Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips
Benfica welcome AZ Alkmaar to Lisbon on 28 January 2027 in the UEFA Europa League League Stage - 8, with the Portuguese side looking to turn their strong recent continental form into early points in the league round. Although the venue name is not specified, the game is set in Lisbon, which should provide a familiar backdrop for a Benfica team that has been free-scoring in Europe.
From a standings perspective, both Benfica and AZ Alkmaar start this phase on 0 points with no games played yet in the league round. However, the underlying Europa League statistics paint a very different picture: Benfica arrive with six matches of high-output attacking football behind them, while AZ Alkmaar are essentially a statistical unknown in this season’s competition, having no fixtures recorded yet. That contrast will heavily shape expectations for this Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar prediction.
For bettors and fans searching for Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar betting tips and a data-led Europa League prediction, the key question is whether AZ can contain a Benfica attack averaging more than three goals per game in recent tournament action, or if the Dutch side’s fresh slate will translate into resilience rather than rust.
Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Key Stats
- Benfica sit 4th in the Europa League League Round table on 0 points, while AZ Alkmaar are 3rd, with both yet to play a league-round fixture.
- No recent head-to-head meetings are recorded between Benfica and AZ Alkmaar in this Europa League dataset.
- Across 6 Europa League matches this season, Benfica have scored 19 goals (average 3.2 per game) and conceded 6, with just 1 clean sheet in their tournament statistics.
Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar — Tale of the Tape
- Position: 4 vs 3
- Points: 0 vs 0
- Goals For: 0 vs 0
- Goals Against: 0 vs 0
- Clean Sheets: Benfica 1 (tournament statistics), AZ Alkmaar 0 (tournament statistics)
Officially, the standings table for the League Round shows both sides level on points, goals scored and conceded, as no matches have yet been played in this phase. AZ Alkmaar are listed 3rd and Benfica 4th in the League Round group, but with identical basic records this is more a quirk of initial ranking than a meaningful gap.
Looking deeper at tournament statistics, Benfica’s six Europa League games so far have produced 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 19 goals scored and 6 conceded. They have been especially dominant at “home” in the competition, with 14 goals in 3 home matches (4.7 per game) and only 2 conceded. AZ, by contrast, have no recorded Europa League fixtures this season, leaving their true level in this competition untested. That asymmetry suggests Benfica enter this tie with far more proven attacking rhythm and structure.
Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Key Matchups
V. Pavlidis vs C. Stengs
Benfica’s standout attacking figure in the Europa League so far is V. Pavlidis. The forward has made 3 appearances and already scored 5 goals, adding 1 assist. He has also picked up 1 yellow card, underlining his combative edge in the final third. Pavlidis tops both the goals and assists charts for Benfica in this competition, making him the clear focal point of their attack.
For AZ Alkmaar, the most recognisable creative name in the squad list is C. Stengs. While there are no Europa League-specific stats recorded for him this season in the data provided, his role as a midfielder with the number 14 shirt and his profile within the squad point to him being a key conduit between midfield and attack. The duel here is less direct in positional terms and more about influence: Pavlidis’ ruthless finishing against Stengs’ ability to supply and unlock Benfica’s back line. If AZ are to disrupt Benfica’s flow, limiting service into Pavlidis and denying him space between the lines will be crucial.
Rafa vs J. Hornkamp
Rafa has been another important attacking piece for Benfica. In 4 Europa League appearances, the forward has scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist, with no cards. His ability to drift between lines, combine with Pavlidis and attack spaces in transition makes him a constant threat, especially against a defence that has yet to be tested in this season’s tournament.
J. Hornkamp is one of AZ Alkmaar’s central attacking options, listed as an attacker wearing number 19. While he has no recorded Europa League statistics this season, his presence as a senior forward suggests he could be the main outlet when AZ look to break Benfica’s press. The matchup between Rafa’s movement and Hornkamp’s capacity to hold up play and finish chances will go a long way to determining which side dictates the tempo in the final third.
Head-to-Head: Last Meetings
There are no recent head-to-head meetings between Benfica and AZ Alkmaar recorded in this Europa League data. This adds an element of tactical intrigue, with both sides approaching the tie without a recent direct reference point.
Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction
Form indicators are heavily tilted towards Benfica. Their last five Europa League outings show 18 goals scored and just 4 conceded, with an attacking index of 100 and defensive index of 76 in the recent run. The overall tournament form string of LWWDWW confirms they have responded well after an early setback, building a two-game winning streak and scoring freely.
AZ Alkmaar, by contrast, arrive with no Europa League fixtures recorded this season, so their recent tournament form is effectively a blank slate. The comparison block rates their recent form and attack at 0, with defense at 100, but that is more a reflection of no data than a proven defensive wall. With predictions.percent giving an even 33% chance to each of home win, draw and away win, the probability model is non-committal, but the underlying statistics clearly favour Benfica’s proven attacking power at home in Lisbon.
Given Benfica’s average of 3.2 goals per Europa League game, their perfect record of scoring in all six matches, and AZ’s untested status, the most likely match flow sees Benfica dominating possession, creating a high volume of chances and eventually breaking down the Dutch side. AZ’s best route into the game will be via counter-attacks and set pieces, but sustaining that over 90 minutes against a side with multiple in-form forwards looks challenging.
Predicted Score: Benfica 2-1 AZ Alkmaar
Benfica Recent Form
Benfica’s Europa League recent form reads as LWWDWW, showing one early defeat followed by a strong recovery: four wins and one draw in their last five tournament matches. They have been prolific, scoring 19 goals in 6 games and conceding only 6. At “home” in the competition they have 3 wins from 3, with 14 goals scored and 2 conceded, underlining a formidable European record in Lisbon.
AZ Alkmaar Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar have no recorded Europa League fixtures this season in the data provided, so there is no tournament-specific recent form string to assess. Statistically, they start from a clean slate: 0 games played, 0 goals scored and 0 conceded, and no wins, draws or losses registered in this competition phase.
Benfica Possible Starting Lineup
Key available players (grouped by position):
Goalkeepers: A. Trubin, Samuel Soares, Diogo Ferreira
Defenders: C. Lenglet, A. Bah, Tomás Araújo, S. Dahl, A. Circati, S. El Karouani, Gabriel Indio, J. Neto, Rui Silva
Midfielders: João Palhinha, L. Barreiro, E. Barrenechea, H. Sudakov, J. Kamiński, Manu, F. Aursnes, C. Echeverri, Gonçalo Carvalho Moreira, M. Figueiredo, A. Schjelderup, Rafa, G. Prestianni
Forwards/Attackers: V. Pavlidis, J. Durán, D. Lukebakio, Bruma, A. Cabral, Felipe Lima
Benfica’s tournament statistics suggest a side comfortable in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-3-2, formations they have already used multiple times. With Pavlidis in prolific form and Rafa, Schjelderup and Lukebakio all contributing goals and assists, the attacking band behind the striker is rich in options. At the back, C. Lenglet and Tomás Araújo have both chipped in with goals, while A. Bah offers width and an assist threat from full-back. The depth in midfield, including Palhinha, Sudakov and Barreiro, should allow Benfica to control central areas and recycle possession aggressively.
AZ Alkmaar Possible Starting Lineup
Key available players (grouped by position):
Goalkeepers: R. Owusu-Oduro, H. Verhulst, J. Zoet, J. De Busser, I. Ka
Defenders: W. Goes, W. Hoedt, M. Chávez, L. Schouten, D. Kasius, S. Maikuma, R. Ichihara, E. Dijkstra, M. de Wit, A. Natali
Midfielders: J. Clasie, P. Koopmeiners, D. Kwakman, S. Resink, R. Robbemond, K. Smit, H. de Wit, V. Byskov, R. Daal, J. Oerip, C. Stengs
Forwards/Attackers: J. Hornkamp, M. Meerdink, Weslley Patati, B. Kovacs, A. Oufkir
Without Europa League match data for AZ, it is difficult to pin down an exact shape, but the squad composition points towards a balanced 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3. Experience from players like J. Clasie and W. Hoedt should provide leadership, while Stengs is likely to be the creative hub between midfield and attack. Hornkamp and Meerdink offer central striking options, with Weslley Patati providing pace and direct running from wide areas. The key tactical question will be whether AZ set up conservatively to absorb Benfica’s pressure or try to press higher and disrupt Benfica’s build-up.
Benfica Team News
No significant absences reported.
AZ Alkmaar Team News
No significant absences reported.
Injuries & Suspensions
Benfica:
- None reported.
AZ Alkmaar:
- None reported.
Betting Tips: Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar
Below are three data-driven betting angles for this Europa League clash:
- Result Tip: Back Benfica Draw No Bet or Benfica to win. Their Europa League record of 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, plus 14 goals in 3 home matches, suggests a strong edge, even though the official win probabilities are listed as 33% for each outcome. Benfica’s proven firepower and home advantage in Lisbon make them the more reliable side.
- Goals Tip: Consider over 2.5 total goals. Benfica’s Europa League matches average 4.2 goals per game (19 scored, 6 conceded across 6 fixtures), and 4 of their 6 games have gone over 2.5 goals according to their tournament under/over record. Even with AZ’s lack of data, Benfica’s attacking profile alone supports a goals-based angle.
- Value Tip: Look at a Benfica win with V. Pavlidis to score anytime (if such a combined market is offered). Pavlidis has 5 goals and 1 assist in just 3 Europa League appearances and also appears among the leaders for yellow cards, indicating he is heavily involved in the action. His central role in Benfica’s attack makes him a logical focal point for a player-based value bet.
Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.
