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Tottenham vs Crystal Palace Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Tottenham welcome Crystal Palace to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in a London derby that already carries weight near the wrong end of the Premier League table. With both sides sitting in the bottom half ahead of this Round 9 clash, points are crucial as they look to steer clear of an early-season relegation scrap.

Tottenham come into the weekend 14th with 9 points from 8 matches and a goal difference of -2. Performances have been inconsistent, but a recent upturn – only one defeat in their last five league outings – suggests they are beginning to stabilise. Crystal Palace, by contrast, are 17th on 7 points with a worrying -10 goal difference, and a defence conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game across their 8 matches.

Stats-based Premier League predictions strongly lean towards a home result here, but Crystal Palace’s recent record at this ground – including a 3-1 win in March 2026 – ensures this is no formality for Tottenham.

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace Key Stats

  • Tottenham are 14th with 9 points from 8 games (2 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 10 in the league.
  • Crystal Palace have taken some big scalps in this fixture recently, winning 3-1 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on 5 March 2026 and 2-0 there on 11 May 2025.
  • Season statistics show Tottenham averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match, while Crystal Palace average 1.1 scored and a high 2.4 conceded.

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 14 vs 17
  • Points: 9 vs 7
  • Goals For: 8 vs 9
  • Goals Against: 10 vs 19
  • Clean Sheets: Tottenham 3, Crystal Palace 1 (season statistics)

The table underlines how tight things are between these two. Tottenham’s 9 points from 8 games reflect a side that has drawn almost as many as they have lost, but their goal difference of -2 is relatively controlled compared to Palace’s -10. Spurs have been modest going forward with just 8 goals, but their defence has been broadly competitive, conceding 10.

Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have a more volatile profile. With 2 wins and 5 defeats from 8, they are only two points behind Spurs but have shipped 19 goals – the equivalent of 2.4 per match. Their attack is only marginally more productive than Tottenham’s (9 goals vs 8), but the defensive gap is stark and a key factor in this matchup.

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace Key Matchups

R. Bentancur vs D. Kamada

Rodrigo Bentancur has been a central figure in Tottenham’s midfield, logging 384 minutes across 6 appearances. While he has yet to register a goal or assist, his contribution lies in ball circulation and defensive work: 255 passes at an 88% accuracy, 15 tackles, 3 blocks and 6 interceptions. His aggressive style is underlined by 9 fouls committed and 1 red card this season.

Daichi Kamada is Crystal Palace’s standout creator so far. In 8 appearances (all starts) and 703 minutes, he has 1 goal and 3 assists, making him Palace’s leading playmaker. He has produced 281 passes with 85% accuracy, 7 key passes, 5 shots (2 on target) and 7 successful dribbles from 10 attempts. He also works hard off the ball with 15 tackles and 2 interceptions, though he has picked up 2 yellow cards.

This duel in midfield could define the rhythm of the game: Bentancur’s task will be to disrupt Kamada’s passing lanes and late runs, while Kamada will look to exploit any space between Tottenham’s lines to feed Palace’s forwards.

Yeremy Pino vs Tottenham Back Line

Yeremy Pino is another key Palace threat from advanced areas. Across 8 appearances (7 starts) and 545 minutes, he has 1 goal, 12 key passes and 7 shots (2 on target). His dribbling output – 10 attempts, 3 successful – shows a willingness to take defenders on, and he has drawn 10 fouls, underlining how often he engages opponents 1v1. Discipline is a factor too, with 3 yellow cards already this season.

Tottenham’s defensive unit, which has kept 3 clean sheets in league play according to season statistics, will need to manage Pino’s movement between the lines and his ability to create chances. If Spurs can isolate him and limit his service, Palace’s already fragile attack becomes more predictable.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

This fixture has been unpredictable in recent years, with both sides enjoying big wins home and away. Tottenham have historically been strong at home against Palace, but the visitors have claimed notable victories in North London in the last two seasons.

  • 5 March 2026: Tottenham 1-3 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
  • 28 December 2025: Crystal Palace 0-1 Tottenham (Premier League)
  • 11 May 2025: Tottenham 0-2 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
  • 27 October 2024: Crystal Palace 1-0 Tottenham (Premier League)
  • 2 March 2024: Tottenham 3-1 Crystal Palace (Premier League)

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace Prediction

Recent form and underlying numbers point towards Tottenham having the edge, but not by a huge margin. Spurs’ recent run is relatively solid, and they have been more balanced in both boxes, conceding 1.3 goals per game compared to Palace’s 2.4. Palace’s last-five metrics are particularly concerning, with 11 goals conceded in that span and a defensive index of 0 in the recent-form model.

The prediction model gives Tottenham a 45% chance of victory, the draw also at 45%, and Crystal Palace only 10%. That aligns with the idea of a home-favoured but potentially cagey contest, where Spurs control territory but must be wary of Palace’s ability to strike in bursts, especially given their recent successes at this stadium.

With goals thresholds, not exact scores, provided for this match, the safest call is a low- to medium-scoring home win, with Palace’s defensive frailties eventually telling despite their counter-attacking threat.

Predicted Score: Tottenham 2-1 Crystal Palace

Tottenham Recent Form

Tottenham’s league form reads WWDLD over their last five Premier League games. That sequence shows only one defeat, with two wins and two draws, suggesting a team gradually finding stability after a slower start. Across 8 league matches they have scored 8 and conceded 10, with 3 clean sheets and 4 games in which they failed to score, highlighting the need for greater attacking consistency.

Crystal Palace Recent Form

Crystal Palace’s recent league form is LLWDL, reflecting a stop-start campaign. They have lost three of their last five, with a single win and one draw in that period. Over 8 matches they have scored 9 but conceded 19, and have managed just 1 clean sheet. Their last-five performance metrics show 5 goals scored but 11 conceded, underlining how quickly games can get away from them once they fall behind.

Tottenham Possible Starting Lineup

With no confirmed lineup data for this specific fixture, Tottenham’s likely core is built around their known squad options: goalkeepers B. Austin, M. Dúbravka and A. Kinský; defenders such as T. Adarabioyo, B. Davies, Pedro Porro, A. Robertson, M. Senesi, D. Udogie, J. van Hecke and M. van de Ven; midfielders including R. Bentancur, L. Bergvall, Mateus Fernandes, C. Gallagher, M. Kudus, Rio Kyerematen, J. Maddison, S. Tonali, D. Kulusevski and M. Tel; and attackers Richarlison, D. Solanke, Omar Marmoush, M. Mudryk and Sávio.

Season statistics indicate Tottenham have predominantly used a 4-2-3-1 system (7 matches) with occasional switches to 3-1-4-2. Expect a back four with attacking full-backs like Pedro Porro and D. Udogie, a double pivot featuring the combative Bentancur, and creative roles for J. Maddison and wide forwards such as M. Kudus or M. Mudryk supporting a central striker like Richarlison or D. Solanke.

Crystal Palace Possible Starting Lineup

Crystal Palace’s squad offers several options. In goal, D. Henderson is the senior option alongside W. Benítez. Defensively they can call on B. Chilwell, A. Disasi, Óscar Mingueza, C. Richards, T. Tomiyasu, C. Riad and T. Mitchell. Midfield choices include C. Doucouré, W. Hughes, D. Kamada, J. Lerma, Q. Timber and A. Wharton, while attacking options feature D. McNeil, J. Strand Larsen, J. Mateta, E. Nketiah, Yeremy Pino and I. Sarr.

Season data shows Palace have consistently lined up in a 3-4-2-1 across all 8 matches. That likely means a back three built around A. Disasi and C. Richards, wing-backs such as B. Chilwell and T. Tomiyasu, a central midfield pairing including C. Doucouré or W. Hughes, with D. Kamada and Yeremy Pino operating behind a lone striker like J. Strand Larsen or J. Mateta.

Tottenham Team News

No significant absences reported.

Crystal Palace Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Tottenham:

  • None reported.

Crystal Palace:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Tottenham vs Crystal Palace

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

  • Result Tip: Back Tottenham to win. The prediction model gives Spurs a 45% chance of victory with Crystal Palace at just 10%, and Palace’s defensive record (19 conceded in 8) is a major red flag. The market strongly agrees, with home odds ranging from 1.46 to 1.58, implying roughly a 63–69% chance of a Tottenham win based on prices across major bookmakers.
  • Goals Tip: Back over 1.5 total goals. Tottenham’s matches see an average of 2.3 goals (1.0 for, 1.3 against), and Palace games average 3.5 (1.1 for, 2.4 against). Recent head-to-heads at this ground have finished 1-3, 0-2 and 3-1, all clearing the 1.5 line comfortably. Use the over/under market from your preferred bookmaker at the available price.
  • Value Tip: Consider Crystal Palace to score at least once. Despite poor results, Palace have 9 goals in 8 games and creative outlets in D. Kamada (1 goal, 3 assists) and Yeremy Pino (1 goal, 12 key passes). Tottenham concede 1.3 goals per match on average and have received a red card this season through R. Bentancur, hinting at occasional defensive lapses. Look for a “Both Teams to Score – Yes” or “Crystal Palace over 0.5 goals” angle where the odds offer reasonable value relative to Palace’s attacking profile.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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