AS Roma vs Sassuolo Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

AS Roma welcome Sassuolo to Stadio Olimpico in Rome on 7 November 2026 for a Serie A clash that pits one of the league’s form sides against a team fighting at the wrong end of the table. With Roma pushing near the top and Sassuolo hovering just above the relegation places, this fixture carries very different pressures for the two clubs.

Roma arrive in outstanding domestic shape: unbeaten after 10 league games, sitting 3rd with 24 points, 28 goals scored and only 10 conceded. Sassuolo, by contrast, are 17th on 8 points from the same number of matches, with a worrying goal difference of -10 and the joint-worst defensive record among the two. For bettors and neutral observers alike, this AS Roma vs Sassuolo prediction centres on whether the visitors can withstand Roma’s attacking power at the Olimpico.

The recent head-to-head record leans heavily Roma’s way, and the underlying stats from Serie A 2026 suggest another long evening for Sassuolo’s back line. With top performers like Donyell Malen, Paulo Dybala and Matías Soulé in strong form, Roma will expect to turn dominance on paper into three points on the pitch.

AS Roma vs Sassuolo Key Stats

• Roma are 3rd in Serie A with 24 points from 10 matches (7 wins, 3 draws, 0 defeats), scoring 28 and conceding 10.
• Sassuolo are 17th with 8 points from 10 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats), scoring 16 and conceding 26.
• Roma have won the last four Serie A meetings against Sassuolo (from December 2023 to January 2026), with an aggregate score of 6–1 in those four games.
• Roma average 2.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per league match this season, while Sassuolo average 1.6 scored and 2.6 conceded.
• Roma have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 league fixtures; Sassuolo have yet to keep a single clean sheet (0 in 10).

AS Roma vs Sassuolo — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 3 vs 17
• Points: 24 vs 8
• Goals For: 28 vs 16
• Goals Against: 10 vs 26
• Clean Sheets: Roma 5 (tournament statistics), Sassuolo 0 (tournament statistics)

Across 10 Serie A matches, Roma have built the profile of a genuine title challenger: unbeaten, with 7 wins and a goal difference of +18. They have been equally strong home and away, scoring 14 goals in 5 home matches and 14 in 5 away, and conceding just 1 goal per game on average. Their home record (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats) underlines how daunting a trip to Stadio Olimpico has become.

Sassuolo’s numbers tell the opposite story. With 6 defeats in 10 and 26 goals conceded, they are leaking 2.6 goals per match. Away from home, they have taken just 1 point from 5 games (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses), scoring 6 and conceding 12. The lack of clean sheets and a negative goal difference of -10 leave them in 17th place, just above the drop zone, and this visit to one of the league’s most potent attacks looks particularly ill-timed.

AS Roma vs Sassuolo Key Matchups

Donyell Malen vs Domenico Berardi

Donyell Malen has been one of Serie A’s standout forwards this season for Roma. In 9 appearances (8 starts, 575 minutes), he has scored 8 goals and provided 1 assist, averaging nearly a goal per game. His shot volume is high — 30 attempts with 15 on target — and he also contributes creatively with 13 key passes and 84% passing accuracy. Malen’s dribbling threat (24 attempts, 15 successful) and willingness to run at defenders will severely test a Sassuolo back line that concedes 2.6 goals per match. Discipline is a minor concern (1 yellow, 1 red), but his overall impact is decisive.

For Sassuolo, Domenico Berardi remains the key attacking reference. In 9 appearances (7 starts, 620 minutes), he has 2 goals, 11 shots (9 on target) and 10 key passes, with a solid 79% passing accuracy. Berardi also works hard defensively, with 14 tackles and 10 interceptions, and draws plenty of fouls (12). However, his 3 yellow cards underline how often he is involved in physical duels. In this matchup, Berardi must both lead Sassuolo’s counter-attacks and help protect his full-back against Roma’s wing play, a demanding double role against an in-form Roma side.

Paulo Dybala vs Kristian Thorstvedt

Paulo Dybala has been Roma’s creative heartbeat. In just 6 appearances (all starts, 496 minutes), he has delivered 4 assists, underlining his status as one of Serie A’s top providers. He has taken 19 shots (6 on target), made 25 key passes and completed 269 passes at 81% accuracy. Dybala also contributes defensively with 4 tackles and 3 interceptions, while staying disciplined (no cards). Operating between the lines, his ability to find Malen and Soulé in dangerous areas is central to Roma’s attacking structure.

Kristian Thorstvedt, meanwhile, offers Sassuolo a box-to-box presence. In 8 appearances (4 starts, 340 minutes), he has scored 1 goal, taken 8 shots (6 on target) and made 6 key passes, with an impressive 88% passing accuracy. He competes well physically, winning 24 of 42 duels, and has 5 tackles and 2 interceptions. However, he also has 1 yellow and 1 red card, highlighting a tendency to overstep in challenges. Thorstvedt will need to be aggressive but controlled in midfield battles against Roma’s technical core; any rash challenge could leave Sassuolo undermanned against such a dangerous attack.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent meetings between Roma and Sassuolo have been high on intensity, with Roma largely dominating in the last few years, especially in Serie A fixtures both home and away.

• 10 January 2026: AS Roma 2-0 Sassuolo (Serie A)
• 26 October 2025: Sassuolo 0-1 AS Roma (Serie A)
• 17 March 2024: AS Roma 1-0 Sassuolo (Serie A)
• 3 December 2023: Sassuolo 1-2 AS Roma (Serie A)
• 12 March 2023: AS Roma 3-4 Sassuolo (Serie A)

AS Roma vs Sassuolo Prediction

Stats suggest a one-sided contest on paper. Roma combine elite attacking output (2.8 goals per match) with a solid defence (1.0 conceded) and are unbeaten in 10. Sassuolo, by contrast, come into this with a poor recent run — their last-five indicator is extremely low, with 7 out of 100 in the comparison model — and have conceded 17 goals in their last 5 matches alone according to the prediction data’s last-five summary.

The prediction model gives Roma a 50% chance of winning, with a 50% chance of a draw and effectively no probability assigned to a Sassuolo victory (0%). While that slightly underestimates Roma’s market dominance, it underlines how unlikely an away win appears. Head-to-head trends also favour Roma, who have won four of the last five Serie A meetings.

Given Roma’s firepower, Sassuolo’s defensive fragility, and multiple absences for the visitors, the most plausible match flow is Roma controlling territory and possession, creating frequent chances through Dybala and Soulé for Malen. Sassuolo’s best hope lies in transitions through Berardi and their forwards, but sustaining pressure looks difficult over 90 minutes at the Olimpico.

Predicted Score: AS Roma 2-0 Sassuolo

AS Roma Recent Form

Roma’s recent form in Serie A is excellent. Their standings form line reads WWDWD across the last five league fixtures, reflecting a team that is consistently taking points and rarely even looking threatened. With 7 wins and 3 draws from 10 matches overall, plus 5 clean sheets, they are combining attacking fluency with defensive control.

Sassuolo Recent Form

Sassuolo’s recent form is worrying. Their last five in the standings show LLLLD, with four straight defeats followed by a draw. Over 10 league games they have already lost 6 times, and their defensive numbers are among the poorest in the division. The recent comparison metrics (very low form and defensive indices) underline a side in clear decline heading into a daunting away trip.

AS Roma Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Svilar or P. Gollini; Defenders: G. Mancini, L. Balerdi, Hermoso, E. Ndicka, D. Rensch; Midfielders: B. Cristante, L. Pellegrini, Wesley, P. Dybala, M. Soulé, N. Molina; Forwards: D. Malen, S. Castro.

Roma have a deep and versatile squad, with several options across the back three and wing-back roles, and a wealth of creativity and goals in advanced positions. The team statistics show they have mostly lined up in a 3-4-2-1, occasionally shifting to 3-5-2 or 3-4-1-2, which suits the profiles of Dybala and Soulé operating behind Malen. With no reported absences on Roma’s side, the coach can rotate without losing quality, maintaining high pressing and attacking width that has been key to their 28 goals in 10 games.

Sassuolo Possible Starting Lineup

GK: A. Murić or S. Turati; Defenders: D. Ćaleta-Car, J. Idzes, C. Odenthal, J. Doig, Rafael Obrador; Midfielders: A. Ghion, N. Matić, I. Sulemana, K. Thorstvedt; Forwards: D. Berardi, A. Laurienté, K. Bowie, S. Esposito.

Sassuolo have predominantly used a 4-3-3, with some matches in a 4-2-3-1. However, they arrive with several important absentees in midfield and defence, which may force adjustments. With no clean sheets in 10 matches and 26 goals conceded, the tactical emphasis will likely be on compactness and counter-attacking through Berardi and Laurienté. Thorstvedt’s presence in midfield is crucial for linking phases and adding physicality, but discipline will be vital given his previous red card.

AS Roma Team News

No significant absences reported.

Sassuolo Team News

Sassuolo are dealing with multiple injuries that weaken their squad depth, especially in midfield and defence, which could heavily influence their selection and limit rotation options at Stadio Olimpico.

Injuries & Suspensions

AS Roma:

• None reported.

Sassuolo:

• I. Koné — Reason: Broken Leg
• E. Pieragnolo — Reason: Jumpers Knee
• Fali Candé — Reason: Jumpers Knee
• D. Boloca — Reason: Muscle Bruise
• Y. Paz — Reason: Jumpers Knee

Betting Tips: AS Roma vs Sassuolo

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back AS Roma to win. Roma are unbeaten (7 wins, 3 draws) with a +18 goal difference, while Sassuolo have lost 6 of 10 and are winless away (0-1-4). The market strongly favours Roma, with home odds ranging from 1.29 to 1.36, implying an approximate probability between 73.5% (1 ÷ 1.36 × 100) and 77.5% (1 ÷ 1.29 × 100). Given Roma’s dominant form and H2H record, the home win looks a solid anchor for accumulators.
• Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. Both teams’ seasonal stats point to goals: Roma matches average 3.8 goals (2.8 for, 1.0 against), while Sassuolo’s average 4.2 (1.6 for, 2.6 against). Sassuolo have seen at least one goal in all 10 league games (no clean sheets, only one failure to score), and Roma’s attack is prolific. The predictions advice explicitly leans to “Winner: AS Roma and +1.5 goals”, reinforcing the expectation of at least two goals in the match.
• Value Tip: Roma to win to nil (or Roma -1 handicap, where available). Roma have 5 clean sheets in 10 matches and have conceded just 5 goals in 5 home games. Sassuolo have failed to score in 1 of their 5 away fixtures and are missing several midfielders who help in build-up. With Roma’s defensive metrics strong and Sassuolo’s attack inconsistent, a Roma win combined with a clean sheet or a handicap line could offer a better price than the short home win odds (away odds are 7.50–8.75, implying only about 11.4–13.3% chance of a shock Sassuolo victory).

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.