Liverpool’s Defence Faces Atlético Madrid Challenge at Anfield
Liverpool and Atlético Madrid meet again under the Anfield lights on Wednesday night, a rerun of last season’s breathless Matchday 1 clash that finished 3-2 to the Reds. The stakes feel similar. The mood does not.
Andoni Iraola’s Liverpool are still finding their feet. The numbers say it plainly: four goals conceded in their first two Premier League games, both of them draws, before a much-needed 2-0 win at Ipswich. The structure isn’t settled, the back line even less so.
Ronald Araújo has been shunted to right-back with Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni both sidelined, and the entire defensive unit is clearly in transition. That uncertainty is exactly the kind of scent Diego Simeone’s Atlético tend to follow.
Atlético sense weakness
Atlético arrive on Merseyside nursing bruises from a 3-0 defeat at Athletic Bilbao, but their broader picture is steadier than that scoreline suggests. They sit sixth in La Liga with seven points from their first four matches and, crucially, they know this ground and this fixture.
Simeone’s side won 3-2 at Anfield in 2019/20 and clawed back from 2-0 down here last season. This stadium does not intimidate them. It energises them.
The visiting coach is ready to roll the dice with Julian Álvarez, set for his first start of the season, while Cristian Romero is pushing for his first start since joining the club. Alexander Sørloth is out with a thigh problem and Arnau Ortiz is suspended, but Simeone still travels with enough firepower and experience to test Liverpool’s fragile balance.
The market currently gives Atlético roughly a 46.5% implied chance of avoiding defeat. For a side with this pedigree, against a Liverpool defence still being stitched together, that looks cautious. They have never won a league-phase game against English opposition, but they don’t have to. A draw would be enough to underline the doubts around Iraola’s back line.
Isak sharp at last
Up the other end, one storyline at Anfield is far more encouraging for the home crowd. Alexander Isak finally looks like the striker Liverpool thought they were signing.
The Swedish forward has three goals in his first three Premier League games this season. At Ipswich on Friday night he was ruthless, scoring twice in nine minutes at Portman Road. Cody Gakpo assisted all three of his league goals so far, a partnership that suddenly looks dangerous rather than theoretical.
It is a stark contrast to his debut campaign: four goals in 22 appearances, a year blighted by fitness issues and stop-start rhythm. Now he looks fitter, sharper, more decisive in the box than at any stage of his Liverpool career.
Atlético’s defence is hardly watertight either. That 3-0 defeat in Bilbao exposed a back line still searching for cohesion, and Simeone knows he cannot simply lean on Jan Oblak to bail them out every week. The one nagging caveat around Isak is his Champions League record – just one goal in 13 appearances – but his current form suggests he is better placed than ever to change that.
Creativity drought at Anfield
The bigger concern for Liverpool lies not with the man finishing chances, but with the volume of chances being created.
After three league games, Liverpool sit 19th in the Premier League for big chances created, with only four. Brighton, at the other extreme, have carved out 15 over the same span. For a side boasting Florian Wirtz, Gakpo and Isak, that figure is jarring.
The tactical battle in midfield will be fierce. Pablo Barrios and Morten Hjulmand are expected to lock down the central spaces Wirtz loves to drift into, while Oblak remains a steady, authoritative presence behind them. Simeone will happily drag this game into a slow, narrow contest, squeezing the life out of Liverpool’s combinations between the lines.
Atlético have still scored seven in their last four league games and the likely return of Álvarez to the starting XI adds another edge to their counter-attacking threat. Yet the shape of this contest points towards a controlled, attritional night rather than a repeat of last season’s five-goal shootout.
With Liverpool struggling to create clear openings and Atlético built to frustrate, the under 2.5 goals angle carries weight. The implied probability of around 42.2% feels generous in a matchup where caution, structure and small margins are likely to dominate.
Team news and likely XIs
Iraola remains without Hugo Ekitike, Bradley and Leoni, while Federico Chiesa and Wataru Endo were not registered for Champions League action. That limits his options to rotate or change the dynamic from the bench if the game tightens, as it so often does against Simeone.
Expected Liverpool lineup: Alisson; Kerkez, Araújo, Jacquet, van Dijk; Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, Barcola; Wirtz, Gakpo, Isak.
Expected Atlético Madrid lineup: Oblak; Llorente, Romero, Hancko, Grimaldo; Giuliano Simeone, Barrios, Hjulmand, Lookman; Baena, Álvarez.
Prediction: a tight, tense rerun
The bookmakers lean towards Liverpool, but the pattern of both teams’ early seasons hints at something more restrained. Atlético are well equipped to expose Liverpool’s defensive uncertainty, yet Simeone will not open up just to chase a statement win.
A 1-1 draw feels a realistic scoreline: Isak to continue his domestic form for Liverpool, Álvarez to mark his first start of the season with a goal for Atlético.
The last time these two met here, chaos ruled. This time, with Liverpool’s defence under reconstruction and Simeone smelling vulnerability, the night may be defined less by volume and more by who makes the one mistake that really matters.
