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AS Roma vs Cagliari Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

AS Roma welcome Cagliari to Stadio Olimpico in Rome on 27 October 2026 for a Serie A Round 9 clash that could further solidify the hosts’ top‑four credentials. Roma sit 3rd with 18 points from eight matches, unbeaten and boasting the division’s joint-third best attack and a strong defensive record.

Cagliari arrive in 8th place on 13 points after eight games, a respectable start built on resilience and narrow wins, but with a negative goal difference and modest scoring numbers. For Roma vs Cagliari predictions and betting tips, the key question is whether Cagliari’s organised shape and improving form can slow down one of Serie A’s most balanced sides at a venue where Roma have been dominant in this head‑to‑head.

AS Roma vs Cagliari Key Stats

  • Roma are 3rd in Serie A with 18 points from 8 matches (5 wins, 3 draws, 0 defeats), scoring 19 and conceding just 6.
  • The last three meetings at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (05 February 2024, 16 March 2025, 09 February 2026) all ended in Roma home wins to nil: 4-0, 1-0, and 2-0.
  • Roma’s 2026 Serie A statistics show an average of 2.4 goals scored per game and only 0.8 conceded, with 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.

AS Roma vs Cagliari — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 3 vs 8
  • Points: 18 vs 13
  • Goals For: 19 vs 6
  • Goals Against: 6 vs 9
  • Clean Sheets: Roma 5, Cagliari 3 (2026 Serie A statistics)

Roma’s start has been close to flawless: unbeaten in eight, with a +13 goal difference and only 0.75 goals conceded per match in the standings. At home they have taken 10 points from 4 games, scoring 10 and conceding just 3, underlining Stadio Olimpico as a genuine stronghold.

Cagliari, 8th with 13 points, have been more pragmatic. They have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, but their 6 goals scored in 8 games highlight a limited attacking output compared to Roma. Interestingly, they have travelled well: 3 away wins from 4, even if they have conceded 5 goals on the road. The numbers suggest Roma have the superior firepower and defensive solidity, while Cagliari rely on tight margins and discipline.

AS Roma vs Cagliari Key Matchups

Donyell Malen vs Daniel Maldini

Donyell Malen has been Roma’s cutting edge in Serie A 2026. The attacker has 6 goals in 6 appearances, averaging a goal every 66 minutes across 398 minutes played. With 17 shots (10 on target) and a rating of 7.5, he is both high‑volume and efficient. His 19 dribble attempts with 12 successful underline his ability to beat defenders, while 8 key passes and 73 total passes at 84% accuracy show he contributes to build‑up as well as finishing. Discipline is a minor concern — 1 yellow and 1 red card — but his overall impact is elite.

For Cagliari, Daniel Maldini is the primary attacking threat from midfield. In 7 appearances (all starts) and 505 minutes, he has scored 4 of Cagliari’s 6 league goals, plus a converted penalty, with a strong 7.15 rating. Maldini has 9 shots (5 on target) and 9 key passes, combining goal threat with creativity. His 170 passes at 81% accuracy and 8 interceptions reflect a two‑way contribution. If Cagliari are to nick something in Rome, Maldini’s ability to exploit transitions and set‑pieces will be crucial against Roma’s back line.

Paulo Dybala vs Michel Ndary Adopo

Paulo Dybala has yet to score in the league this season but leads Serie A in assists with 4 for Roma. In 6 appearances (496 minutes), he has produced 25 key passes and 269 total passes at 81% accuracy, underlining his role as the creative hub between midfield and attack. His 19 shots (6 on target) suggest the goals will likely come, while 4 tackles and 3 interceptions highlight his work rate in Roma’s pressing structure.

Michel Ndary Adopo offers Cagliari balance in midfield. Across 7 starts and 630 minutes, he has 2 assists, 9 key passes and 259 passes at an impressive 84% accuracy. Defensively, 7 tackles and 5 interceptions show he can disrupt Roma’s rhythm, while his discipline (no cards) is important in a game where Cagliari will spend long spells without the ball. The duel between Dybala’s creativity and Adopo’s screening will shape how often Roma can feed Malen and Matías Soulé in dangerous zones.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

This has been a historically favourable fixture for Roma, especially in the capital, though Cagliari have occasionally sprung surprises in Sardinia. Recent clashes have generally been tight on the scoreboard, with Roma’s home dominance a recurring theme.

  • 09 February 2026: AS Roma 2-0 Cagliari (Serie A)
  • 07 December 2025: Cagliari 1-0 AS Roma (Serie A)
  • 16 March 2025: AS Roma 1-0 Cagliari (Serie A)
  • 18 August 2024: Cagliari 0-0 AS Roma (Serie A)
  • 05 February 2024: AS Roma 4-0 Cagliari (Serie A)

AS Roma vs Cagliari Prediction

Stats suggest Roma should control territory and chances. They average 2.4 goals scored per game in Serie A 2026 and have conceded just 6 times in 8 matches. Their last‑five metrics are strong (8 goals for, 3 against in 5 games), with comparison indices favouring them in attack (62 vs 38) and defence (67 vs 33). Cagliari, while competitive, score only 0.9 per game and concede 1.0, with most of their goals coming in a short 16–30 minute window.

The prediction model gives Roma a 45% chance of winning, with a 45% probability of a draw and only 10% for a Cagliari victory. That aligns with market sentiment, where Roma are a heavy favourite. Given Roma’s clean‑sheet record (5 in 8) and their history of shutting Cagliari out at home, a low‑scoring home win looks the most likely outcome, especially if Dybala can unlock a compact visiting defence and Malen maintains his finishing streak.

Predicted Score: AS Roma 2-0 Cagliari

AS Roma Recent Form

Roma’s recent form is excellent. In the league they are unbeaten, with a standings form line of DWDDW across their last five Serie A fixtures. Broader 2026 statistics show a longer positive stretch (WWWWDDWD), underpinned by a strong defensive base and consistent scoring. They have also kept 5 clean sheets in 8 league games, indicating that even on off‑days in attack they remain hard to beat.

Cagliari Recent Form

Cagliari’s recent trajectory has been mixed but generally positive. Their standings form reads LLDWW over the last five, reflecting a recovery after back‑to‑back defeats with two wins that pushed them into the top half. In the wider 2026 sample (WLWWWDL), they have stitched together a three‑match winning streak at one point, though their low scoring output means many games are decided by fine margins.

AS Roma Possible Starting Lineup

Key available players (by position): GK: P. Gollini, M. Svilar, G. De Marzi, Devis Vasquez; Defenders: L. Balerdi, D. Ghilardi, Hermoso, K. Koulierakis, G. Mancini, E. Ndicka, D. Rensch, M. Seck; Midfielders: N. Molina, E. Lulli, Wesley, M. Bah, B. Cristante, G. Giammattei, M. Koné, L. Pellegrini, N. Pisilli, M. de Roon, P. Dybala; Forwards: Rodrigo Mora, A. Arena, M. Camara, S. Castro, D. Malen, M. Soulé.

Roma’s 2026 statistics show a clear tactical identity built around a back three. They have most frequently lined up in 3-4-2-1, with occasional shifts to 3-4-1-2 and 3-5-2. Expect a three‑centre‑back setup featuring Hermoso and Mancini, wing‑backs providing width, and a creative line of Dybala and Soulé behind Malen. With only one confirmed absence, depth in midfield (Cristante, de Roon, Koné, Pellegrini) gives Roma multiple options to control the centre and sustain pressure.

Cagliari Possible Starting Lineup

Key available players (by position): GK: E. Caprile, B. Radunović, A. Sherri; Defenders: Y. Mina, A. Obert, Zé Pedro, J. Rodríguez, Y. Sugawara, G. Aurelio; Midfielders: M. Adopo, A. Akarakiri, A. Deiola, J. Fazzini, M. Felici, R. Gagliardini, N. Grandu, R. Kofler, J. Liteta, D. Maldini, Y. Massolin, A. Romano, Ivan Stoyanov Sulev, H. Winks; Forwards: R. Ciervo, A. Fadera, Kevin Carlos, P. Mendy, M'Bala Nzola, A. Sugamele, Y. Trepy.

Cagliari have been tactically flexible in 2026, using 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-2-1 most often, but also 4-4-1-1, 5-3-2 and 4-3-1-2. Away from home in Rome, a back four with a double pivot (potentially Gagliardini and Adopo) protecting the defence looks likely, with Maldini operating as the advanced playmaker. Winks, Deiola and Felici offer different midfield profiles, while Nzola and Kevin Carlos provide focal points up front. Their clean‑sheet record (3 in 7) suggests they can defend deep effectively, but they will need more support around Maldini to threaten Roma’s goal.

AS Roma Team News

Roma have one confirmed absentee for this fixture: midfielder M. Bah is ruled out.

Cagliari Team News

Cagliari also have one confirmed absence, with a squad player missing from selection.

Injuries & Suspensions

AS Roma:

  • M. Bah — Reason: Jumpers Knee

Cagliari:

  • Riyad Idrissi — Reason: Jumpers Knee

Betting Tips: AS Roma vs Cagliari

Exactly 3 distinct markets, all grounded in current stats and prices.

  • Result Tip: Back AS Roma to win. Roma are unbeaten in the league, dominant at home in this fixture, and favoured by both prediction (45% win, 45% draw, 10% away) and comparison indices. The market strongly backs them: home odds range from 1.33 to 1.40, implying an approximate probability between 71.4% (1 ÷ 1.40 × 100) and 75.2% (1 ÷ 1.33 × 100). That aligns with Roma’s superior goal difference and clean‑sheet record.
  • Goals Tip: Under 3.5 total goals. Roma’s league under/over profile shows only 2 of 8 matches going over 3.5, while Cagliari have yet to feature in a game over 2.5 according to their 2026 stats. Recent H2H at Olimpico has produced 2-0, 1-0 and 4-0 scorelines; with Cagliari’s low scoring rate (0.9 per game), a controlled Roma win in a match with three or fewer goals is a logical angle. Use the dedicated goals market odds from your bookmaker of choice.
  • Value Tip: Donyell Malen to score anytime. With 6 goals in 6 appearances, high shot volume (17 total, 10 on target) and strong dribbling numbers, Malen is Roma’s primary finisher. Cagliari concede an average of 1.0 goals per game and have already suffered a heavy 4-0 away defeat in their 2026 record. While player‑scorer odds are not listed here, Malen’s current form suggests his price could offer better value than the short home win odds, especially combined in a same‑game multiple.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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