Newcastle host Everton at St. James' Park on 28 February 2026 in a mid-table Premier League clash with both sides separated by just one point (Everton 9th on 37, Newcastle 11th on 36). Despite that narrow gap, bookmakers clearly side with the hosts, making Newcastle strong favourites around 1.70–1.75, while Everton are pushed out to roughly 4.40–5.00. The market is pricing a home win, but the official data-driven prediction leans firmly towards Everton avoiding defeat.
The prediction model gives Newcastle only a 10% chance of victory, with draw and Everton each at 45%, and explicitly advises “Double chance: draw or Everton” with a “Win or draw” tag for the away side. That stance is backed by form and defensive metrics. Everton’s overall comparison edge is clear: 63% vs 38% on form, 67% vs 33% defensively, and a 57.3% total comparison in their favour. Away from home, Everton concede just 0.9 goals per game and score 1.0, a compact profile well suited to grinding out results.
Newcastle’s recent numbers are worrying: in their last five, they have conceded 12 goals (2.4 per game) and won only 20% of those matches. Over the season they allow 1.5 goals per home game, and their last-five defensive index is 0%. Crucially, they are without top scorer and creator Bruno Guimarães (9 goals, 4 assists), plus several other key players (E. Krafth, V. Livramento, L. Miley, F. Schar). That significantly weakens both their spine and depth.
Head-to-Head
Head-to-head also tilts slightly towards Everton’s resilience: across the last five league meetings, Everton have lost only once (W2 D2 L1), including a 1–0 win at St. James’ Park in May 2025 and a 1–1 draw there in April 2024. Everton themselves miss chief creator J. Grealish (6 assists), which further supports a lower-scoring, tight contest.
Officially, the prediction is that Everton will avoid defeat – the recommended angle is Everton or Draw (Double Chance). Given both sides’ goal averages (Newcastle home 1.8 for, 1.5 against; Everton away 1.0 for, 0.9 against) and key attacking absences, a controlled 1–1 draw fits the data best, with an Everton smash-and-grab 0–1 also plausible.
From a value perspective, the market overestimates Newcastle. With home win odds clustered around 1.68–1.75 and Everton out at 4.70–5.00, backing Everton on the double chance (Draw or Everton) at a fair composite price near evens or slightly above looks the smartest, model-aligned position for bettors.
