Arsenal host Chelsea at Emirates Stadium on 1 March 2026 in a Premier League clash with major implications at both ends of the European race. Arsenal sit top with 61 points and a +35 goal difference, while Chelsea are fifth on 45 points. Bookmakers are clear: the home side are strong favourites, with Arsenal priced around 1.58–1.66 for the win and Chelsea as high as 5.64 for an upset.
The official prediction model strongly backs Arsenal on the double chance (Arsenal or draw) with a combined 90% probability (45% home, 45% draw, only 10% away). That aligns with Arsenal’s dominance this season: 18 wins from 28 league games, just 3 losses, and an outstanding home record of 10 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat. They average 2.4 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per home game (31 for, 8 against in 13). Chelsea are solid but clearly a level below: 12 wins from 27, and away they are 6-4-3 with 25 goals for and 15 against, averaging 1.9 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Head-to-Head
Recent head-to-head data is heavily tilted towards Arsenal. The comparison model gives them 85% in H2H weighting, and they have repeatedly beaten Chelsea at Emirates: 1-0 (League Cup 2025), 1-0 (Premier League 2025), 5-0 (Premier League 2023), 3-1 (Premier League 2022). Chelsea have often managed to score at Stamford Bridge but rarely control games in North London.
Injuries and Analysis
Injuries add nuance but do not overturn the edge. Arsenal have doubts over Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz and Ben White, and miss M. Dowman and Mikel Merino, yet their attacking spread (Viktor Gyökeres 10 league goals, Leandro Trossard and Martin Ødegaard both among the top assist providers, plus Declan Rice’s 4 goals and 4 assists) suggests they can cope. Chelsea, meanwhile, are without several defenders and wide players (Levi Colwill, Marc Cucurella, W. Fofana, Mykhailo Mudryk among others), which is a concern against the league’s most efficient home attack.
The official advice is “Double chance: Arsenal or draw”, and that is the safest core angle. However, given Arsenal’s home scoring rate (2.4) and Chelsea’s away average (1.9 for, 1.2 against), a controlled but not wild game points to a 2-1 home win. For value, the straight home win around 1.60–1.66 (notably 1.66 at 1xBet or 1.63 at Marathonbet) looks justified by Arsenal’s elite home numbers and sustained H2H superiority, while still respecting the model’s Arsenal-or-draw framework.
