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Atalanta vs Venezia Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Atalanta welcome Venezia to New Balance Arena in Bergamo on 12 October 2026 in Serie A Regular Season - 6, with both sides under early-season pressure but for very different reasons. The hosts sit mid-table and are looking to stabilise after a mixed start, while the visitors arrive rooted to the bottom and already fighting to get out of trouble.

Atalanta are 11th with 6 points from 5 matches, having won 2 and lost 3, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their home form has been a relative bright spot with 2 wins from 3 at Bergamo. Venezia, by contrast, are 20th with 0 points from 5 games, a goal difference of -9 and the only side yet to claim a point, with 4 goals scored and 13 conceded. This shapes up as a classic clash between a side aiming for the European places and a newly struggling team desperate to halt a losing streak.

From a betting and prediction perspective, interest will focus on whether Atalanta can convert strong historical dominance over Venezia into a routine home win, and whether the visitors can keep the scoreline respectable given their defensive numbers so far.

Atalanta vs Venezia Key Stats

  • Atalanta are 11th with 6 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 3 losses, goal difference -2), while Venezia are 20th with 0 points and a -9 goal difference after 5 defeats.
  • Across the last five meetings in all competitions, Atalanta have never lost to Venezia, including a 4-0 home win on 30 November 2021 in Serie A and a 2-0 Coppa Italia home win on 12 January 2022.
  • In 2026 Serie A statistics, Atalanta have kept 1 clean sheet in 5 games, while Venezia have yet to record a clean sheet and are conceding an average of 2.6 goals per match.

Atalanta vs Venezia — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 11 vs 20
  • Points: 6 vs 0
  • Goals For: 5 vs 4
  • Goals Against: 7 vs 13
  • Clean Sheets: Atalanta 1 (from 5 league matches), Venezia 0 (from 5 league matches)

After 5 Serie A fixtures in 2026, Atalanta’s profile is that of a mid-table side trending upwards. They have won 2 of 3 at home, scoring 4 and conceding 3, and their overall goal difference of -2 is largely the result of away defeats. The form line “LLLWW” in the standings indicates that their most recent matches have been victories, suggesting momentum is improving after a poor start.

Venezia’s situation is far more alarming. They have lost all 5 league games (“LLLLL”), scoring just 4 and conceding 13. At home they have shipped 8 goals in 3 matches; away they have conceded 5 in 2. Their average of 0.8 goals scored versus 2.6 conceded per match underlines a side struggling at both ends of the pitch. With no clean sheets and three games without scoring, this trip to Bergamo is a daunting assignment.

Atalanta vs Venezia Key Matchups

G. Gaetano vs G. Busio

With no top scorers data provided, creativity and midfield control become key. For Atalanta, Gianluca Gaetano stands out from disciplinary stats: 4 appearances, 3 starts and 288 minutes, with 1 assist and strong passing numbers (162 passes at 90% accuracy) plus 6 tackles and 6 interceptions. Despite having received 1 red card, his profile is that of a technically secure midfielder who can progress play and contribute defensively.

For Venezia, Gianluca Busio is their standout creator. In 4 appearances (all starts) and 314 minutes, he has delivered 2 assists, taken 3 shots, and completed 208 passes with an excellent 92% accuracy, alongside 5 key passes and 10 tackles. His rating of 7.15 underlines his importance. The duel between Gaetano’s control and Busio’s distribution could dictate which midfield gains the upper hand; if Busio is contained, Venezia’s already modest attacking output could suffer further.

J. Schingtienne vs Kike Pérez

At the back for Venezia, Joël Schingtienne has been heavily involved: 5 full matches (450 minutes), 273 passes at 87% accuracy, 11 tackles, 3 interceptions and 3 yellow cards. As a central defender, he will be central to trying to stem Atalanta’s pressure, but his card record suggests a risk of disciplinary issues if frequently exposed.

Further forward, Kike Pérez offers Venezia ball progression from midfield. In 5 appearances (5 starts, 420 minutes), he has made 278 passes at 83% accuracy with 11 key passes, 12 tackles and 2 yellow cards. His ability to link defence and attack will be crucial in relieving pressure. If Atalanta can press Pérez effectively, they may pin Venezia back and force Schingtienne and the back line into mistakes in their own third.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent meetings between Atalanta and Venezia have been one-sided, with the Bergamo side consistently on top both home and away. Venezia have struggled to contain Atalanta’s attack and to find the net themselves.

  • 1 March 2025: Atalanta 0-0 Venezia (Serie A)
  • 20 October 2024: Venezia 0-2 Atalanta (Serie A)
  • 23 April 2022: Venezia 1-3 Atalanta (Serie A)
  • 12 January 2022: Atalanta 2-0 Venezia (Coppa Italia)
  • 30 November 2021: Atalanta 4-0 Venezia (Serie A)

Atalanta vs Venezia Prediction

All indicators point towards Atalanta holding a clear edge. The prediction model gives the hosts a 45% chance of victory, with another 45% allocated to the draw and just 10% to a Venezia win. That aligns with the standings context: Atalanta have won 2 of their last 2 league games after a poor opening run, while Venezia have lost all 5 and are conceding heavily.

Atalanta’s home scoring profile is modest (1.3 goals per home game) but consistent, and they have failed to score only once in 5 matches. Venezia’s defence, conceding 2.6 goals per match and allowing goals in every fixture, looks vulnerable against a side that has historically dominated this matchup. However, with the prediction model’s double-chance advice (“Atalanta or draw”) and a relatively high draw probability, a tight but controlled home win feels more realistic than a rout.

Predicted Score: Atalanta 2-0 Venezia

Atalanta Recent Form

Atalanta’s recent Serie A form is mixed but improving. Their sequence “LLLWW” in the standings reflects three early defeats followed by back-to-back wins, suggesting that tactical adjustments and squad cohesion are beginning to take effect. Over 5 matches they average 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded, but at home they have been more solid with 2 wins from 3 and only 3 goals allowed.

Venezia Recent Form

Venezia’s recent form is starkly negative. The standings show five straight defeats (“LLLLL”), with 4 goals scored and 13 conceded. They have failed to score in 3 of those 5 games and have yet to take a point either home or away. Their defensive issues are persistent both in the first and second halves, and their attacking output has not been sufficient to compensate.

Atalanta Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Carnesecchi or M. Sportiello; Defenders: S. Kolašinac, O. Kossounou, G. Scalvini, D. Zappacosta; Midfielders: Éderson, F. Kessié, G. Gaetano, E. Elmas, C. De Ketelaere; Forwards: G. Scamacca, G. Raspadori, N. Krstović, J. Rowe.

Atalanta have frequently used a 4-3-3 shape in 2026 (5 matches with that formation in the statistics), which suits their mix of dynamic midfielders and versatile forwards. The presence of creators like De Ketelaere and Gaetano, plus physical forwards such as Scamacca and Krstović, gives them multiple ways to attack Venezia’s fragile back line. The main concern is managing without a couple of injured squad members, but overall depth remains strong.

Venezia Possible Starting Lineup

GK: L. Montipò or F. Stanković; Defenders: A. Bella-Kotchap, Thierry Correia, R. Haps, Juan Jesus, J. Schingtienne; Midfielders: G. Busio, Kike Pérez, S. Sohm, A. Duncan, A. Hainaut; Forwards: A. Adams, L. Lauberbach, A. Rrahmani, J. Yeboah.

Venezia have lined up in a 3-5-2 across all 5 league games, aiming to crowd midfield and protect a back three. However, with no clean sheets and 13 goals conceded, the system has not yet delivered defensive solidity. The creative burden falls heavily on Busio and Kike Pérez, while Adams, Lauberbach and Rrahmani must convert the limited chances they receive. Multiple injuries in midfield and defence further limit their options.

Atalanta Team News

Atalanta have a couple of confirmed absentees for this fixture. K. Sulemana is ruled out with a jumpers knee issue, and defender I. Hien misses out due to a muscle bruise. While both are useful squad options, Gian Piero Gasperini (or the current coach) still has ample depth in defence and attack to maintain their preferred aggressive style.

Venezia Team News

Venezia are harder hit by injuries. Midfielder B. Franjić (wound), forward A. Adorante (inguinal hernia), midfielder T. Bašić (foot injury) and defender M. Šverko (hip injury) are all listed as missing for this match. That reduces rotation options in central areas and may force the coach to lean more heavily on Busio, Kike Pérez and Sohm in midfield, and on Adams and Lauberbach in attack.

Injuries & Suspensions

Atalanta:

  • K. Sulemana — Jumpers Knee
  • I. Hien — Muscle Bruise

Venezia:

  • B. Franjić — Wound
  • A. Adorante — Inguinal Hernia
  • T. Bašić — Foot Injury
  • M. Šverko — Hip Injury

Betting Tips: Atalanta vs Venezia

Exactly 3 distinct markets, based on current form, H2H and available odds.

  • Result Tip: Back Atalanta to win. The prediction model gives Atalanta a 45% win probability versus 10% for Venezia, with a strong H2H record and better recent form. Home odds for Atalanta range from 1.50 to 1.66 across bookmakers, implying an approximate probability between 60.2% (1 ÷ 1.66 × 100) and 66.7% (1 ÷ 1.50 × 100). That confirms Atalanta as clear market favourites.
  • Goals Tip: Atalanta to win to nil or under 3.5 goals is a logical angle. Venezia average only 0.8 goals scored per match and have failed to score in 3 of 5 games, while Atalanta’s attack is steady rather than explosive (1.0 goal per game). With several past H2H meetings ending in comfortable but not extreme scorelines (2-0, 3-1, 2-0), a controlled home win without a goal glut is likely. Use the closest under/“win to nil” odds from your preferred bookmaker.
  • Value Tip: Consider a card-related angle involving J. Schingtienne or Kike Pérez for Venezia. Schingtienne has already collected 3 yellow cards in 5 matches, and Pérez has 2 yellows in 5, in a team that defends for long spells and commits fouls across the midfield. In a match where Venezia are likely to be under pressure, prices on either player to be booked could offer value. Check the player card markets; typical odds for frequent card recipients can be attractive compared to their underlying risk profile.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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