Gameweek 38: Final Day FPL Strategies
When the final whistle blows on Sunday, it will not just end another Premier League season. It will close the book on a chaotic, unpredictable FPL campaign where rotation fear has become a weekly ritual.
This week, that fear is the whole story.
Rotation Roulette: Who Can You Trust?
The starting point is simple: who still has something real on the line?
According to the Fusion Sim projections, the only genuine jeopardy sits around the European spots (6th–8th) and the relegation scrap involving West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. That’s it. Title, top four, most of the big prizes are settled.
That context matters. It points to a core group of clubs unlikely to rip up their line-ups: Liverpool, Bournemouth, Brighton and Hove Albion, Chelsea, Sunderland, Brentford, West Ham and Spurs. Managers there have little reason to experiment wildly, and your existing assets from those sides should be safe enough.
Does that automatically make them the best transfer targets? Not always. When both teams are effectively “on the beach”, games can open up, defensive structure loosens, and FPL points can flow from unexpected places. Predictability of minutes does not always equal explosiveness of returns.
Still, if you own players from those teams, you back them to start. Then you tackle the real minefield: Manchester City and Arsenal.
Arsenal: Risky Ground for Attackers
Mikel Arteta revealed very little in his press conference, but the training ground offered more clues. David Raya (£6.2m), Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) and William Saliba (£6.3m) all worked individually, away from the main group on Thursday.
They could all start on Sunday. That remains firmly on the table. Yet of the three, Saka and Saliba still carry a genuine risk of rest.
There is also the Noni Madueke (£6.8m) angle. He did not get on the pitch against Burnley, which strengthens the case for him to start against Crystal Palace while Saka is protected, perhaps for a late cameo rather than a full outing.
Raya’s situation is different. The Golden Glove is already his, but he still chases the record for most clean sheets by an Arsenal goalkeeper in a single season. That kind of personal milestone can be enough to keep a goalkeeper in the side.
Up front, the picture blurs again. Viktor Gyokeres (£9.1m) may not be guaranteed to start. Gabriel Jesus (£6.4m) or even Kai Havertz (£7.3m) could lead the line. However the pieces fall, the sense is that this will not be a high-scoring afternoon for the Gunners.
For FPL managers, that points in one direction: if you have free transfers, this is a week to consider moving your Arsenal attackers on rather than buying in. If a choice has to be made, Saka would be a sell before Gyokeres.
Manchester City: One Last Show at the Etihad?
Over at Manchester City, the narrative is heavy. It is likely to be Pep Guardiola’s final game in charge. At the time of writing, he has not confirmed it, but the expectation is that he will address it in his press conference. The squad will know. The crowd will know. The emotional charge will be huge.
City also open their new stand at the Etihad, adding 7,000 extra fans. It has the feel of a farewell party.
Where does that leave Erling Haaland (£14.7m)? He has a World Cup to look forward to in the summer, so a rest is not impossible, but the smarter read is a start with the possibility of an early withdrawal. The occasion is too big, the stakes too symbolic.
Phil Foden (£8.0m) looks well placed to start, which in turn casts doubt on the minutes of Rayan Cherki (£6.6m). Nico O’Reilly (£5.3m) is far harder to read, his role closer to that of Antoine Semenyo (£8.0m): unpredictable, explosive on his day, but not nailed.
The fixture itself? It could catch fire. Aston Villa are still basking in their midweek Europa League triumph, and a slight hangover is not out of the question. City, chasing a statement performance for their manager and their new stand, could run riot.
From an FPL standpoint, the lean is clear: keep Haaland and O’Reilly if you own them, but look to ship out Cherki and Semenyo.
Aston Villa and Manchester United: Clear Calls
Aston Villa are the easy part of the equation. Expect mass rotation. They are obvious sells or at least bench candidates. If you are reading this in Gameweek 38, you likely knew that already.
Manchester United are more straightforward. Bruno Fernandes (£10.4m), Matheus Cunha (£8.1m) and Bryan Mbeumo (£8.3m) are all expected to start. Casemiro (£5.9m) has already been ruled out by Michael Carrick. Beyond that, FPL ownership is thin. There is no hidden landmine here.
Liverpool and the Rest: Reliable Foundations
Liverpool, by contrast, should be close to full strength. Dominik Szoboszlai (£7.1m) and Virgil van Dijk (£6.0m) are set to start. Mohamed Salah (£14.0m) should be in the XI as well, pending any late hint from Arne Slot’s press conference.
Elsewhere, there are not many other highly owned assets causing sleepless nights. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.8m) is one of the few. He should start and remains a steady, if unspectacular, pick.
On the question of hits, the stance is firm: avoid them unless you are reacting to reliable team leaks. Guessing rotation on the final day is a fast route to frustration. Use your bench. Embrace the chaos. Gameweek 38 throws up freak events every year.
The Free Hit Gambit: A Differential XI
For managers chasing 10, 20, even 30 points, the final day offers one last wild swing: the Free Hit.
How do you build a side that can cut through rivals stacked with Arsenal and City assets?
Defence: Target the Fighters
If you are spending a free transfer at the back, the focus narrows to West Ham and Spurs. Both are still fighting, both have defenders with attacking threat.
Pedro Porro (£5.2m) and Konstantinos Mavropanos (£4.5m) stand out. They bring more than clean-sheet potential; they carry real upside in the final third.
John Stones (£5.4m) is another intriguing pick. With this likely to be his last game for Manchester City, he has every chance of starting. Sentiment and selection align.
Midfield: Goals Where the Guard Is Down
Jack Hinshelwood (£5.2m) has quietly risen to the top of the midfield charts for big chances over the last six Gameweeks. With Casemiro rested, Brighton should find space and goals. Hinshelwood feels like a classic final-day pick: under the radar, but in the right zones.
Then there is Salah. One last hurrah for the FPL king? He remains a strong captaincy candidate, though Hinshelwood’s upside makes him a tempting alternative in more aggressive builds.
Burnley’s clash with Wolverhampton Wanderers could turn into a loose, end-of-season shootout. Neither side will want to finish bottom. Zian Flemming (£5.3m) would have been the preferred pick from that fixture, but the forward slots are too valuable, so Jaidon Anthony (£5.0m) gets the nod in midfield instead.
Morgan Gibbs-White (£7.5m) completes the core. Nottingham Forest showed against Manchester United that defending is not exactly their priority right now. On home turf, they should still score a few against a Bournemouth side that ranks in the bottom five for expected goals conceded in away matches.
Forwards: Penalties and Motivation
Up front, the logic is sharp: penalties, 90 minutes, and everything on the line.
Richarlison (£6.4m) and Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m) tick every box. Both are on spot-kicks, both are central to their teams’ hopes of avoiding relegation, and both are near-inevitable starters. In a week defined by uncertainty, that combination is gold.
Alongside them, William Osula (£5.5m) offers pure form. He sits in the top three for expected goals over the last six GameWeeks, and with Marco Silva’s departure from Fulham imminent, the match at Craven Cottage could easily unravel into a goal-heavy farewell.
One Last Roll of the Dice
And so it comes down to this. One deadline. One team sheet leak. One brave or reckless transfer.
For some, it will be about protecting rank. For others, it will be about that final, audacious swing at a mini-league rival stacked with Arsenal and City assets.
Hits or no hits. Salah or Hinshelwood. Haaland captain or a punt on a differential.
When the season ends and the app closes, the question will linger: did you play it safe, or did you trust the chaos of Gameweek 38 one last time?
