Liverpool's Defensive Challenges Face Atlético's Tactics at Anfield
Liverpool’s defensive growing pains meet Atlético’s streetwise edge at Anfield on Wednesday night, in a Champions League tie that feels far more finely balanced than the markets suggest.
Liverpool still searching for defensive balance
Andoni Iraola has brought energy and aggression to Liverpool, but the back line is still learning its new tricks. Four goals conceded in their first two Premier League games, both ending in draws, tell their own story. This is not yet a settled defence.
Injuries have forced compromises. Ronald Araújo has been shunted to right-back with Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni sidelined, and the unit is clearly still taking shape. Even in their 2-0 win at Ipswich, the structure looked more promising than polished.
That instability is exactly the kind of weakness Diego Simeone lives to exploit.
Atlético have history here. They won 3-2 at Anfield in 2019/20 and clawed their way back from 2-0 down on this ground last season. They know how to suffocate the atmosphere, slow the game, and drag Liverpool into a contest on their terms.
The odds, though, don’t quite reflect that. The market gives Atlético a 46.5% implied chance of avoiding defeat, a number that feels short of the evidence. Simeone’s side have never won a league phase game against English opposition, but they don’t need to here. A draw is enough for the “double chance” to land.
Bet 1: Draw or Atlético (Double Chance) @ 23/20 with Sky Bet
Isak sharp, confident, and carrying Liverpool’s goal threat
At the other end, one thing is starting to look clear: Alexander Isak is ready to be the focal point of this Liverpool attack.
Three goals in three Premier League games this season, and the swagger is back. He struck twice in nine frantic minutes at Ipswich last Friday, with Cody Gakpo laying on all three of his goals so far this campaign. The partnership is forming quickly, and it shows.
Compare that to his debut season: four goals in 22 appearances. This version of Isak looks fitter, sharper, and far more decisive. Anfield is beginning to see the player Liverpool thought they were signing.
Atlético’s back line is hardly watertight either. They arrive on Merseyside still stung by a 3-0 defeat at Athletic Bilbao, a performance that exposed gaps and uncertainty in their defensive structure. That should encourage Isak, even if his Champions League record – one goal in 13 appearances – is a clear warning sign.
The price still feels generous. An implied 47.6% chance of Isak scoring, given his current form and Liverpool’s reliance on him, looks on the low side.
Bet 2: Alexander Isak anytime goalscorer @ 11/10 with Sky Bet
Simeone ready to strangle the space
For all Liverpool’s attacking names, chance creation remains their nagging problem.
They sit 19th in the Premier League for big chances created, with just four in three games. Brighton, by contrast, have carved out 15 in the same period. That gulf is stark for a side boasting Isak, Gakpo, Florian Wirtz and more.
This is exactly the kind of flaw Atlético are built to punish. Pablo Barrios and Morten Hjulmand will patrol the zones Wirtz loves to drift into, closing off the half-spaces that fuel Liverpool’s best work. Behind them, Jan Oblak still offers calm, authority and the kind of shot-stopping that can turn a tight game.
Simeone will not be drawn into a shootout. He will happily make this a slow, narrow, attritional contest, with every Liverpool attack funneled into traffic. Atlético have scored seven in their last four league games, and they carry a clear threat, particularly with Julian Alvarez expected to return to the starting XI.
Even so, the rhythm of this tie points towards a cagey night. With the under 2.5 goals line sitting at an implied 42.2%, the price looks inviting for a match that could easily be decided by a single moment or two.
Bet 3: Under 2.5 goals @ 11/8 with Sky Bet
Form, prediction and the key men
Liverpool come into this as a work in progress with a decent platform: five points from three Premier League games, two goals conceded in each of their first two outings, then that steadier 2-0 win at Ipswich. Isak’s brace at Portman Road underlined his growing influence.
Iraola, though, remains without Hugo Ekitike, Bradley and Leoni, while Federico Chiesa and Wataru Endo are not registered for Champions League duty. His options are talented but thin in certain areas.
Atlético arrive bruised by that 3-0 defeat at Bilbao but still sixth in La Liga with seven points from four games. Simeone is set to hand Alvarez his first start of the season, with Cristian Romero also pushing to make his first XI since joining the club. Alexander Sorloth (thigh) and Arnau Ortiz (suspension) are out.
The expectation is for a tight, tactical battle rather than a wild rerun of last season’s 3-2 Liverpool win on Matchday 1.
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Atlético Madrid
Goalscorers prediction: Liverpool – Isak; Atlético Madrid – Álvarez
Probable lineups
- Liverpool expected XI: Alisson; Kerkez, Araújo, Jacquet, van Dijk; Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, Barcola; Wirtz, Gakpo; Isak
- Atlético Madrid expected XI: Oblak; Llorente, Romero, Hancko, Grimaldo; Giuliano Simeone, Barrios, Hjulmand, Lookman; Baena, Álvarez
Anfield will demand a statement from Iraola’s evolving side. Simeone, with Alvarez back in the fold and his team still snarling despite their flaws, will be just as determined to deny them one.
