Real Madrid vs Alaves: Match Preview and Predictions

Real Madrid welcome Alaves to Estadio Santiago Bernabéu on 21 April 2026 in La Liga regular round 33, with the hosts chasing the top of the table and the visitors still looking over their shoulder near the relegation zone. The market and the prediction model are fully aligned: this is a match Real Madrid are expected to control, but with a strong likelihood of multiple goals.

Over the last eight league games, Real Madrid’s overall form is clearly superior. Their long-form league sequence (22 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses from 31 matches) is elite, and at home they have been especially dominant: 13 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from 16, scoring 37 and conceding just 13. That equates to 2.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per home match. Their last five overall show 11 goals for and 7 against, with an attacking index of 92% but a more vulnerable defensive index of 42%, indicating that while they regularly outscore opponents, they do allow chances.

Alaves, by contrast, are 17th with 33 points, and their profile is that of a team battling to stay clear of the bottom. Over 31 matches they have 8 wins, 9 draws, 14 losses, with a negative goal difference (35 scored, 46 conceded). Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats from 16, scoring 16 and conceding 28, which is 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded per away game. Their recent five-match snapshot is wild rather than solid: 12 goals scored and 12 conceded, with a 100% attack index but 0% defensive index in the model, pointing towards open, high-variance matches where they both create and give up a lot.

Head-to-Head Data

Head-to-head data in La Liga is heavily tilted towards Real Madrid. On 14 December 2025 in La Liga at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Real Madrid won 2-1 away after leading 1-0 at half-time. On 13 April 2025, again in La Liga at Estadio de Mendizorroza, they won 1-0 away, having also led 1-0 at the break. On 24 September 2024 at the Bernabéu in La Liga, Real Madrid edged a 3-2 home win, after going 2-0 up by half-time. On 14 May 2024 in La Liga at the Bernabéu, they recorded a 5-0 home win, leading 3-0 at the interval. On 21 December 2023 in La Liga at Estadio de Mendizorroza, they won 1-0 away after a goalless first half. Extending further back, they also won 3-0 at the Bernabéu on 19 February 2022 (La Liga), 4-1 away on 14 August 2021 (La Liga), 4-1 away on 23 January 2021 (La Liga), and 2-0 at the Bernabéu on 10 July 2020 (La Liga). The only recent La Liga defeat in this matchup came on 28 November 2020 at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano, when Alaves won 2-1 away. Excluding that, Real Madrid have nine La Liga wins in the last ten meetings, underlining a consistent tactical and quality edge.

Prediction Model

The prediction model assigns 45% to a Real Madrid win, 45% to a draw and 10% to an Alaves victory, yet still labels Real Madrid as the “winner” side with a “win or draw” comment and a 100% head-to-head index. The Poisson-based distribution gives 78% weight to the home side versus 22% to the away side, and the combined comparison score is 66.4% vs 33.8% in favour of Real Madrid. Importantly, both teams have strong attacking indicators in recent matches (Real Madrid 92%, Alaves 100%), and their defensive indicators are moderate to weak, which supports a goals-based angle.

Bookmakers mirror this: home odds cluster between 1.22 and 1.29, with most firms around 1.25–1.27, implying a very high probability for Real Madrid not to lose. Draw prices sit around 5.50–6.00, and away wins are pushed out to between 7.72 and 13.00, confirming Alaves as clear outsiders.

Official Advice

The official advice from the prediction data is a combo: double chance Real Madrid or draw and over 1.5 goals. That aligns well with both the statistical and market picture. Real Madrid’s home scoring rate, Alaves’ porous away defence, and the recent head-to-head goal patterns all support at least two goals in the match, while the double chance leg is heavily protected by Real Madrid’s dominance in this fixture and their overall strength.

Betting verdict: follow the model and back the combo double chance Real Madrid or draw and over 1.5 goals. It captures the expected home superiority and the strong probability of a multi-goal game, while avoiding the shorter straight home-win price.