AS Roma vs Hellas Verona: Serie A Finale Preview

On 24 May 2026, the floodlights of Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Verona will frame a finale of contrasts: Hellas Verona fighting for pride at the foot of the table, AS Roma arriving with Champions League football already secured but still hungry to underline their status among Italy’s elite.

Season Context

For Hellas Verona, the numbers tell a bleak story. Nineteenth place with 21 points and a goal difference of -34 underlines a campaign of constant struggle (37 played, 3 wins, 12 draws, 22 defeats, 25 goals scored, 59 conceded). The label “Relegation - Serie B” captures the scale of the fall, and Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi has not been a fortress with just 1 home win in 18 attempts (12 goals for, 26 against).

AS Roma travel to Verona from a very different vantage point. Fourth in Serie A on 70 points with a goal difference of +26, they are firmly in the “Promotion - Champions League (League phase)” bracket (37 played, 22 wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats, 57 goals scored, 31 conceded). Strong at home and solid away (9 away wins, 24 goals scored, 21 conceded), they arrive as a side that has largely imposed its quality over the course of the year.

Form & Momentum

Hellas Verona’s recent path, summed up by the form string “DLDDL”, reflects a team that has rarely found rhythm (only 3 wins in 37). With 25 goals from those 37 matches, their attack has been blunt (0.68 goals per game), while 59 conceded (1.59 per game) shows a defence that has been consistently exposed. Even their last-five index numbers are modest, with just 20% overall form and 17% attacking output, despite a relatively better defensive index at 67%.

AS Roma arrive with momentum and confidence. Their form string “WWWWD” signals a side finishing strongly, backed by a season-long balance of 57 goals scored and only 31 conceded (1.54 scored and 0.84 conceded per game). The last-five indicators underline their surge: 87% form, 100% in attack and 75% in defence, supported by 12 goals scored and just 3 conceded in that span. This is the profile of a team that has found both cutting edge and defensive stability at the right time.

Head-to-Head Patterns

Recent meetings between these sides have swung back and forth, offering Verona hope but confirming Roma’s overall edge. On 28 September 2025, AS Roma beat Hellas Verona 2-0 at Stadio Olimpico (Serie A, season 2025, September 2025). Earlier, on 19 April 2025, AS Roma again prevailed 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico (Serie A, season 2024, April 2025), grinding out a narrow home victory.

However, Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi has not always been kind to the Giallorossi. On 3 November 2024, Hellas Verona edged a thriller 3-2 in Verona (Serie A, season 2024, November 2024), reminding Roma that this ground can turn hostile quickly. Looking a little further back, Roma’s 2-1 home win on 20 January 2024 (Serie A, season 2023, January 2024) and Verona’s 2-1 home success on 26 August 2023 (Serie A, season 2023, August 2023) reinforce the sense of a fixture that often produces tight, hard-fought scorelines.

Tactical Preview

Hellas Verona are likely to lean again on their familiar three-at-the-back structures. The 3-5-2 has been their reference system (25 matches), with occasional switches to 3-5-1-1 and 3-4-2-1 (4 matches each). Expect a compact block, wing-backs dropping deep to form a back five and heavy reliance on physical midfielders such as R. Gagliardini, whose 73 tackles and 54 interceptions (plus 10 yellow cards) underline his role as the primary disruptor. In advanced areas, G. Orban’s 7 goals and 2 assists show he remains their main threat, even if the overall return of 25 goals in 37 games reflects a limited attacking ceiling.

Defensively, Verona’s issues are structural as much as individual. Conceding 59 goals across 37 matches despite often fielding an extra centre-back highlights how often they are forced to defend deep and react (1.59 goals conceded per game). The card data reinforces the picture of a side frequently under pressure, with multiple midfielders and defenders accumulating high foul and booking counts, and G. Orban adding a red card to his attacking contribution. Against Roma’s movement between the lines, Verona’s back three will need strong protection from the midfield screen to avoid being dragged out of shape.

AS Roma, by contrast, have embraced a proactive 3-4-2-1 as their core identity (29 matches), occasionally morphing into 3-4-1-2 or 3-5-2. The back three is anchored by figures like G. Mancini and Hermoso, both comfortable on the ball and active defensively (Mancini with 51 tackles and 47 interceptions, Hermoso with 36 tackles and 28 interceptions). Out wide, Z. Çelik offers aggressive defending and forward thrust from his role, even if his disciplinary line includes one red card.

In attack, Roma’s variety is their biggest weapon. D. Malen has been a lethal focal point with 13 goals and 2 assists in 17 appearances, supported by high shot volume (46 total, 29 on target) and reliable penalties (3 scored). Around him, M. Soulé provides creativity and ball progression from the half-spaces, with 5 assists, 6 goals, 45 key passes and 92 dribble attempts showing how much of Roma’s attacking play flows through him. Behind them, Wesley’s 5 goals, 53 tackles and 33 key passes illustrate the modern all-action midfielder, capable of both breaking up play and driving the team forward despite his own disciplinary edge (one red card).

With 57 goals scored and only 31 conceded across 37 matches, Roma’s 3-4-2-1 has found a strong balance between control and penetration. Their 17 clean sheets underline defensive reliability, while Verona’s low scoring rate and reliance on transitions suggest they may struggle to sustain pressure unless they can turn this into a chaotic, second-ball contest.

Statistical Snapshot

• Competition: Serie A, season 2025 — 24 May 2026.
• Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Verona.
• Prediction: Winner : AS Roma.
• Win Probabilities: Home 10% / Draw 45% / Away 45%.
• Model: Hellas Verona 31.0% — AS Roma 69.0%.

Betting Verdict

The analytical case points firmly towards AS Roma. Their superior league position (4th with 70 points versus Verona’s 19th with 21), stronger goal balance (57 scored, 31 conceded) and outstanding recent form “WWWWD” contrast sharply with Verona’s “DLDDL” and season-long struggles in both boxes. Head-to-head trends also lean Roma’s way, with recent 2-0 and 1-0 wins in Rome and only the 3-2 defeat in Verona in November 2024 as a warning that this venue can bite back.

With major bookmakers clustering Roma’s away win price around 1.30–1.35 and Verona as clear outsiders around 10.00–11.00, the market reflects the gap suggested by the data. Given Roma’s attacking firepower through D. Malen and M. Soulé, combined with Verona’s low scoring output and porous defence, siding with “Winner : AS Roma” aligns with both form and underlying numbers. For those wary of late-season volatility, Roma to win remains the most coherent angle, with the odds roughly in line with their 69.0% model edge.