Nottingham Forest vs Burnley: Crucial Relegation Battle in Premier League

On a spring afternoon at the City Ground, a yet-to-be-played fixture between Nottingham Forest and Burnley is shaping up as a season-defining relegation battle in the Premier League. With the match scheduled for 19 April 2026 and Forest at home, the stakes are clear: Forest are trying to secure survival, while Burnley are fighting to keep faint hopes of a late escape alive.

In the league phase, Forest sit 16th with 33 points from 32 matches and a goal difference of -12. Burnley are 19th on 20 points with a far worse goal difference of -30. That 13‑point gap with only six games left means this single fixture can either all but confirm Forest’s safety or give Burnley a lifeline.

Head-to-head trajectory

Recent competitive meetings (excluding the cancelled friendly) show a narrow but important pattern. Across the last four matches:

• Burnley 1–1 Nottingham Forest (Premier League, 2025, at Turf Moor)
• Burnley 1–2 Nottingham Forest (Premier League, 2024, at Turf Moor)
• Nottingham Forest 1–1 Burnley (Premier League, 2023, at the City Ground)
• Nottingham Forest 0–1 Burnley (League Cup, 2023, at the City Ground)

Burnley have one win (the 1–0 League Cup tie), Forest have one league win (2–1 away), and there have been two league draws. The sides were level at 1–1 at HT in the 2025 draw, Burnley led 2–0 at HT before Forest’s 2–1 win in 2024, Burnley led 1–0 at HT in the 1–1 league draw at the City Ground, and the cup tie was 0–0 at HT before Burnley’s late winner.

The trend is that league encounters have been tight: three straight Premier League games without Burnley beating Forest, with Forest taking four points from the last two trips to Turf Moor. At the City Ground specifically, Burnley have proven awkward – a 1–1 league draw and a 1–0 cup win – underlining that home advantage has not translated into dominance for Forest in this matchup. Tactically, this suggests another low‑margin game where the first goal is likely decisive for momentum and psychological pressure.

Global season picture: league phase vs all phases

In the league phase, Forest’s profile is that of a team just doing enough. Their overall record is 8 wins, 9 draws, 15 defeats, scoring 32 and conceding 44. At home, they have been fragile: only 3 wins from 16, with 6 draws and 7 losses, and just 14 goals scored (0.9 per game) against 20 conceded (1.3 per game). That output shows why they are still in danger – the City Ground has not been a fortress.

Across all phases of the competition, Forest’s statistical pattern reinforces this picture of narrow margins. They have 8 clean sheets split evenly home and away, but they have also failed to score 14 times overall, including 9 at home. Their biggest home win is 3–0, yet their heaviest home defeat is also 0–3, underlining volatility. A longest losing streak of 4 and longest winning streak of only 2 matches reflect a side that struggles to sustain form.

Burnley’s league phase numbers are those of a team firmly in relegation trouble: 4 wins, 8 draws, 20 defeats, with 33 scored and 63 conceded. Away from home they have lost 11 of 16, conceding 38 goals (2.4 per game) and scoring 18 (1.1 per game). The defensive collapse away is the core reason for their league position.

Across all phases, Burnley’s defensive issues are even clearer. They have conceded 63 overall, with only 4 clean sheets, all at home. Away, they have not kept a single clean sheet and have a biggest away defeat of 5–1. A longest losing streak of 7 and just 4 wins in 32 underline how rare positive results are. Their goals-for averages (1.0 overall, 1.1 away) show they can score, but not at a rate that compensates for their defensive fragility.

The verdict: relegation pressure and survival thresholds

From a seasonal impact perspective, this fixture is almost a six‑pointer in the relegation narrative.

For Nottingham Forest, a home win would move them to 36 points in the league phase with four matches left. Given Burnley’s current total of 20, that would create at least a 16‑point gap with a maximum of 12 points remaining for Burnley – effectively confirming Burnley’s relegation and virtually securing Forest’s survival. It would also reward Forest’s modest but important resilience (9 draws, 8 clean sheets across all phases) by converting a relegation scrap into a manageable run‑in where they can target mid‑table security rather than survival at the final whistle of round 38.

A draw would still be a positive result for Forest in macro terms, taking them to 34 points and maintaining a 14‑point cushion over Burnley. That would keep survival heavily in Forest’s favour but might prolong uncertainty, especially given their poor home record and habit of failing to score at the City Ground.

For Burnley, the season impact is stark. They realistically need a win. Victory would lift them to 23 points, trimming the gap to 10 and at least keeping the arithmetic of survival alive, especially if other relegation rivals falter. It would also break an away pattern of 11 defeats in 16 and provide a rare psychological boost after a season marked by long losing runs.

Anything less than three points, though, and this match becomes the moment where Burnley’s relegation becomes more a matter of time than of probability. The combination of their defensive record across all phases and the current league phase table means that failure to win at the City Ground would likely reframe their remaining fixtures as preparation for the Championship, while Forest could then reorient their goals from pure survival to incremental improvement in league placing and defensive stability.