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Everton vs Liverpool: Premier League Derby Preview

Everton host Liverpool at Hill Dickinson Stadium on 19 April 2026 in a high‑stakes Premier League derby, with the home side sitting 8th on 47 points and Liverpool 5th on 52 points. The table context matters: Everton are pushing for European contention, while Liverpool are trying to secure a Champions League league‑phase place.

Looking at overall league form, Everton’s campaign has been solidly mid‑upper table: 13 wins, 8 draws, 11 losses from 32 matches, with a goal difference of +2 (39 scored, 37 conceded). At home they are balanced (6‑4‑6, goals 21‑19), which suggests competitiveness but not dominance at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Liverpool, by contrast, have a slightly stronger overall profile: 15 wins, 7 draws, 10 losses, goal difference +10 (52‑42). Their attack is clearly more productive (1.6 goals per game versus Everton’s 1.2), but they are more open defensively, conceding 1.3 per match compared with Everton’s 1.2.

The prediction model’s “comparison” section tilts the overall strength very slightly towards Liverpool (total index 52.7% vs 47.3%), but form and defensive metrics favour Everton. On form, Everton are rated at 59% versus Liverpool’s 41%, and defensively Everton edge it 54% to 46%. Attacking indices are level at 50% each. The last‑five‑matches snapshot is instructive: both sides have scored 10 goals in their last 5 games (2.0 per match), but Everton have conceded 6 (1.2 per game) against Liverpool’s 7 (1.4 per game). That aligns with the model’s view that Everton are slightly more stable at the back right now.

Everton’s late‑goal pattern is notable: 31.58% of their league goals arrive from the 76th minute onwards, while 23.68% of their goals conceded also come in that phase. Liverpool show an even more extreme late‑game profile: 30.00% of their goals scored and 38.64% of their goals conceded occur from the 76th minute onwards. For in‑play bettors, this points strongly towards a volatile final quarter of the match, with high probability of late goals or swings.

Head‑to‑Head Record

Head‑to‑head in the Premier League, Liverpool have dominated the broader decade, but recent meetings show Everton can compete, especially at home. The last five derbies in the data are all league fixtures:

  • On 20 September 2025 at Anfield (Premier League, Regular Season – 5), Liverpool beat Everton 2‑1.
  • On 2 April 2025 at Anfield (Premier League, Regular Season – 30), Liverpool won 1‑0.
  • On 12 February 2025 at Goodison Park (Premier League, Regular Season – 15), Everton and Liverpool drew 2‑2.
  • On 24 April 2024 at Goodison Park (Premier League, Regular Season – 29), Everton defeated Liverpool 2‑0.
  • On 21 October 2023 at Anfield (Premier League, Regular Season – 9), Liverpool beat Everton 2‑0.

Extending back through the JSON, every listed head‑to‑head is a Premier League match; there are no cup or friendly fixtures to separate out. Counting those 10 league derbies provided, Liverpool have 7 wins, Everton 2, and there has been 1 draw. However, in the four most recent games at Everton’s home (Goodison Park), Everton have 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss, which shows a much more balanced picture when Liverpool travel across the city.

The model’s probability output is striking: 35% home win, 35% draw, 30% away win. That implies Everton are at least as likely as Liverpool to avoid defeat, despite Liverpool’s superior league position and historical edge. The core prediction explicitly names Everton as the “winner” in the sense of the safer side on a win‑or‑draw basis, and the advice is “Double chance : Everton or draw”, backed by a win‑or‑draw flag set to true.

Comparing this with the market, most major bookmakers price Liverpool as away favourites, with away odds clustered roughly between 2.09 and 2.26, while Everton’s home win ranges around 3.00–3.35 and the draw around 3.40–3.75. Converting the model’s 70% implied probability that Everton avoid defeat (35% win + 35% draw) against odds that collectively treat Liverpool as favourites suggests value lies on the home side in safety‑net markets.

Prediction and betting verdict, strictly aligned with the official model and current odds: expect a tight, low‑margin derby where Everton’s recent form and defensive solidity at home give them a strong chance to frustrate Liverpool. The recommended betting angle is to follow the model’s advice and back Everton or draw (double chance), taking advantage of the market’s preference for Liverpool despite the prediction data leaning towards the hosts avoiding defeat.

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