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AC Milan vs Bologna Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

AC Milan welcome Bologna to Milan on 28 October 2026 in Serie A Regular Season - 9, with the hosts looking to consolidate a strong start and keep pace with the early leaders. The match at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (city listed as Milan) pits a top-five side against a team sitting in the bottom half, but recent head-to-head clashes suggest this is rarely straightforward.

Milan come into the game 5th in Serie A on 15 points from 7 matches, unbeaten so far with 4 wins and 3 draws and a healthy +7 goal difference (14 scored, 7 conceded). Bologna, by contrast, are 13th with 8 points from 8 games, having already lost 4 times and carrying a -2 goal difference (8 scored, 10 conceded). With European qualification places in mind for Milan and mid-table stability the realistic target for Bologna, this fixture has clear stakes for both sides.

Stats suggest a clash between one of the league’s most efficient attacks and a Bologna side that has been inconsistent but capable of troubling bigger clubs, as shown in past Serie A and Coppa Italia meetings between these two.

AC Milan vs Bologna Key Stats

  • AC Milan are unbeaten in Serie A this season (4 wins, 3 draws) with 14 goals scored and 7 conceded across 7 matches.
  • In their most recent meeting on 3 February 2026 in Serie A, AC Milan beat Bologna 3-0 away at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
  • Across 7 league fixtures, Milan average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, while Bologna average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded over 8 matches.

AC Milan vs Bologna — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 5 vs 13
  • Points: 15 vs 8
  • Goals For: 14 vs 8
  • Goals Against: 7 vs 10
  • Clean Sheets: AC Milan 2, Bologna 1 (league statistics so far)

After 7 games, AC Milan sit 5th with 15 points and a +7 goal difference. They have been particularly strong at home, winning all 3 home matches with 8 goals scored and just 2 conceded. Their overall form string of WDWDD in the standings underlines a solid, if occasionally conservative, start.

Bologna are 13th with 8 points from 8 matches and a -2 goal difference. They have struggled at home (0 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats), but their away record is more competitive with 2 wins and 2 losses, 4 goals scored and 3 conceded. The form line of WLWDL reflects inconsistency, and defensively they have been more vulnerable at home than on the road, which may encourage a more compact away approach in Milan.

AC Milan vs Bologna Key Matchups

A. Rabiot vs Juan Miranda

Adrien Rabiot has been central to Milan’s early-season success. In 7 Serie A appearances (5 starts, 486 minutes), he has contributed 4 goals and 3 assists, making him both Milan’s leading scorer and joint-top creator. His 324 completed passes with 87% accuracy and 8 key passes highlight his dual role as a playmaker and finisher, while 10 tackles and 2 blocks show he contributes defensively as well.

For Bologna, Juan Miranda has been a key creative outlet from deeper positions. In 7 appearances (6 starts, 561 minutes), he has delivered 3 assists, with 12 key passes from 223 total passes at 80% accuracy. Defensively he has 14 tackles and 7 interceptions, underlining his importance on both sides of the ball. The battle between Rabiot operating between the lines and Miranda trying to lock down Bologna’s left side while also progressing play will be pivotal in determining who controls midfield territory.

Diego Moreira vs F. Bernardeschi

Diego Moreira has been an efficient attacking weapon for Milan. In 5 appearances (3 starts, 307 minutes), he has scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist, with 5 shots (4 on target) and an impressive 89% passing accuracy from 156 passes. His 10 successful dribbles from 18 attempts indicate a strong one‑v‑one threat that can destabilise Bologna’s defensive block.

Federico Bernardeschi is Bologna’s most dangerous forward on current numbers. Over 8 appearances (6 starts, 551 minutes), he has 2 goals, 0 assists, but 8 key passes from 200 total passes at 87% accuracy. He has taken 16 shots with 9 on target and completed 10 dribbles from 19 attempts, while also drawing 11 fouls. Bernardeschi’s ability to carry the ball and threaten from distance could punish any lapses from Milan’s back line, particularly if Bologna are forced to play on the counter.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

The recent head-to-head history between AC Milan and Bologna has been competitive, with both sides enjoying notable wins in league and cup. Milan have generally had the upper hand in Serie A, but Bologna have shown they can upset the Rossoneri in knockout football and at home.

  • 3 February 2026: Bologna 0-3 AC Milan (Serie A)
  • 14 September 2025: AC Milan 1-0 Bologna (Serie A)
  • 14 May 2025: AC Milan 0-1 Bologna (Coppa Italia)
  • 9 May 2025: AC Milan 3-1 Bologna (Serie A)
  • 27 February 2025: Bologna 2-1 AC Milan (Serie A)

AC Milan vs Bologna Prediction

Recent form and underlying numbers point towards a home win, but not an entirely one-sided affair. Milan are unbeaten in the league, averaging 2.0 goals scored per match and conceding just 1.0. At home they have been perfect, with 3 wins from 3 and strong defensive control. Bologna’s away numbers are respectable (2 wins, 2 losses, 4-3 goal difference), and they tend to keep games relatively tight, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 0.8 conceded per away match.

The prediction model gives AC Milan a 45% chance of winning, the draw also at 45%, and Bologna just 10%. That indicates strong favouritism for Milan in terms of avoiding defeat, with a high likelihood of a closely contested match where Bologna can frustrate but may struggle to create sustained pressure. Milan’s clean-sheet record (2 in 7) and Bologna’s modest attacking output suggest a scoreline on the lower side, especially with Milan often pulling away in the 61–75 minute window where a significant share of their goals have come.

Predicted Score: AC Milan 2-1 Bologna

AC Milan Recent Form

Milan’s recent Serie A form of WDWDD reflects a team that is difficult to beat, combining solid defensive structure with enough attacking quality to edge tight games. They have yet to lose, have not failed to score in any of their 7 league fixtures, and their biggest home win of 3-0 underlines their capacity to dominate at San Siro.

Bologna Recent Form

Bologna’s recent form line WLWDL underlines inconsistency. They have mixed impressive away wins with disappointing home results, and overall have 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 8 matches. Their defence has been more solid away than at home, but they have failed to score in 3 of their 8 league games, which is a concern going into a trip to one of the division’s stronger back lines.

AC Milan Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Maignan; Defenders: S. Pavlović, F. Tomori, M. Gabbia, Mario Gila; Midfielders: A. Rabiot, Y. Musah, R. Loftus-Cheek, L. Modrić, C. Pulišić; Forwards: Diego Moreira or Gonçalo Ramos.

Milan have predominantly used a three-at-the-back system this season, most often a 3-4-2-1, but have also shown flexibility with 4-4-2 and 3-4-3. With Maignan in goal and a strong central defensive unit including Pavlović and Tomori, they have a solid platform. In midfield, Rabiot’s all-round influence, supported by technical profiles like Modrić and Loftus-Cheek, gives Milan control and progression. Wide and attacking roles can be filled by Pulišić, Saelemaekers, Chukwueze and Diego Moreira, while Gonçalo Ramos offers a focal point up front. The depth in attacking midfield and wing positions allows Milan to maintain intensity and threaten Bologna throughout the 90 minutes.

Bologna Possible Starting Lineup

GK: Ł. Skorupski; Defenders: N. Casale, A. Theate, M. Darmian, Juan Miranda; Midfielders: L. Ferguson, N. Moro, E. Holm, N. Zortea; Forwards: F. Bernardeschi, A. Dovbyk.

Bologna have alternated between 4-2-3-1, 3-4-3 and 3-4-2-1, with 4-2-3-1 used most frequently. Skorupski provides experience in goal, while Casale, Theate and Darmian offer a mix of physicality and positional awareness at the back. Juan Miranda and N. Zortea can give width from deeper roles, and in midfield Ferguson and Moro bring energy and ball-winning. In attack, Bernardeschi and Cambiaghi are key creative and dribbling threats, while Dovbyk can act as a target man. Expect Bologna to set up compactly, aiming to spring forward through Bernardeschi and Cambiaghi when Milan commit numbers.

AC Milan Team News

No significant absences reported.

Bologna Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

AC Milan:

  • None reported.

Bologna:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: AC Milan vs Bologna

Exactly 3 distinct betting angles, built from current form, head-to-head trends and available odds.

  • Result Tip: Back AC Milan to win. The prediction model rates Milan at 45% to win and 90% to avoid defeat (win or draw), with Bologna given just a 10% chance of victory. Milan are unbeaten in the league and perfect at home, while Bologna have already lost 4 of 8 matches. Market odds for a home win range from 1.57 to 1.65 across bookmakers, implying an approximate probability band of 60.6% to 63.7%, which aligns with Milan’s strong underlying numbers.
  • Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. Milan’s league matches average 3.0 goals per game (14 for, 7 against in 7 fixtures), while Bologna’s average 2.3 (8 for, 10 against in 8 games). Recent head-to-head clashes have often been open, including 3-0, 3-1 and 2-1 scorelines. With Milan averaging 2.0 goals scored per match and Bologna rarely keeping clean sheets (just 1 in 8), a goal line above 1.5 looks statistically well supported. Use the main goals market from your preferred bookmaker alongside the match winner odds quoted (for reference, draw odds range from 3.80 to 4.28, away win from 5.00 to 5.71).
  • Value Tip: A. Rabiot to score or assist. Rabiot has 4 goals and 3 assists in 7 league appearances, directly contributing to 7 of Milan’s 14 goals so far. That level of involvement makes him a prime candidate in player performance markets (anytime scorer or to record a goal contribution), especially against a Bologna side conceding 1.3 goals per game. With the match winner market pricing Milan as clear favourites (home odds as low as 1.57), looking to Rabiot in individual markets may offer better value relative to risk than simply backing the short home price.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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