Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle: Premier League Showdown on May 10, 2026

The City Ground stages a tense late-season Premier League meeting on 10 May 2026 as Nottingham Forest host Newcastle in Round 36 of the 2025 campaign. Forest come into the weekend 16th on 42 points, Newcastle sit 13th on 45, and while neither side is chasing Europe, both are still trying to lock in safety and avoid being dragged into any late drama near the bottom.

With only three games left, the table context matters. In the league, Forest’s goal difference stands at -2 (44 scored, 46 conceded), Newcastle’s is identical at -2 (49 for, 51 against). This is less a classic top-vs-bottom clash and more a meeting of two flawed mid‑table sides whose seasons could still swing in either direction over the final fortnight.

Form and momentum

Across all phases, Forest’s underlying form line for the season reads as a long, streaky sequence, but the most recent league snapshot is much brighter: in the league they are unbeaten in five (form string “WWWDW”), taking 10 points from a possible 12 in their last four. That surge has pulled them clear of the immediate relegation places and turned this fixture into a chance to all but finish the job.

At home, though, the picture is more nuanced. Forest have won only 4 of 17 league matches at the City Ground, drawing 6 and losing 7, with a modest 18 goals scored and 21 conceded. They have kept 4 home clean sheets but failed to score in 9 of those 17 games. That inconsistency in front of their own fans is the major tactical and psychological hurdle they must clear here.

Newcastle’s season has been the mirror opposite: more explosive peaks, but deeper troughs. In the league their form line reads “WLLLL” – one win followed by four straight defeats – a stark collapse after what had been a relatively solid campaign. Across all phases, their longer form string also shows repeated clusters of losses. The away record underlines the fragility: 4 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats from 17 away games, with only 16 goals scored (0.9 per game) and 22 conceded.

Newcastle do travel with a useful defensive note: 5 away clean sheets and only 7 away games without scoring. But the recent run of four consecutive league defeats suggests confidence is brittle.

Tactical outlook: Forest

Across all phases, Forest have been heavily wedded to a 4-2-3-1, using it in 29 of their 35 league fixtures. That shape will almost certainly be the base again, especially with personnel issues limiting flexibility.

In possession, Forest average 1.3 goals per game in the league, with a slightly higher output away (1.4) than at home (1.1). At the City Ground they often lean on compactness and transitions rather than expansive attacking. The “failedToScore” figure of 9 home blanks in 17 games is a warning sign: they must find ways to give their No.10 room to operate between the lines.

That No.10, Morgan Gibbs-White, is the clear attacking reference point. Across all phases he has 13 league goals and 4 assists from midfield, with 54 shots (28 on target) and 46 key passes. He is Forest’s main creative and scoring outlet, combining volume shooting with high involvement in build-up (1,139 passes at 81% accuracy). His duel numbers (305 contested, 122 won) and dribble attempts (52, with 25 successful) underline how often Forest funnel play through him to break pressure.

Given Newcastle’s preference for a 4-3-3, Forest’s double pivot in the 4-2-3-1 will be crucial to protect the back four and to prevent Bruno Guimarães from dictating. Forest’s season-long goals-against rate (1.3 per game both home and away) is respectable rather than outstanding, but 9 total clean sheets show that when the block is compact and disciplined, they can frustrate opponents.

Discipline is another factor: Forest’s yellow-card profile is heavily concentrated between 46 and 75 minutes, a period where they have picked up 26 of their bookings across all phases. Managing that aggression in the second half, especially if they are leading, will be important.

In terms of penalties, Forest have scored all 3 they have been awarded this season across all phases (3 scored, 0 missed), with Gibbs-White himself converting 1 from 1. That gives them a reliable set-piece edge if the game becomes scrappy.

Tactical outlook: Newcastle

Newcastle have been far more settled structurally: across all phases they have lined up in a 4-3-3 in 27 of 35 league matches. That system underpins their identity – a midfield three with one deeper controller and two more advanced options, wide forwards stretching the pitch, and full-backs asked to support high up.

Their attacking numbers are decent in the league: 49 goals in 35 games (1.4 per match), but there is a stark home/away split. At St. James’ Park they score 1.8 per game (33 in 18), away from home that drops to 0.9 (16 in 17). The away attack can be blunted when opponents sit in and deny space for wide runners.

Bruno Guimarães is the heartbeat. Across all phases he has 9 league goals and 5 assists from midfield, with 29 shots (18 on target) and 43 key passes. His 1,266 passes at 86% accuracy show how much of Newcastle’s progression runs through him, and his defensive numbers – 55 tackles, 13 interceptions, 287 duels (143 won) – underline his two-way influence. Stopping him from receiving cleanly between Forest’s lines will be a central part of the home side’s plan.

Newcastle’s defensive record away (22 conceded, 1.3 per game) is not disastrous, but the team’s overall goals against in the league (51) points to systemic issues, particularly when the press is bypassed. They do, however, have 5 away clean sheets, suggesting that when the structure is intact and they are not chasing games, they can be solid.

Discipline is a concern: 2 red cards between 46 and 60 minutes and another between 61 and 75 across all phases highlight a tendency to lose control in the middle period of matches. In a tight contest, that volatility could be costly.

From the spot, Newcastle have converted 6 penalties from 6 across all phases, with Bruno Guimarães scoring 2 from 2. That gives them a strong penalty threat if they can draw fouls in the box.

Injuries and selection

Forest’s defensive depth is hit: W. Boly, John Victor and N. Savona are all listed as Missing Fixture with knee injuries, while C. Hudson-Odoi is also out injured. O. Aina is Questionable. That combination affects both central defensive rotation and wide options, potentially limiting Forest’s ability to switch to a back three or to change wingers late on.

Newcastle also travel without several key squad members: E. Krafth (knee injury), V. Livramento (thigh injury), L. Miley (broken leg) and F. Schar (ankle injury) are all Missing Fixture. The absence of Schar in particular impacts the first-choice central defensive pairing and ball progression from the back, while Livramento’s injury removes a dynamic full-back option.

Both benches, therefore, may look thinner than usual, increasing the importance of starting line-ups and in-game management.

Head-to-head: recent history

• On 5 October 2025 in the Premier League at St. James’ Park, Newcastle beat Nottingham Forest 2-0.
• On 23 February 2025 in the Premier League at St. James’ Park, Newcastle beat Nottingham Forest 4-3.
• On 10 November 2024 in the Premier League at The City Ground, Newcastle beat Nottingham Forest 3-1.
• On 28 August 2024 in the League Cup 2nd Round at The City Ground, Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle after extra time, with Newcastle winning 4-3 on penalties.
• On 10 February 2024 in the Premier League at The City Ground, Newcastle beat Nottingham Forest 3-2.

Across these five, Newcastle have 4 wins, Forest have 0, with 1 draw in regulation time (League Cup) that Newcastle converted into a shootout victory. Forest’s inability to turn performances into results against this opponent is a psychological subplot.

The verdict

On pure league form, Forest arrive in better shape. They are unbeaten in five in the league and have found a way to grind out results, while Newcastle’s “WLLLL” sequence hints at a side running on fumes at the end of a long season.

Yet the head-to-head record is overwhelmingly in Newcastle’s favour, and their 4-3-3, when functioning, has repeatedly found ways to score against Forest’s back line. The visitors’ away attacking numbers are modest, but Forest’s home scoring issues and defensive absences prevent this from being a straightforward home call.

Tactically, the game may hinge on which playmaker imposes himself: Gibbs-White between the lines for Forest, or Bruno Guimarães orchestrating from midfield for Newcastle. With both teams carrying injuries at the back and both boasting reliable penalty takers, a tight, attritional contest with small margins feels likely.

A narrow, scoreline-level outcome – perhaps a draw or a one-goal victory either way – looks the most logical projection, with the City Ground crowd and Forest’s recent momentum just about balancing Newcastle’s historical edge in this fixture.