Manchester City Wobble, Arsenal Surge: A New Title Race
The numbers tell you one thing. The mood around the Premier League tells you something else entirely.
Manchester City, winners of six of the last nine titles, were thumped 3-0 by reigning champions Arsenal in the Community Shield in Cardiff. On its own, it’s a glorified curtain-raiser. Put it beside the confirmation that World Cup 2026 standout Rodri is off to Barcelona and the picture sharpens: the post-Pep Guardiola era under Enzo Maresca might be bumpier than anyone at the Etihad had planned.
The bookmakers reacted instantly. Arsenal’s odds tightened from 6-4 to 5-4 after that dominant display. City, who still managed a domestic cup double last season and finished league runners-up, drifted from 11-2 to 7-2. Liverpool sit at 6-1, Chelsea and Manchester United at 8-1, Tottenham 28-1 and Aston Villa 66-1.
Two years ago, virtually nobody wanted to bet against City making it five titles in a row. A year ago, Liverpool’s shock triumph under Arne Slot and a lavish post-title spending spree had many convinced they’d build a dynasty. They finished fifth and Slot was gone by the end of his second season. Arsenal don’t quite inspire that same stampede of blind faith, but across a wide spread of fan-pundits, nobody is ruling them out of going back-to-back.
One constant remains: everyone has a prediction, and nobody is short of an opinion.
Shifting hierarchies and a new “Big Six-and-a-bit”
The informal pecking order has hardened. The “unofficial Big Six” now has a stubborn extra guest: Arsenal, City, Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Spurs. For the rest, it’s a maze of entrenched money, Champions League ambitions and revolving-door managers.
Last season, Chelsea wrecked almost every prediction, slumping to 10th despite being tipped by many for the top four. Two years ago, a few pundits at least nailed the four Champions League places, even if they didn’t get the order right. Nobody managed that last term.
This year, there’s a twist. With the league moving to a top-five system in the predictions, the margins of error stretch a little. One writer even admits that his wild shout on Nottingham Forest was one more reason to expand the grid. His own new five? A London power play: 1. Chelsea 2. Arsenal 3. Liverpool 4. Tottenham 5. Brentford.
The rest of the cast weigh in from all corners of the Premier League map.
Leeds cling on, Everton reload, Liverpool reset
From Leeds, labor attorney Paul Galligan is simply relieved. Survival was the job; survival was achieved. With Coventry joining Leeds and Sunderland in the top flight, he savours an “old school” Premier League and sees a platform being laid at Elland Road. Three starters have arrived – James Trafford, Tarik Muharemović and Harry Wilson – but he worries about squad depth and wants another goalscorer before dreaming of Europe. His top five? Chelsea, Arsenal, City, United and “Pool” in that order.
On Merseyside, Everton’s second season at the gleaming Hill Dickinson Stadium comes with a demand: no more sleepwalking. James Rogers, speaking for the New York Evertonians, is still smarting from a run of three points in seven games that torched European hopes. Christian Norgaard, Hayden Hackney and Brennan Johnson (in a swap that sent Dwight McNeil to Crystal Palace) add fresh legs, but the fan base is obsessed with a right-back search and transfixed by the futures of Iliman Ndiaye and Jack Grealish.
Ndiaye dazzled at the World Cup with a cameo against Iraq; Grealish had been superb for Everton before injury cut him down. With James Garner, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and England No. 1 Jordan Pickford as pillars, the expectation is clear: settled in their new home on the Mersey, Evertonians want progress, not platitudes. Rogers’ top five: Man City, Arsenal, Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea.
Across Stanley Park, Liverpool are trying to rediscover themselves. Historian Christine Kinealy skipped the World Cup in person as a protest against FIFA corruption, choosing instead a Liverpool–Wrexham friendly at Yankee Stadium and late-night TV marathons. Spain’s triumph, with new Liverpool signing Víctor Muñoz in their ranks, offered a bright thread in a tangled summer.
Back at Anfield, the Arne Slot era has ended with a whimper. Big-money buys never quite clicked, and when games spiralled, Slot had few solutions. New manager Andoni Iraola is already nudging the team back toward a more direct, high-press style – turnovers forced high, zonal counter-pressing, echoes of Klopp with tweaks of his own. Pre-season has shown promise and flaws in equal measure.
The squad churn has been brutal. Jeremy Jacquet, Víctor Muñoz and Ronald Araújo have arrived, but Mo Salah and Andy Robertson – two players who embodied the club’s modern identity – have gone. Jeff Bezos’s involvement as an owner is viewed by Kinealy as “disappointing and unwelcome.” Yet she still sees reasons to believe in a bumpy but upward season and pins Liverpool to finish third.
Jesuit priest Michael O’Sullivan, another Liverpool voice, is less bullish. He notes injuries to Ekiteke, Bradley and Leoni, a squad in transition and a manager, Ariola, who needs time and reinforcements. He expects Spurs to rise, questions whether United can juggle the league and Champions League, and wonders aloud when the Man City investigation will finally reach a conclusion. His five: Man City, Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Tottenham.
Retired UPS worker Stephen Boland is blunt. Slot “won with Klopp’s team” and then veered into a style that “really didn’t work.” Injuries, a lost-looking Florian Wirtz and a fading Salah turned last season into a slog. The upside? Many Liverpool players avoided a draining World Cup. He expects a tight race and goes with: 1. Arsenal 2. Liverpool 3. Man City 4. Man United 5. Chelsea.
Spurs survive a horror film, Villa trust in Emery
Tottenham’s 2025-26 campaign, as Dom Stingas Paczko puts it, was “the football equivalent of a horror film.” Thomas Frank’s cautious approach backfired, the club slid towards relegation danger, and by the time he was sacked, Spurs were in serious trouble. The brief Igor Tudor interlude barely warrants a mention in his eyes. The saviour was Roberto De Zerbi.
De Zerbi arrived, lifted the mood, and dragged Spurs to safety. Paczko is convinced: without him, he’d be writing about trips to Preston North End and Lincoln City. The board, bruised by the post-Daniel Levy chaos, have overhauled the wage structure and sharpened their transfer work. Losing Cristian Romero and Djed Spence in previous years might have triggered meltdown; this time, the recruitment has softened the blow. Spurs still need “two or three attack-minded signings” to truly chase top four, but, for once, there’s a coherent plan and genuine belief. His table: 1. Arsenal 2. Chelsea 3. Manchester City 4. Aston Villa 5. Tottenham (or Manchester United if Spurs don’t add those extra signings).
At Villa Park, Dave Hannigan writes in the afterglow of a Super Cup win over PSG and a breakout display from 17-year-old striker Brian Madjo. The hype machine is whirring, but Hannigan trusts the cool head of Unai Emery. Departures have hurt – Morgan Rogers to Chelsea, Youri Tielemans to Manchester United, and possibly Ezri Konsa before the window shuts – yet Emery has repeatedly proved he can make his sides more than the sum of their parts.
Viktor Lindelof’s reinvention as a reliable starter, sometimes even in midfield, is the prime example. There’s a note of anxiety about Alejandro Garnacho’s arrival, but faith in Emery remains strong. Keep Boubacar Kamara fit, let John McGinn’s low centre of gravity continue to shield everything in sight, and unleash an Ollie Watkins still smarting from just 56 World Cup minutes, and Villa should again be in the Champions League conversation. Hannigan’s list: 1. Chelsea 2. Manchester City 3. Liverpool 4. Aston Villa 5. Manchester United.
Arsenal’s champions, United’s believers and Chelsea’s redemption bid
From North London, Arsenal fan Scott Silver is done with caution. He’s calling another title. Arsenal “got the recipe correct” last year and he sees no reason it can’t be repeated. Gabriel Martinelli may be heading out for £38 million, but Bukayo Saka is fit, Declan Rice is one of Europe’s elite midfielders and the supporting cast of Eberechi Eze, Kai Havertz and Leandro Trossard gives Mikel Arteta an embarrassment of options. Silver’s top five: Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea.
Manchester United, meanwhile, are riding a wave of renewed faith in Michael Carrick. Joe Behan credits Carrick with transforming a drifting side into a third-place finisher playing, in his view, the best football Old Trafford has seen since Sir Alex Ferguson. Kobbie Mainoo and Benjamin Sesko thrived once restored to the XI, and the squad “played out of their skins.” Behan sees a title challenge if Carrick stays the course and tips a top five of: Arsenal, Manchester United, Manchester City, Aston Villa, Liverpool.
Ray O’Hanlon, also a United man, charts the journey from “frustration to expectation.” From mid-table to top four is progress in any language, but United’s standards are higher. Pre-season brought three wins, a draw and a loss, including a penalty shoot-out victory over Leeds in front of 82,000 at Croke Park and a 4-2 defeat to AC Milan, now coached by former United boss Ruben Amorim. Carrick wants more signings, possibly a marquee name to join Andrey Santos and the other summer arrivals, and he’ll lean again on an academy that always threatens to produce another star. The goals? The league, a deep European run, and, always, finishing ahead of “noisy neighbours” City. O’Hanlon’s order: 1. Arsenal 2. Manchester United 3. Liverpool 4. Aston Villa 5. Everton.
Niall O’Leary goes even further. He calls United champions. His logic is simple: Arsenal are unlikely, in his view, to retain; almost every other contender has changed manager and will need time; United have stability with Carrick, who arrived in January. He even predicts a club symmetry: a 14th Premier League title, led by new No. 14 Marcus Rashford as player of the season. His five: Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea.
Anthony C. Murphy takes a more cautious line. He dissects United’s World Cup contingent – Bruno Fernandes overshadowed by Cristiano Ronaldo, a largely anonymous Uruguay, a misfiring Brazil, Amad Diallo’s bright goals for Ivory Coast – and then turns back to Old Trafford. Casemiro has gone, Youri Tielemans and youngsters Santos and Orozco have arrived. He wants to see Tielemans and Mainoo together for stability, and he remains unconvinced by goalkeeper Lemmens, who veers between brilliant and woeful. United, he thinks, were “lucky” to finish third last year as others faded. His expectation: top five in the league, early exit in Europe, maybe an FA Cup. The top three? Arsenal, City and Liverpool – unless Rodri’s exit really does cause City to stumble, a concern that has now become reality with his move to Barcelona.
Chelsea, stung by a 10th-place finish, are trying to reset. Paul Finnegan admits his title prediction last year looks foolish in hindsight, but he points to the destabilising effect of Enzo Maresca’s mid-season departure to Manchester City. Cole Palmer’s drop-off, injuries and a brutal miss against Leeds at Stamford Bridge summed up a campaign gone wrong. This time, Finnegan reins in the bravado slightly, placing Chelsea second.
His optimism is rooted in talent, the arrivals of experienced heads Jordan Henderson and Danny Welbeck, and the absence of European football, which should allow a tight focus on domestic competitions. Crucially, Xabi Alonso is now “the manager,” not just a coach, and Finnegan wants non-football people at the club to stop meddling. He’s happy Arsenal finally got their title – “so I can stop feeling bad for them” – but expects them to repeat and push deep in the Champions League. His five: 1. Arsenal 2. Chelsea 3. Liverpool 4. Man Utd 5. Spurs.
Newcastle’s reset and a league in flux
On Tyneside, John Spinks surveys a Newcastle side stripped of key assets while the world watched the World Cup. Anthony Gordon, Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimarães have all gone, to Barcelona, Spurs and Arsenal respectively. Then, three weeks before opening night against Liverpool, Eddie Howe walks away. In comes German coach Matthias Jaissle, hand-picked by the Saudi ownership.
The defence remains the spine: Tino Livramento, Lewis Hall, Dan Burn, Lewis Miley and Malick Thiaw are now hardened Premier League operators. Around them, a wave of youth: 20-year-old, 6ft 7in goalkeeper Ivan Jaouen from Reims, midfielders Bamba from Monaco and Steur from Ajax, and the emerging Park Seung. It’s a hybrid squad, raw but intriguing. Spinks likens it to an exotic recipe and wonders if a German chef can make it sing.
The mood around the club is coloured by grief. Kevin Keegan’s death hit Newcastle hard, sparking a moving outpouring of scarves, shirts and flowers. A further tribute is planned for that Liverpool opener at St James’ Park. It feels, Spinks writes, like the end of yet another era. His predictions: 1. Man City 2. Man Utd 3. Arsenal 4. Villa 5. Sunderland – the last “for divilment,” a mischievous nod to the old rivalry.
Across all these voices, one thread runs through: this is a Premier League on the brink of a reset. Multiple giants with new managers. A champion in Arsenal trying to prove it wasn’t a one-off. A wounded City entering life after Rodri and Guardiola. Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs and United all believing, in their own ways, that the window is open.
The odds say one thing. The fans, scattered from Leeds to Florida, from Burton-on-Trent to New York, say another.
Soon enough, the only verdict that counts will be written on the table.
