Everton W vs Leicester City WFC: FA WSL Match Preview
Everton W host Leicester City WFC at Goodison Park in FA WSL Regular Season - 22, with the home side looking to consolidate mid-table safety and the visitors trying to escape the relegation playoff position. Standings underline a clear gap: Everton are 8th on 20 points (6-2-13, goal difference -13, goals 24-37), while Leicester sit 12th on 9 points (2-3-16, goal difference -40, goals 11-51) and are flagged for relegation playoffs.
Form and underlying numbers strongly favour Everton, even if their overall campaign has been inconsistent. From the standings, Everton’s overall record is modest, but the prediction model’s last-five snapshot is more encouraging: 40% form, with 7 goals scored (1.4 per game) and 10 conceded (2 per game). The comparison module rates Everton at 100% on recent form versus 0% for Leicester, with an attacking index of 70% vs 30% and defensive index 64% vs 36%.
Everton’s season-long league statistics show 24 goals for across 20 recorded fixtures in the prediction dataset, averaging 1.2 per match, with a relatively even spread of scoring minutes and a notable early and late threat (22.22% of goals between 0-15 minutes and the same share between 61-90). Defensively, they concede 1.8 per game in that dataset, with vulnerability particularly in the opening and immediately after half-time (21.21% of goals conceded in both the 0-15 and 46-60 windows). Their home league record in the standings is poor (2-0-8, goals 10-22), but Leicester’s away profile is even worse.
Leicester’s numbers are those of a side in deep trouble. In the standings they have only 11 goals for and 51 against in 21 matches, and their form line is “LLLLL”, a fully documented losing streak (0-0-5). The prediction dataset reinforces this: just 0.5 goals scored per match and 2.4 conceded, with away goals for at 0.3 per game and away goals against at 3.1. In their last five, they have scored 3 and conceded 18 (0.6 for, 3.6 against), with an attacking index of 21% and a defensive index of 0%, underlining how porous they have become. They also fail to score frequently (10 blanks in 21 league fixtures).
Head-to-Head Data
Head-to-head data, separated correctly by competition, shows a nuanced picture. In FA WSL play on 2025-10-05 at King Power Stadium, Leicester City WFC drew 1-1 at home to Everton W. Earlier in 2025, on 2025-02-02 at Walton Hall Park in FA WSL, Everton W won 4-1 at home. On 2024-10-20, again in FA WSL at King Power Stadium, Leicester City WFC beat Everton W 1-0. On 2024-01-28 in FA WSL at Walton Hall Park, Leicester City WFC won 1-0 away. In cup action, on 2024-01-24 in the WSL Cup at Pirelli Stadium, Leicester City WFC defeated Everton W 5-1. Further back in the league, on 2023-10-08 at King Power Stadium, Leicester City WFC beat Everton W 1-0; on 2023-03-12 at King Power Stadium they played out a 0-0 draw; on 2022-09-29 at Walton Hall Park Everton W won 1-0; on 2022-03-12 at Walton Hall Park Everton W won 3-2; and on 2021-11-21 at Pirelli Stadium Everton W won 1-0. These individual results show that while Leicester have enjoyed some strong days against Everton, especially at home and in the cup, the current context is very different, with Leicester now arriving as the league’s weakest away side.
Prediction Model
The official prediction model is clear: it assigns 45% probability to an Everton win, 45% to a draw, and only 10% to a Leicester victory. The Poisson-based comparison gives Everton 81% vs 19%, and the overall comparison index is 56.8% in favour of Everton. The goals projection flags low scoring on both sides, with expected home goals under 2.5 and away goals under 1.5.
Betting-wise, the core angle is to follow the model’s explicit advice: “Double chance: Everton W or draw.” With Leicester win probability at just 10% and their away attack at 0.3 goals per game, opposing an away victory is strongly supported by data. Given Everton’s poor home record but clear superiority in form, attack and defence, the safest and most value-aligned position is to back Everton on the double chance market (Everton or draw), rather than chasing a straight home win or higher goal lines. A cautious goals stance is also justified: expect a relatively tight match where Everton’s greater quality and Leicester’s frailty tilt the balance towards a home-favoured result without requiring a high-scoring game.
