Newcastle host Qarabag in Newcastle in a UEFA Champions League Round of 32 tie on 24 February 2026 (20:00 UTC). In the overall Champions League table, Newcastle sit 12th with 14 points and a +10 goal difference, while Qarabag are 22nd with 10 points and a -8 goal difference. Both sides have earned promotion to the 1/16-finals stage.
Squad Analysis: Newcastle
Newcastle arrive with an impressive European profile: 17 goals scored and only 7 conceded in 8 Champions League games, averaging 2.1 goals for and 0.9 against per match in that competition phase. At home they have been particularly strong, winning 3 of 4 Champions League fixtures with a 9–2 home goal record. Across the broader season stats, they have 23 goals in 9 matches (2.6 per game) and just 8 conceded (0.9 per game), supported by 4 clean sheets.
In attack, Anthony Gordon is the headline figure. He has 10 Champions League goals in 9 appearances, adding 2 assists and hitting 14 of 18 shots on target, underlining a ruthless edge. Harvey Barnes adds depth with 5 goals and 2 assists in 9 games, converting 14 shots on target from 16 attempts. Newcastle have also been perfect from the spot, scoring 5 of 5 penalties (100.00%).
Injuries are a concern, especially in midfield and defence. Bruno Guimaraes (muscle injury), F. Schar (ankle injury), E. Krafth and L. Miley (both knee injuries), and V. Livramento (hamstring) are all listed as missing, while M. Thiaw is suspended for yellow cards. Y. Wissa is also out with a knock. That cluster of absences weakens Newcastle’s spine and defensive rotation, putting more pressure on their attacking stars and on their depth at the back.
Squad Analysis: Qarabag
Qarabag’s Champions League journey has been more volatile. They have 13 goals for and 21 against in 8 matches, averaging 1.6 scored and 2.6 conceded per game in that phase. Their away record is fragile: 1 win and 3 losses from 4 away fixtures, with 4 goals scored and 13 conceded. Season-wide, they have 29 goals in 15 matches (1.9 per game) but have allowed 32 (2.1 per game), reflecting an open, high-risk style.
Creatively, Leandro Andrade is pivotal. From midfield he has 4 goals and 2 assists in 12 Champions League appearances, with 9 key passes and 5 of 6 shots on target. His 169 total passes show how often play flows through him. Qarabag have also been clinical from penalties, converting 3 of 3 (100.00%).
Defensively, however, their record is shaky: 32 goals conceded and only 4 clean sheets in 15 games. Key defensive figures Matheus Silva and Kevin Medina both combine aggression with leadership. Silva has 24 tackles, 11 interceptions and 4 yellow cards in 12 games, while Medina adds 21 tackles, 14 blocks, 18 interceptions and also 4 yellows in 11 games. Injuries further complicate matters: goalkeeper S. Mahammadaliyev is out, and B. Mustafazada is questionable, potentially stretching their defensive depth.
Key Matchups & Tactical Trends
- Gordon’s goal threat vs Qarabag’s leaky defence
Anthony Gordon’s 10 goals in 630 minutes (a goal every 63 minutes) directly tests a Qarabag back line conceding 2.1 goals per game and 13 goals in just 4 away outings. With Newcastle averaging 2.6 goals per match overall and never failing to score this season (0 games failed to score), Gordon’s combination of 14 shots on target and 5 converted penalties is a clear numerical edge against a defence that has managed only 4 clean sheets in 15 games. - Andrade’s creativity vs Newcastle’s defensive structure
Leandro Andrade’s 4 goals, 2 assists and 9 key passes make him Qarabag’s main creative outlet. Yet he faces one of the competition’s tightest defences: Newcastle concede only 0.9 goals per game and have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches. At home, they have allowed just 2 goals in 4 fixtures (0.5 per game). Andrade’s 169 passes and 42 duels (17 won) must translate into penetration against a unit that has never been blown away at home, with their heaviest home defeat just 1–2. - Discipline and physical battle: Newcastle intensity vs Qarabag card risk
Newcastle’s yellow-card profile shows 13 cautions concentrated between minutes 16–90 (6 between 16–30, 2 between 31–45, 2 between 46–60, 1 between 61–75, 2 between 76–90), indicating sustained aggression after the opening phase. Qarabag’s discipline risk is more player-specific: Matheus Silva and Kevin Medina each have 4 yellow cards, combining for 8 bookings in 23 total appearances. With Silva involved in 132 duels (73 won) and Medina in 89 (58 won), their high-contact style could be exposed by Gordon and Barnes, who have drawn 11 and 7 fouls respectively. As the match progresses, Qarabag’s yellow distribution – 7 cards between 61–75 minutes and 4 between 76–90 – suggests potential late-game defensive instability under pressure.
Statistically, Newcastle hold the edge in both attack and defence. They score more (2.6 vs Qarabag’s 1.9 goals per game) and concede far less (0.9 vs 2.1), with stronger home numbers and more clean sheets (4 each, but from fewer games). Qarabag’s attacking threat is real, yet their defensive fragility and disciplinary load give Newcastle the clearer overall profile.
