Levante vs Osasuna: La Liga Clash on 8 May 2026

Relegation fear meets mid-table ambition at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in Valencia on 8 May 2026, as Levante cling to survival hopes while Osasuna arrive chasing a top-half finish and the financial comfort that comes with it.

Season Context

Levante come into this La Liga clash in deep trouble near the bottom. They sit 19th with 33 points from 34 matches, having scored 38 goals and conceded 55. The negative goal difference of -17 underlines a campaign defined by defensive frailty, and with only a handful of games left, every point at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia now feels like a last lifeline.

Osasuna, by contrast, occupy 10th place with 42 points from 34 matches. Their record of 40 goals scored and 42 conceded paints the picture of a side broadly competitive but short of the consistency needed to push higher. Safely clear of the drop yet not out of the race for a top-half finish, they travel to Valencia with the freedom of a team whose main objective is to consolidate their position and, if possible, climb a few rungs.

Form & Momentum

Levante’s recent league form string reads “LDWWL”, a run that mixes promise with lingering vulnerability. Two wins in that sequence hint at a side capable of reacting under pressure (8 wins and 9 draws overall), but 17 defeats and 55 goals conceded show why they remain exposed at the wrong end of the table.

Osasuna arrive on the back of “LWLDD”, a slightly stuttering patch that still reflects a team with a reasonable platform (11 wins and 9 draws overall). Their away record is clearly weaker, with only 2 victories and 11 defeats on the road, but 40 goals scored and 42 conceded across the campaign indicate a competitive mid-table profile rather than a side in freefall.

Head-to-Head Patterns

The recent history between these clubs tilts subtly towards Osasuna, especially in Pamplona. The most recent meeting ended Osasuna 2-0 Levante in La Liga (December 2025), a controlled home win that reinforced the hosts’ authority at Estadio El Sadar. Earlier in the decade, Osasuna also prevailed 3-1 at home in La Liga (March 2022), again finding multiple routes to goal.

In Valencia, the story has been more balanced and cagey. At Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, the sides played out a 0-0 draw in La Liga (December 2021), a result that underlined how tight and attritional this fixture can become when Levante have home advantage and everything to lose.

Tactical Preview

Levante’s statistical profile suggests a team that shifts between different back-four structures in search of balance. They have used 4-2-3-1 most often (11 times), but also leaned heavily on 4-4-2 (10 matches) and 4-1-4-1 (7 matches), with occasional switches to 5-4-1, 4-3-3 and 4-5-1. Across 34 league games they have scored 38 goals (1.1 per match) and conceded 55 (1.6 per match), pointing to a side that tries to be proactive but often leaves space to be punished.

In attack, Levante’s biggest wins — 4-2 at home and 0-4 away — show they can be explosive when their structure clicks. Carlos Espí stands out as a clear focal point: 9 league goals from 21 appearances, with 32 shots and 19 on target, give Levante a penalty-box presence they will look to feed from wide areas and second balls. His 75 duels won from 159 show he can contest physically, an important factor against Osasuna’s rugged back line.

The squad list also hints at how Levante might build around him. Creative and linking options like Pablo Martínez and Jon Ander Olasagasti in midfield, plus wide or support forwards such as Brugui, Iker Losada, Enrique Herrero and José Luis Morales, give the coach scope to choose between a more direct 4-4-2 or a slightly more intricate 4-2-3-1. With 12 matches this league campaign where they have failed to score, the emphasis will be on getting numbers close to Espí quickly and avoiding isolation.

Defensively, Levante’s issues are clear: 26 goals conceded at home and 29 away, only 8 clean sheets in total, and some heavy defeats (up to 4 goals conceded at home and 5 away). The back line, built from options like Dela, Unai Elgezabal, Manu Sánchez, J. Toljan and Diego Pampín, will need protection from a midfield that has at times struggled to shield the centre. Their disciplinary record — multiple yellow-card spikes across matches and several red-card incidents in the league data — underlines the risk of desperation creeping into their defending when under sustained pressure.

Osasuna, meanwhile, are more structurally settled. Their most used system is also 4-2-3-1 (19 matches), but they are comfortable flipping into back-three shapes such as 3-4-3 (7 matches), 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2 (2 matches each), plus occasional 3-1-4-2 and 5-4-1. This flexibility allows them to adjust to venue and opponent: a back four when they want more width and control, or a back three to stabilise against counter-attacks and exploit wing-backs.

In attack, Osasuna’s 40 league goals (1.2 per match) are heavily skewed towards home production — 29 at Estadio El Sadar versus 11 away — which explains their modest away record. Yet they possess a genuine difference-maker in A. Budimir. The Croatian forward has 16 league goals from 33 appearances, with 76 shots (36 on target) and 6 successful penalties from 6 scored. His aerial and physical presence (339 duels, 161 won) make him a constant threat for Levante’s centre-backs, especially on crosses and set pieces.

Behind and around Budimir, creators like Aimar Oroz and Moi Gómez, plus wide options such as Kike Barja, Raul Moro and Roberto Arroyo, give Osasuna multiple ways to progress the ball. In midfield, Moncayola’s 4 assists and high passing volume (1,268 passes at 80% accuracy) point to a player who can dictate tempo and switch play, while Lucas Torró offers the screening and second-ball work that allows the more advanced players to take risks.

At the back, Osasuna’s 42 goals conceded (1.2 per match) and 7 clean sheets suggest a defence that is solid rather than watertight. Catena is central to that structure: 3 goals, 2 assists and 1,498 passes at 85% accuracy, but also 10 yellow cards and one red, underline a defender who leads aggressively and sometimes walks a disciplinary tightrope. Away from home, where they have shipped 22 goals in 17 games and failed to score 11 times, maintaining concentration and avoiding costly cards will be crucial.

Statistical Snapshot

• Competition: La Liga, season 2025 — 8 May 2026.
• Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia.
• Prediction: Win or draw — Double chance : draw or Osasuna.
• Win Probabilities: Home 10% / Draw 45% / Away 45%.
• Model: Levante 44.5% — Osasuna 55.5%.

Betting Verdict

The prediction model leans towards Osasuna avoiding defeat, and the head-to-head record in recent years — including a 2-0 home win in December 2025 and a 3-1 victory in March 2022 — supports the idea that they generally handle this matchup well. Levante’s urgency and occasional attacking surges at home are offset by a leaky defence (55 goals conceded) and the pressure of their 19th-place position. Osasuna’s away record is poor, but their overall balance (40 scored, 42 conceded) and the presence of a prolific striker in A. Budimir suggest they are well equipped to take something from Valencia.

With bookmakers broadly pricing the home win around 2.5–2.7 and the away win roughly 2.7–2.95, the market sees this as close to a pick’em. Given Osasuna’s slightly stronger statistical profile and the model’s “Win or draw” stance, the most coherent angle is to follow the advice and back “Double chance: draw or Osasuna” at roughly standard odds for that type of protection, trusting the visitors’ structure and Levante’s defensive fragility to tilt the balance away from a home victory.