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Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Alaves welcome Atletico Madrid to Estadio de Mendizorroza on 10 October 2026 in a La Liga clash that pits one of the division’s strongest home sides against an Atletico team pushing hard at the top of the table. With Alaves sitting 6th and Atletico 2nd after seven rounds, this is the kind of fixture that can shape the early battle for European places and the title race alike.

The hosts have taken 11 points from their opening seven matches and boast three wins from four at Mendizorroza, scoring freely in front of their own fans. Atletico arrive with 16 points, five wins and the division’s joint-strongest away record so far, combining a powerful attack with typically solid defending. With both teams showing good early-season form and several in-form forwards on display, Alaves vs Atletico Madrid looks like one of the standout La Liga predictions for this matchday.

Stats suggest a tight encounter: the prediction models give Atletico Madrid a clear edge, but also assign a high probability to the draw, underlining how tricky Mendizorroza can be for visiting sides. Punters searching for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid betting tips will be weighing Alaves’ strong home numbers against Atletico’s superior squad depth and recent head-to-head edge.

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Key Stats

  • Alaves are 6th with 11 points from 7 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 6 in La Liga.
  • The last three meetings have produced one win for Atletico Madrid, one win for Alaves and one draw, with the most recent clash on 18 January 2026 ending Atletico Madrid 1-0 Alaves.
  • In 2026 La Liga statistics, both sides have kept 3 clean sheets each across 7 matches.

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 6 vs 2
  • Points: 11 vs 16
  • Goals For: 11 vs 16
  • Goals Against: 6 vs 7
  • Clean Sheets: 3 vs 3

Alaves have started the campaign solidly, with 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 7 matches. They have been particularly strong at Estadio de Mendizorroza, winning 3 of 4 home games and scoring 9 goals while conceding just 3. Their goal difference of +5 reflects a side that has balanced attacking output with defensive control.

Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, sit 2nd with 5 wins, 1 draw and only 1 defeat. They have scored 16 goals (an average of 2.3 per match) and conceded just 7. Away from home they have 2 wins and 1 defeat, with 6 goals scored and 4 conceded. The standings context underlines Atletico as the stronger overall unit, but Alaves’ home form means this is far from a straightforward assignment for Diego Simeone’s side.

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Key Matchups

L. Boyé vs Álex Baena

Lucas Boyé has been central to Alaves’ attacking threat. The Argentine forward has 4 goals in 6 appearances, all from the start, playing 484 minutes. He averages nearly two shots per game (11 total, 6 on target) and contributes defensively as well, with 14 tackles and 1 block, showing he is involved in the press and in duels (97 contested, 40 won). His physical presence and work rate make him the natural focal point for Alaves’ direct attacks and crosses.

For Atletico Madrid, Álex Baena has emerged as a key attacking figure. The attacker has scored 4 goals and provided 1 assist in 7 appearances (455 minutes), with 13 shots and 7 on target. His creative output is notable: 232 passes with 14 key passes at an 83% accuracy, indicating he is both a finisher and a playmaker between the lines. If Baena finds pockets of space around the Alaves midfield, he can dictate the tempo and unlock the home defence.

M. Díaz vs J. David

Mariano Díaz offers Alaves a different kind of threat. In 7 appearances (3 starts), he has 3 goals and 3 assists, directly contributing to 6 goals in just 323 minutes. Remarkably, all 8 of his shots have been on target, underlining his efficiency in front of goal. With 12 dribble attempts and 5 successful, plus 3 key passes, he is a dangerous option either as a starter alongside Boyé or as an impact substitute when defences tire.

Jonathan David has made an explosive start for Atletico Madrid. In only 3 appearances (2 starts, 160 minutes), he has scored 3 goals and added 1 assist. With 10 shots and 6 on target, plus 6 key passes from 37 total passes at 86% accuracy, David is a high-impact forward who can stretch defences with his movement and finishing. If he starts or comes off the bench, his pace and clinical edge could be decisive against an Alaves back line that has otherwise been solid.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent meetings between Alaves and Atletico Madrid have been competitive, with tight scorelines and several low-scoring encounters. Both teams have enjoyed home successes, and draws have not been uncommon.

  • 18 January 2026: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Alaves (La Liga)
  • 30 August 2025: Alaves 1-1 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
  • 3 May 2025: Alaves 0-0 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
  • 23 November 2024: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Alaves (La Liga)
  • 21 April 2024: Alaves 2-0 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction

Everything points to a tight, tactical contest. Alaves are strong at home and have multiple in-form attackers in L. Boyé and M. Díaz, supported creatively by Angel Pérez. Their overall La Liga form of 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, plus 11 goals scored, shows they can trouble even the best sides, especially in front of their own fans.

Atletico Madrid, however, come in with superior momentum and quality. Their recent league form string of WDWLWWW reflects five wins from seven, and their last-five performance indices (around 80 in both attack and overall form) underline a team operating at a high level. They average 2.3 goals per match and have conceded only 1.0 per game, with late goals a recurring theme. The prediction metrics give Alaves just a 10% chance of victory, with the draw and Atletico win each rated at 45%. That suggests a very strong likelihood that Alaves do not win, and that Atletico either edge it or share the points in a low-to-medium scoring encounter.

Predicted Score: Alaves 1-1 Atletico Madrid

Alaves Recent Form

Alaves’ recent form in La Liga reads DLLWW, reflecting an upturn after a slow patch. Across 7 matches they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 6. At home they have been impressive: 3 wins from 4, 9 goals scored and only 3 conceded, averaging 2.3 goals for and 0.8 against per home game. They have kept 3 clean sheets in total and failed to score only twice, indicating a generally reliable attack.

Atletico Madrid Recent Form

Atletico Madrid’s form line of WWWLW in the standings is backed up by broader metrics showing WDWLWWW across recent fixtures. They have 5 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 7 league matches, scoring 16 and conceding 7. Away from home they have won 2 of 3, with 6 goals scored and 4 conceded, averaging 2.0 goals for and 1.3 against on their travels. They have also kept 3 clean sheets and failed to score only once, underlining a consistently dangerous attack.

Alaves Possible Starting Lineup

GK: Sivera; Defenders: Jonny, N. Tenaglia, N. Valentini, Hugo Novoa; Midfielders: Antonio Blanco, Guevara, Carles Aleñá, Angel Pérez; Forwards: L. Boyé, M. Díaz.

Alaves have typically alternated between 3-5-2 and 5-3-2 systems this season, with both shapes used multiple times. With that in mind, Sivera should continue in goal, protected by a flexible back line that can shift between three and five depending on game state. In midfield, the combination of Antonio Blanco and Guevara offers defensive balance and ball circulation, while Carles Aleñá and Angel Pérez provide creativity and ball progression. Up front, the in-form pairing of L. Boyé and M. Díaz gives Alaves both physical presence and movement, with the option to introduce additional attackers like Toni Martínez or Miguel Rodríguez from the bench.

Atletico Madrid Possible Starting Lineup

GK: J. Oblak; Defenders: Álex Grimaldo, D. Hancko, Robin Le Normand, Marcos Llorente; Midfielders: Koke, J. Cardoso, Pablo Barrios, Lee Kang-In, Álex Baena; Forward: J. David.

Atletico Madrid have mainly lined up in a 4-4-2, with occasional switches to 4-1-4-1 and 3-4-2-1. A back four of Grimaldo, Hancko, Le Normand and Marcos Llorente provides a blend of ball-playing ability and defensive solidity. In midfield, Koke and J. Cardoso can anchor the centre, with Pablo Barrios and Lee Kang-In offering energy and creativity. Further forward, Álex Baena is likely to operate between the lines supporting Jonathan David, who has been clinical in limited minutes. G. Simeone, A. Sørloth and A. Lookman give Simeone strong attacking alternatives from the bench.

Alaves Team News

No significant absences reported.

Atletico Madrid Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Alaves:

  • None reported.

Atletico Madrid:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

  • Result Tip: Atletico Madrid Draw No Bet or Double Chance (Draw or Atletico). Prediction metrics give Alaves only a 10% chance of victory, with draw and Atletico both at 45%. Atletico are unbeaten in 6 of their 7 league matches and have a strong recent H2H record. The 1x2 market prices Atletico between 1.75 and 1.91 away, implying an approximate win probability range of 52.4% (1 ÷ 1.91 × 100) to 57.1% (1 ÷ 1.75 × 100). Given Alaves’ home strength, a safer angle is to back Atletico on the “draw or Atletico Madrid” double-chance line, which will be shorter than the straight away win but still attractive for accumulators.
  • Goals Tip: Under 3.5 total goals. Both sides have seen relatively controlled scorelines: Alaves average 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match, while Atletico average 2.3 for and 1.0 against. Recent H2H at Mendizorroza includes 0-0 and 1-1 draws, and the last five meetings have seen only one game with more than 3 goals. With both teams tactically disciplined and a high probability of a tight contest, under 3.5 goals looks a sensible play, especially if priced around the typical favourite range for that line.
  • Value Tip: Anytime goalscorer – L. Boyé or Álex Baena (small stake). L. Boyé has 4 goals in 6 appearances and is central to everything Alaves do in attack, while Álex Baena has 4 goals and 1 assist in 7 games, with strong shot and key-pass numbers. With the 1x2 market making Alaves clear underdogs at 4.30–3.76 (implied win probability roughly 23.3% to 26.6%) and Atletico favourites, individual scorer prices on these two in-form attackers could offer value relative to team win odds, particularly in a match that may finish level but still feature one of them on the scoresheet.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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