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Barcelona vs Alaves Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Barcelona welcome Alaves to Camp Nou on 31 October 2026 in La Liga’s Regular Season - 11, with the hosts looking to consolidate their position at the top of the table. Playing in front of their own fans at one of European football’s iconic venues, Barcelona arrive as overwhelming favourites but with a recent reminder that Alaves can hurt them.

Barcelona sit 1st with 27 points from 10 matches, built on a prolific attack that has already produced 40 goals. Alaves, meanwhile, are 7th on 12 points from the same number of games, solidly mid-table but trending down after a poor recent run. For those looking for Barcelona vs Alaves predictions and betting tips, the clash sets up as a classic meeting of the league’s most explosive attack against one of the division’s more conservative outfits.

Alaves’ 1-0 home win over Barcelona on 13 May 2026 in La Liga is still fresh in the memory and will give the visitors belief. But with Barcelona’s attacking stars such as Raphinha and Lamine Yamal in outstanding form, and the champions-elect averaging 4.0 goals per game this campaign, the pressure is firmly on Alaves to find a way to contain them over 90 minutes.

Barcelona vs Alaves Key Stats

  • Barcelona are 1st in La Liga with 27 points from 10 matches, scoring 40 and conceding 11.
  • The last meeting on 13 May 2026 saw Alaves beat Barcelona 1-0 in Vitoria-Gasteiz in La Liga.
  • Across 10 league matches this season, Barcelona average 4.0 goals scored per game and have kept 4 clean sheets in league play.

Barcelona vs Alaves — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 1 vs 7
  • Points: 27 vs 12
  • Goals For: 40 vs 14
  • Goals Against: 11 vs 11
  • Clean Sheets: Barcelona 4, Alaves 3 (league statistics)

After 10 matches, Barcelona’s dominance is clear. They have won 9 and lost just once, with a goal difference of +29. Their attack is operating at a remarkable level, scoring 18 times at home and 22 away, while conceding only 11 overall. A nine-game winning streak earlier in the campaign underlines just how relentlessly they have been collecting points.

Alaves, 7th with 12 points, have a far more modest profile. They have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, with 14 goals scored and 11 conceded. At home they have been relatively strong (3 wins from 6), but away they are yet to win in 4 attempts, with 0 victories, 2 draws and 2 defeats, scoring just 3 and conceding 5. Barcelona’s combination of firepower and home advantage makes this a daunting trip for Alaves despite their respectable overall defensive record.

Barcelona vs Alaves Key Matchups

Raphinha vs L. Boyé

Raphinha has been the standout attacking force in La Liga so far. For Barcelona, he has 13 goals and 3 assists in just 9 appearances (8 starts), playing 661 minutes with an exceptional rating of 8.49. He has taken 25 shots with 17 on target, underlining his efficiency, and also created 18 key passes with an 83% passing accuracy. Add 3 converted penalties from 3 attempts and his threat in the final third is obvious.

For Alaves, L. Boyé is the main goal threat. He has 5 goals in 9 appearances (all starts) and a rating of 7.00. With 18 shots and 10 on target, he is capable of punishing any defensive lapse. Boyé also works hard off the ball, with 16 tackles and 146 duels contested, winning 55. This duel will be less direct positionally but symbolically pits Barcelona’s elite finisher against Alaves’ focal point in attack. If Boyé cannot make the most of limited chances, Alaves will struggle to keep pace with Raphinha’s output.

Lamine Yamal vs M. Díaz

Lamine Yamal has emerged as Barcelona’s creative hub and second goal source. In 10 appearances (all starts), he has 8 goals and 6 assists, with a superb rating of 8.18. He has produced 41 shots (16 on target) and 33 key passes, while completing 40 successful dribbles from 67 attempts. His combination of scoring, chance creation and dribbling makes him incredibly difficult to contain.

On the other side, M. Díaz is Alaves’ key link player. In 10 appearances (4 starts), he has 3 goals and 4 assists with a rating of 7.06. He has 10 shots (9 on target) and 5 key passes, and operates efficiently in limited minutes (443). If Díaz can help Alaves transition quickly and make the most of counter-attacks, he can test Barcelona’s defence. However, in open play, Yamal’s influence is likely to be far greater over the full 90 minutes.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent meetings between Barcelona and Alaves have generally favoured the Catalans, though Alaves’ win earlier in 2026 shows this fixture can still produce surprises.

  • 13 May 2026: Alaves 1-0 Barcelona (La Liga)
  • 29 November 2025: Barcelona 3-1 Alaves (La Liga)
  • 2 February 2025: Barcelona 1-0 Alaves (La Liga)
  • 6 October 2024: Alaves 0-3 Barcelona (La Liga)
  • 3 February 2024: Alaves 1-3 Barcelona (La Liga)

Barcelona vs Alaves Prediction

All indicators point towards a Barcelona-dominated contest. Their recent league record shows 9 wins from 10 and an average of 4.0 goals scored per match, with only 1.1 conceded. Alaves, by contrast, average 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded, and their last five games have been poor, with their last-five form index at just 13 compared to Barcelona’s 80.

The prediction model gives Barcelona a 45% chance of winning, with the draw also at 45% and Alaves at 10%. The high draw probability reflects some caution after Alaves’ 1-0 victory in May and Barcelona’s occasional defensive lapses, but Barcelona remain the clear expected winners, especially at Camp Nou where they have scored 18 in 5 league matches. Given the negative goal thresholds in the goals prediction field, a conservative scoreline is appropriate. Expect Barcelona to control possession, create multiple chances through Raphinha and Lamine Yamal, and eventually break down an Alaves side that will likely sit deep.

Predicted Score: Barcelona 2-0 Alaves

Barcelona Recent Form

Barcelona’s recent form is outstanding. In the league they have 9 wins and just 1 defeat from 10 matches, with a long winning streak earlier in the campaign. Their last-five performance index is 80, with 19 goals scored and 7 conceded across those 5 matches. They are yet to draw a game, underlining their all-or-nothing but generally dominant approach.

Alaves Recent Form

Alaves’ recent form is mixed to poor. Their league form string shows early positive results but more recent inconsistency, and over the last five matches their form index is only 13. In that span, they have scored just 3 goals (0.6 per game) and conceded 6 (1.2 per game). Away from home they have not won in 4 attempts this season, which is a major concern heading into Camp Nou.

Barcelona Possible Starting Lineup

Potential key players (not a confirmed XI):
Goalkeepers: D. Livaković, W. Szczęsny, Joan García
Defenders: Joao Cancelo, Alejandro Balde, A. Christensen, J. Koundé, Eric García, Pau Cubarsí Paredes
Midfielders: F. de Jong, Pedri, Gavi, Dani Olmo, Fermín, Marc Bernal, Rodri
Forwards: Raphinha, Lamine Yamal, Gabriel Jesus, A. Gordon, K. Adeyemi, R. Bardghji

Barcelona have the depth to maintain a high-intensity, attacking style. Their most-used formations are 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1, both of which suit wide forwards like Raphinha and Lamine Yamal, supported by creative midfielders such as Pedri, Gavi, Dani Olmo and Fermín. With no listed absences, the coach can rotate between two strong goalkeepers and a deep defensive unit, while still fielding an elite front line.

Alaves Possible Starting Lineup

Potential key players (not a confirmed XI):
Goalkeepers: Sivera, A. Giménez
Defenders: Jonny, N. Tenaglia, N. Valentini, Yusi, V. Koski, Angel Pérez, A. Rebbach
Midfielders: Carles Aleñá, Antonio Blanco, Guevara, C. Benavídez, Pablo Ibáñez, Selu Diallo, Mikel Rodríguez, Denis Suárez
Forwards: L. Boyé, M. Díaz, Hugo Novoa, Toni Martínez, Aitor Mañas, Miguel Rodríguez

Alaves have alternated between 3-5-2 and 5-3-2 this season, reflecting a flexible but generally cautious approach. Expect a compact back line with wing-backs, a hard-working midfield, and a front two built around L. Boyé’s physical presence and M. Díaz’s movement and link play. Angel Pérez, who contributes both defensively and creatively, is another important piece, though his disciplinary record (1 red card) is something to monitor in a high-pressure away game.

Barcelona Team News

No significant absences reported.

Alaves Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Barcelona:

  • None reported.

Alaves:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Barcelona vs Alaves

Exactly 3 distinct markets with data-backed angles:

  • Result Tip: Back Barcelona to win. Barcelona are top of La Liga with 9 wins from 10, while Alaves are winless away (0 wins in 4). The prediction model gives Barcelona a 45% win chance versus only 10% for Alaves, and the odds strongly agree: home prices range from 1.07 to 1.14, implying roughly 87.7% to 93.5% probability. Even at short odds, Barcelona are the justified choice in result markets.
  • Goals Tip: Over 2.5 total goals. Barcelona average 4.0 goals scored per league game and 1.1 conceded, while Alaves’ matches average 2.5 total goals (1.4 for, 1.1 against). Historically, this fixture at Camp Nou often produces goals (3-1 in November 2025, 1-0 in February 2025, 2-1 in November 2023, 5-1 in February 2021). With bookmakers setting Barcelona as an overwhelming favourite, goal lines are likely to be high, but the attacking metrics support an over 2.5 goals angle at any reasonable price derived from the totals markets.
  • Value Tip: Raphinha to score anytime (or Barcelona’s top scorer-focused markets). Raphinha has 13 goals in 9 appearances and is also on penalties (3 scored from 3). His shot volume (25 total, 17 on target) and involvement in key passes (18) make him central to Barcelona’s attack. Markets that focus on him scoring, scoring first, or registering multiple shots on target could offer better value than the short match odds. With Alaves conceding 1.1 goals per game and likely to defend deep, Raphinha’s ability to create and finish chances stands out as a strong statistical edge.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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