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Anderlecht vs PAOK Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Anderlecht host PAOK at Lotto Park in Anderlecht on 13 August 2026 in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. The Belgians hold a slender advantage after a 1-0 away win in Thessaloniki on 6 August 2026, and now return home with a clear path to the play-off round if they can avoid defeat.

For Anderlecht, this is a major opportunity to move within one step of the Europa League group stage. Their early tournament form has been solid, with no defeats across three matches and a strong defensive record. PAOK, meanwhile, must overturn the deficit on the road. They have shown attacking punch in this campaign but were shut out at Toumba Stadium in the first leg, leaving them needing at least one goal in Belgium to stay alive.

With both sides averaging 1.7 goals scored per game in the competition so far and each posting one clean sheet, this second leg sets up as a finely balanced contest. Bettors and fans alike will be weighing Anderlecht’s home advantage and unbeaten run against PAOK’s ability to score heavily away from home.

Anderlecht vs PAOK Key Stats

  • Across their Europa League campaign so far, Anderlecht are unbeaten in 3 matches (2 wins, 1 draw), scoring 5 and conceding 2.
  • The only recent head-to-head meeting came on 6 August 2026, when Anderlecht beat PAOK 1-0 away in Thessaloniki in the Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round.
  • In tournament statistics, both teams have scored 5 goals in 3 matches (1.7 per game), while Anderlecht have conceded 0.7 per game and PAOK 1.0 per game.

Anderlecht vs PAOK — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: Not available vs Not available
  • Points: Not available vs Not available
  • Goals For: Not available vs Not available
  • Goals Against: Not available vs Not available
  • Clean Sheets: Anderlecht 1 (tournament statistics); PAOK 1 (tournament statistics)

Official group-stage standings are not yet in play at this qualifying phase, but early Europa League statistics provide a clear picture. Anderlecht have played 3 matches, winning 2 and drawing 1, with 5 goals scored and only 2 conceded. Their defensive record is particularly impressive, with just 0.7 goals conceded per game and only one match in which they have allowed more than a single goal.

PAOK have also recorded 2 wins and 1 defeat across 3 matches, matching Anderlecht’s 5 goals scored but conceding 3. Their results include a 2-0 home win and a 3-2 away victory, underlining their ability to find the net, especially on the road where they average 3.0 goals per game. However, the first-leg defeat at home to Anderlecht raises questions about how they will cope against a compact Belgian side that has yet to lose in this campaign.

Anderlecht vs PAOK Key Matchups

Anderlecht attack vs PAOK defence

Anderlecht’s attack has been efficient rather than explosive, with 5 goals in 3 Europa League outings at an average of 1.7 per match. At home they have scored 3 goals in 1 game, showing they can be more expansive at Lotto Park. Their scoring pattern is notable: a significant share of their goals have come in the opening 15 minutes and the final quarter-hour of matches, suggesting a team that starts fast and finishes strong.

PAOK’s defence has been generally solid but not watertight, conceding 3 goals in 3 matches (1.0 per game). At home they have allowed only 0.5 goals per game, but away from Thessaloniki that figure jumps to 2.0. Crucially, in the first leg they failed to deal with Anderlecht’s early threat, conceding before half-time and never recovering. The key battle will be whether PAOK can keep Anderlecht quiet in those high-impact early and late phases where the Belgians have been most dangerous.

PAOK attack vs Anderlecht defence

On the other side, PAOK’s attack has been one of their strengths: 5 goals in 3 matches, including a 3-goal haul away from home, again at 1.7 per game overall. Much of their threat has come between the 31st and 60th minutes, where a large share of their goals have been scored. That mid-game surge could be vital as they chase the tie in Belgium.

Anderlecht’s defence, however, has been very consistent. They have conceded just 2 goals across 3 matches and have already kept one clean sheet — the 1-0 win in Thessaloniki. Their goals-against profile shows vulnerability mainly very early and very late in games, but they have managed game states well, never conceding more than once in a match. If Anderlecht maintain that structure, PAOK will need to be clinical with the few chances they create.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides have only recently crossed paths in European competition, with the first leg providing the freshest and only relevant reference point for this tie.

  • 6 August 2026: PAOK 0-1 Anderlecht (UEFA Europa League)

Anderlecht vs PAOK Prediction

Stats suggest a very finely balanced second leg. The prediction model rates Anderlecht and the draw equally, with a 45% chance each, and PAOK given a 10% chance of an outright win in 90 minutes. That aligns with the narrative of a home side that is unbeaten, defensively reliable, and holding a first-leg lead, against a PAOK team that must chase the game away from home.

Anderlecht’s recent form in the competition (2 wins and 1 draw) and their ability to manage tight scorelines point towards a cautious, control-focused performance. PAOK’s need to score should open the game up, particularly after half-time, but their defensive numbers away from home are a concern. Expect Anderlecht to prioritise solidity, allow PAOK more of the ball, and look to exploit transitions, especially late on when the Greeks push forward.

Predicted Score: Anderlecht 1-1 PAOK

Anderlecht Recent Form

Anderlecht’s recent Europa League form reads as a strong, unbeaten run. Over 3 matches they have 2 wins and 1 draw, with 5 goals scored and only 2 conceded. They have kept 1 clean sheet and have yet to fail to score in the competition. Their last-five form index sits at 78, with a particularly strong defensive index of 85, underlining how difficult they have been to break down so far.

PAOK Recent Form

PAOK have also started their Europa League campaign positively, with 2 wins and 1 defeat in 3 matches. They have scored 5 goals and conceded 3, with one clean sheet and one match in which they failed to score. Their last-five form index stands at 67, with balanced attacking and defensive indices (both at 38 in attack and 77 in defence), suggesting a competitive but slightly less consistent profile than Anderlecht’s.

Anderlecht Possible Starting Lineup

GK: C. Coosemans or J. Heekeren; Defenders: L. Augustinsson, G. Biancone, L. Hey, K. Sardella, M. N’Diaye; Midfielders: E. Llansana, M. Stroeykens, O. Antman, I. Camara, N. Saliba; Forwards: D. Sikan, A. Bertaccini, M. Cvetkovic, E. Dao.

Anderlecht have a deep squad with multiple options in defence and midfield. The presence of experienced defenders like L. Augustinsson and G. Biancone should support their compact approach, while creative midfielders such as M. Stroeykens and O. Antman can link play to forwards like D. Sikan and A. Bertaccini. Their tournament statistics show flexibility between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3, and with no defeats so far, there is little incentive to deviate from that balanced structure.

PAOK Possible Starting Lineup

GK: J. Pavlenka or A. Tsiftsis; Defenders: A. Baba, P. Hatzidiakos, Elustondo, J. Kenny, L. Lyratzis; Midfielders: M. Camara, S. Meïté, D. Pelkas, K. Despodov, G. Konstantelias, A. Živković, Taison; Forwards: T. Ali, A. Jeremejeff, M. Balde.

PAOK have consistently used a 4-2-3-1 shape in this Europa League run, which suits their need to push numbers forward without completely sacrificing balance. Creative players such as D. Pelkas, K. Despodov and A. Živković can operate behind a central striker like A. Jeremejeff, while M. Camara and S. Meïté provide stability in midfield. With 3 goals scored away from home already in this campaign, their attacking unit is capable of troubling Anderlecht if they can sustain pressure.

Anderlecht Team News

No significant absences reported.

PAOK Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Anderlecht:

  • None reported.

PAOK:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Anderlecht vs PAOK

Exactly 3 distinct betting angles stand out for this Europa League qualifier second leg.

  • Result Tip: Double chance Anderlecht or Draw. With predictions giving Anderlecht a 45% chance to win and the draw also at 45%, against just 10% for a PAOK victory, the safer angle is to back the home side not to lose. The market, however, slightly favours PAOK in the 1X2 odds, with away prices around 2.55–2.68 (implied probability roughly 37.3%–39.2%) compared to home odds around 2.80–2.94 (about 34.0%–35.7%). That discrepancy suggests some value on Anderlecht’s resilience, especially given their unbeaten record.
  • Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. Both teams average 1.7 goals scored per game in this Europa League run, and only one of Anderlecht’s three matches has gone under 1.5 goals, while two of PAOK’s three have gone over that line. The first leg finished 1-0, but with PAOK forced to attack in the second leg, the game state should be more open. Look for over 1.5 goals at odds in line with standard goal markets from the listed bookmakers.
  • Value Tip: PAOK to score at least once. PAOK have scored 5 goals in 3 matches and have already produced a 3-goal performance away from home. Anderlecht’s defence is strong, but they have conceded in two of their three matches and can be vulnerable early and late in games. Any “PAOK over 0.5 team goals” or “Both Teams to Score – Yes” market priced above the implied 60–65% range could offer value, especially given PAOK’s attacking profile and need to chase the tie.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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