Premier League Predictions: Arsenal's Title Race and Relegation Battles

The new season hasn’t even kicked off and one thing is already certain: nobody will remember these predictions in May unless they are hilariously wrong. Which, history tells us, they will be.

Still, tradition demands a title tip, a doomed trio and at least one poor soul labelled a £100m “flop” before he’s even unpacked his washbag.

Title race: Arsenal against the field

The panel, by and large, have seen enough. This is Arsenal’s league to lose.

Sarah Winterburn is emphatic: only “the unhinged” would back anyone else after a summer of stability and the headline arrival of Bruno Guimaraes. She doesn’t just tip Arsenal; she doesn’t see anyone finishing within 10 points.

Matt Stead leans into the Arteta project with a cryptic flourish – “Phase five is upon us” – while Dave Tickner, who backed Arsenal last year with a shrug, does so this time “with my full chest”. For him, this is the moment Arsenal cash in on being the only properly settled side while rivals fumble through year-one rebuilds.

Ian Watson and Jason Soutar echo the same theme: too much uncertainty everywhere else, too many unknowns at Chelsea, City, Liverpool, United and Spurs. Lewis Oldham points to Arsenal’s blend of strong signings and continuity. Michael Lee admits he spent the summer trying to talk himself out of backing them, only for the Community Shield to “humble” him and expose rivals as “shambolic”.

Nestor Watach sees Arsenal as a champion that has shed its neurosis, comparing the landscape to the early years of Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City dominance. Samuel Bannister goes further, drawing parallels with PSG in Europe: a club obsessed with one trophy, finally cracking it, and then learning how to retain it. For him, Guimaraes is exactly the sort of signing that keeps a champion on top.

There is one dissenting voice at the summit. John Nicholson, unimpressed by the idea that this is radical at all, picks Manchester United. His logic is blunt: United were “the best team in the league under Carrick”. For him, “them’s the facts”.

The rest of the Champions League pack: Chelsea everywhere, City nowhere near consensus

If nailing the champions feels straightforward, predicting the rest of the top four is a mug’s game. Everyone agrees on that, and then everyone has a go anyway.

Winterburn goes Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, with United in fifth as a bonus. Stead has “Cobham Current Gen” – Chelsea’s academy-fuelled new model – followed by City and Liverpool. Nicholson backs Chelsea, City and Aston Villa.

Tickner openly mocks the task as “infamously impossible”, then lands on Chelsea, Liverpool and City “with almost zero confidence”. Watson, claiming “not a clue”, reluctantly scribbles down City, Chelsea, Tottenham and admits he’d probably change it within 10 minutes.

Soutar sees Chelsea and City in the top four with Spurs. Oldham’s order is City, Chelsea, Liverpool, with Liverpool just edging United for fourth. Lee also goes Chelsea, City, Liverpool, though he warns Spurs could sneak in. Watach has City, Liverpool, United and then Chelsea in fifth, which he reckons will probably still be enough for the Champions League. He expects a “correction” back towards wage-bill orthodoxy.

Bannister flips the usual script: Liverpool first among the chasers, then City, then Chelsea. He expects Alexander Isak under Andoni Iraola to lift Liverpool, Florian Wirtz to improve, and a Europe-free Chelsea to exploit the clear schedule.

Nobody agrees. Which feels about right.

Relegation: promoted clubs in the crosshairs

At the other end, sympathy is in short supply for the new arrivals.

Ipswich, Coventry and Hull are Winterburn’s picks to go straight back down. Watson lands on exactly the same trio. Bannister also sends all three back to the Championship, though he expects Coventry to give it the best shot and tips Crystal Palace as the existing club most likely to flirt with danger.

Stead sees Hull “gone” and Coventry following, but has Ipswich surviving by “initiating the Leeds Protocol” – signing a load of six-footers – and instead predicts Sunderland will get “xG’d” into trouble.

Nicholson also has Hull down, but throws Newcastle and Palace into his bottom three, both suffering from new-manager collapses. Tickner is more brutal: “the promoted teams” is his entire answer. He doesn’t see a Sunderland or Leeds-style survivor in this crop, just “Burnleys”.

Soutar fears for Fulham – “you have to fear for them, you really do” – and then simply calls Ipswich “rubbish” and Hull “proper rubbish”. Oldham is certain Hull and Ipswich go but thinks Coventry’s momentum under Frank Lampard keeps them up, with Fulham instead dropping into 18th. Michael Lee flips it: he sees Sunderland, Coventry and Hull going down, backing Ipswich’s “tidy signings” and warning Sunderland’s European adventure could derail them after last season’s overachievement.

Watach, like Tickner, goes for all three promoted clubs as victims of a “grim and concerning emerging norm”.

Pleasant surprises: Leeds hype, Palace calm, Newcastle redemption

The idea of a “pleasant surprise” feels almost quaint in the current climate, but the panel indulge it.

For Winterburn, that surprise won’t be pleasant to her as a Huddersfield fan: Leeds United. She thinks they’ve bought well enough to climb into the top eight. Nicholson goes bigger, tipping Leeds for sixth after strong upgrades in goal, at centre-back, in midfield and up front.

Stead sees Bournemouth and Palace both finishing top half. Tickner, after a mini-essay on the death of neutral joy, settles on Palace as the likeliest “they’ll be absolutely fine” club, a Brentford-style story under a better manager than peers like Fulham, Bournemouth or Newcastle.

Watson expects Leeds to surprise, if not necessarily delight. Oldham also rides the Leeds wave, believing they can sneak into the top ten, while Michael Lee opts for Forest to get back into Europe. Watach is bullish: Leeds were excellent in the second half of last season and their summer work under Daniel Farke points towards a realistic push for the Conference League.

Soutar splits his optimism: Chelsea finishing top two would be a “surprise” if not a pleasant one; Coventry finishing 15th would be the nicer story. Bannister looks to Newcastle, convinced they can’t be as underwhelming as last season and intrigued by their young, largely unknown replacements.

Golden Boot: Haaland against boredom

On one front, there is barely a debate. Erling Haaland, again.

Winterburn, Stead, Nicholson, Watson, Soutar, Oldham, Lee, Watach and Bannister all pick the Manchester City striker. Some barely bother to justify it. “Daft question,” says Winterburn. “Erling Haaland will win it.” “Who else?” asks Soutar. “Sometimes a spade is a spade,” adds Lee.

Tickner dresses it up a little, dubbing him “Goalbot 3000” and predicting the usual early-season blitz – something like 12 goals in the first nine games en route to around 30. He notes the betting value lies elsewhere, throwing out Matheus Cunha and Cody Gakpo as speculative each-way shouts.

The only real variation is in the race for second: Winterburn and Oldham both think Alexander Isak will run Haaland closest, Nicholson backs Benjamin Sesko.

New signings: Trafford, Guimaraes and a Leeds overhaul

On impact signings, Leeds and Arsenal dominate the conversation.

Watson believes Bruno Guimaraes will be “great for Arsenal”, but sees James Trafford as transformative for Leeds simply by not being “dicey as f***” in goal. Soutar loves all three of Leeds’ early moves – Trafford, Harry Wilson and Tarik Muharemovic – and takes them collectively as his pick.

Oldham doubles down on Trafford, calling him a “colossal upgrade” who could end the season as England’s No.1. Lee thinks United will regret not paying up for Mateus Fernandes. Watach raves about Muharemovic, who has impressed in pre-season and looks capable of taking Leeds “to another level” as Pascal Struijk’s replacement.

Winterburn, looking further down the table, hails Mamadou Sangare as a massive upgrade on Jordan Henderson at Brentford. She also tips Sandro Tonali to make Tottenham “tick”, dragging them from 17th to a heady seventh. Stead crowns James Trafford “by definition” the biggest impact signing, while also highlighting Jeremy Jacquet as a huge upgrade on whatever Ibrahima Konate has become.

Nicholson thinks Morgan Rogers is exactly the player Chelsea need right now. Tickner, fresh from watching the Community Shield, plumps for Christos Tzolis at Arsenal. Bannister also likes Trafford for Leeds, even if he suspects they overpaid.

Flops-in-waiting: big fees, big targets

The “massive flop” label is reserved for big fees and bigger expectations.

Winterburn goes straight for Elliot Anderson at Manchester City, arguing he’s a runner and a worker but not worth that “frankly ridiculous money” at that level. Lee agrees: Anderson isn’t a bad player, but £116m is extortionate and the timing looks wrong.

Tickner’s post-Community Shield “jerking knee” points the same way: Anderson as the most egregious of the summer’s many overspends in midfield. Bannister also fears the price tag will crush him; he doubts Anderson will ever look convincing enough to justify it.

Nicholson follows tradition and picks a big-money Tottenham signing who was good elsewhere: Sandro Tonali. Oldham suspects Andrey Santos at £50m is simply too much. Soutar goes hard on Ronald Araujo – “proper bobbins” – and also flags Victor Munoz as a potential disappointment at Liverpool.

Watson throws Alejandro Garnacho into the mix and admits he “fears for” Morgan Rogers under that fee. The knives are already being sharpened.

Bargains: Wilson, Tielemans and the quiet steals

At the other end of the market, there is rare agreement: free transfers and cut-price deals still matter.

Winterburn calls £35m for Youri Tielemans “a steal” for Manchester United. Bannister also likes that price but wonders if the lack of resale value dents its status as a true bargain, so he adds Christos Tzolis at Arsenal, arguing worse wingers are going – or have gone – for more than £34m.

Leeds again feature heavily. Stead predicts Harry Wilson will keep up the club’s tradition of free transfers hitting double figures for goals, and namechecks Sean Steur as the start of a future nine-figure sale that bankrolls “Newcastle 3.0”. Nicholson simply calls Wilson on a free “great business”. Tickner notes Leeds wanted him for a reasonable fee last year and have now snaffled him for nothing after his best season yet.

Watson lists Wilson and Xaver Schlager as standout freebies. Soutar also picks Wilson at Leeds, while praising Christos Tzolis and Marcos Senesi as honourable mentions.

Oldham spots Christian Norgaard as a clever pick-up for Everton after a superb season at Brentford. Lee flips the script and calls Trafford – Leeds’ record signing – a bargain on the basis of the points he’ll save. Watach points to Hayden Hackney at £16m as “crazily low” in a bonkers market where lesser players have moved for twice that.

PFA Player of the Year: Rice, Guimaraes and the Haaland factor

Last season’s winner, Bruno Fernandes, came from nowhere in the pre-season chatter. That sense of uncertainty lingers.

Winterburn this time goes for Bruno Guimaraes, convinced he can unlock extra creativity for the champions. Oldham uses the simplest logic: the award usually comes from the title winners, so he also lands on Guimaraes after his strong World Cup and expected partnership with Declan Rice.

Rice himself is a popular shout. Tickner believes a deeper, better-stocked Arsenal midfield will allow him to make an even bigger impact than last year, when he finished the World Cup as “football’s weariest human”. Watson also picks Rice, on the assumption he’s finally had a holiday. Watach thinks Arsenal may again lack a single outstanding star but sees Rice as the likeliest headline-grabber.

Stead sticks with Bukayo Saka, “World Cup hat-trick scorer”. Nicholson, staying loyal to his City-centric view, tips Elliot Anderson for the main award and Brian Madjo for Young Player. Lee and Soutar both go for David Raya.

Bannister, consistent to the end, simply doubles up: if Haaland scores the bucketload required for the Golden Boot, he expects the PFA award to follow.

Managers on the brink: Fulham, Hull and Sunderland in the danger zone

If there is one prediction guaranteed to age quickly, it’s the first managerial casualty.

Winterburn and Watson both fear for Alvaro Arbeloa at Fulham. It “just doesn’t feel quite right,” says Winterburn. Watson worries about the club’s direction and suggests Arbeloa can thank him when he’s unveiling his Fulham statue.

Soutar is blunt: “The bloke from Hull. He is doomed.” Nicholson and Lee both agree on Sergej Jakirovic at Hull. Watach says he has the expendable vibe of a bit-part horror-movie character and doubts Hull’s owner is the patient type. Lee is already looking forward to the owner becoming a “Main Character” and stirring Greece-Turkey drama with Evangelos Marinakis.

Tickner plays the percentages with Oliver Glasner at Nottingham Forest, arguing Marinakis’ trigger finger is simply too quick to ignore. Stead throws David Moyes into the mix after a chaotic summer elsewhere.

Watson floats a few more: Matthias Jaissle at Newcastle, who may benefit from low expectations, and a “Diet Pep” figure at City who could be under early pressure. Bannister, meanwhile, circles Regis Le Bris at Sunderland as a classic second-season-syndrome victim after almost doing too well last year.

Europe’s crown: Arsenal’s arc, Barcelona’s Rodri and PSG’s machine

On the continent, the panel split three ways.

Winterburn, Michael Lee and Watach all land on Barcelona, explicitly linking their confidence to the signing of Rodri. For them, he is the missing piece for total control, echoing Spain’s World Cup dominance. Lee adds the caveat that Barça still need a proper centre-back alongside Pau Cubarsi; without that, he swings back towards PSG.

Watson goes for Real Madrid. Nicholson, more romantically, says PSG will be hard to beat but admits it would be “great” if it were Como. Tickner and Soutar both lean into Arsenal’s Champions League trajectory: quarter-final in 2024, semi in 2025, final defeat in 2026. There is, they argue, only one way left for this story to go.

Oldham wants it to be Jose Mourinho’s Real Madrid but thinks PSG’s quality will prevail. Bannister also backs PSG to make it three in a row, convinced they’ve finally worked out how to manage themselves for the big European nights.

And what are we actually looking forward to?

Strip away the spreadsheets and the scatter plots and the writers’ five-word answers reveal the mood of the season.

• “So very many new managers.”
• “New managers; uncertainty, unpredictability, chaos.”
• “No VAR in the Championship.”
• “Neverending moral panic about corners.”

Leeds’ transfer spree. Chelsea’s attempted rebirth. Arsenal’s defence of a crown they’ve chased for years. Haaland’s inevitable numbers. The promoted clubs walking into a storm.

It’s all there, laid out in August bravado. Now the question: who will still stand by any of this when the table starts to bite?