Cape Verde's Stunning World Cup Journey
Cape Verde keep tearing up the script. After holding Spain, they have now stood firm against Uruguay as well, and the so‑called minnows are fast becoming one of the stories of this World Cup.
This time, though, fewer people were caught cold. When Cape Verde faced Spain, an extraordinary 99.65% of users on the BBC’s new predictor game backed them to lose. Against Uruguay, that figure dropped to 83%. Faith in the underdogs is still thin, but it’s growing.
The predictor game is providing its own subplot. Users are not just playing along; they are outperforming the experts. Across the second round of 24 group fixtures, the crowd beat both BBC Sport predictions pundit Chris Sutton and AI.
Sutton improved on his opening round, going from 12 correct calls to 14. The AI model, powered by Microsoft Copilot Chat and simply asked to “predict the results of the second round of World Cup group games”, also sharpened up, climbing from 13 to 15 correct results. The users, though, surged ahead: 18 right out of 24, a huge leap from their previous tally of 13.
Now comes the decisive swing of the group stage. Scotland against Brazil. England facing Panama. Mexico, Argentina and Portugal all juggling rotation with ambition. Every prediction suddenly feels heavier.
Mexico v Czech Republic – Rotation at the Azteca
Mexico City / Thursday, 25 June / 02:00 BST
Mexico are already through as group winners. Job done, at least on paper. That security almost certainly means sweeping changes when they return to Estadio Azteca.
For the Czech Republic, that offers a sliver of hope. They need a win to have any chance of progressing, and a rotated Mexico side is far more inviting than the full-throttle version that thumped South Africa there earlier in the tournament.
But this is Mexico at altitude, in front of their own. The Azteca is unforgiving for visiting legs and lungs. Sutton, who watched Mexico dismantle South Africa from the commentary box, knows the emotional charge in that arena. As his 5 Live colleague Alistair Bruce-Ball reminded him, this team will want to put on another show for their country, even with changes.
Despite that, Sutton leans towards the upset that would keep the Czech dream alive.
Sutton’s prediction: 0-1
AI’s prediction: 1-2
Argentina v Jordan – Messi wrapped in cotton wool
Dallas / Sunday, 28 June / 03:00
Argentina have already wrapped up the group. With qualification secure, the focus inside their camp turns to preservation, not spectacle. Changes are coming, and Sutton believes one of them will be the biggest of all: Lionel Messi left out of the starting XI.
The logic is brutal but clear. Rest him now, protect his legs, and tilt the odds towards lifting the trophy. That approach, though, dents his Golden Boot chances and slows his push to extend his record as the World Cup’s all‑time leading scorer.
His fans will not enjoy the sight of him on the bench, but Argentina can afford that luxury. Jordan, Sutton argues, simply cannot live with this squad’s firepower, with or without their captain on the pitch.
Sutton’s prediction: 0-3
AI’s prediction: 0-3
Portugal v Colombia – Ronaldo scores, but is it enough?
Miami / Sunday, 28 June / 00:30
This one matters. Portugal need a win to top the group, and they know it. Their demolition of Uzbekistan showed what they can do when the mood takes them, yet Colombia represent a far stiffer examination.
Sutton sees tension here. He expects goals from Cristiano Ronaldo – both of Portugal’s, in fact – but not the control required to close the group out on their own terms. Colombia, in his view, have enough to punch back and claim a draw that would deny Portugal first place.
AI is less forgiving, siding with Portugal to edge it and secure the statement result they want.
Ronaldo’s future looms over everything. Sutton cannot resist a nod to the enduring saga, suggesting the forward will simply carry on until the 2040 World Cup.
Sutton’s prediction: 2-2
AI’s prediction: 1-2
England v Panama – Tuchel under pressure to respond
New York / Saturday, 27 June / 22:00
Thomas Tuchel’s half-time words worked wonders against Croatia. Against Ghana, they fell flat. England’s manager walked into the dressing room in a similar situation and left with a very different outcome, his side unable to turn control into victory.
Now comes Panama, and with it, little margin for error. Tuchel is expected to tweak rather than tear up his XI. Harry Kane will lead the line again, but the flanks are under review. Bukayo Saka and Marcus Rashford are both pushing to start, with Noni Madueke vulnerable after failing to convince.
At left-back, Sutton is clear: Nico O’Reilly must come in for Djed Spence. In his eyes, O’Reilly simply offers more all-round quality in that role.
Panama have been stubborn. Two games, two 1-0 defeats, and plenty of resistance. Yet Sutton sees England finally finding a ruthless edge. He expects Kane to respond to that glaring late miss against Ghana and to drag the scoreline away from Panama’s comfort zone.
Sutton’s prediction: 0-3
AI’s prediction: 0-3
The final round of group fixtures will decide more than who goes through. It will reveal whether the collective instinct of millions can keep outfoxing the pundit in the studio and the algorithm on the server – and whether this World Cup still has room for another Cape Verde‑sized shock.
