CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

CSKA Sofia host Qarabag at National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia on 30 July 2026 in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. After a tight 0-0 draw in Baku a week earlier, this decisive clash will determine who advances to the next phase of qualifying.

For CSKA Sofia, home advantage in front of their own fans offers a real opportunity to turn a solid start to European qualifying into progression. They have shown they can score goals in this Europa League campaign, but defensive lapses have also been evident. Qarabag, meanwhile, arrive with a perfect defensive record so far in the competition and a reputation as seasoned European campaigners, looking to build on their goalless home draw and finish the job in Sofia.

With the tie finely poised and both sides unbeaten in Europa League 2026 so far, this fixture shapes up as a classic qualifying decider: CSKA Sofia relying on their attacking output at home, and Qarabag leaning on their outstanding defensive structure and experience.

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Key Stats

• In Europa League 2026, CSKA Sofia are unbeaten across 3 matches, with 2 wins and 1 draw, scoring 5 and conceding 3.
• The most recent meeting on 23 July 2026 in Baku ended Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia in the UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round.
• Qarabag’s Europa League 2026 tournament statistics show 6 goals scored and 0 conceded in 3 matches, with 3 clean sheets.

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag — Tale of the Tape

• Position: Not available vs Not available
• Points: Not available vs Not available
• Goals For: Not available vs Not available
• Goals Against: Not available vs Not available
• Clean Sheets: CSKA Sofia 1 (tournament statistics) vs Qarabag 3 (tournament statistics)

Formal group or league standings are not yet in play at this qualifying stage, but early-round statistics still tell an important story. CSKA Sofia have been involved in more open contests, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per Europa League match (5 for, 3 against over 3 games). They have shown the ability to win both at home and away, but have only one clean sheet so far.

Qarabag’s Europa League campaign has been built on defensive solidity. Across their 3 qualifiers, they have scored 6 goals (2.0 per match on average) and, crucially, have yet to concede. Two home games and one away outing have all ended with clean sheets, underlining a well-drilled back line and effective game management. With the tie level after the first leg, that defensive resilience could be decisive in Sofia.

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Key Matchups

CSKA Sofia attack vs Qarabag defensive unit

CSKA Sofia’s Europa League 2026 numbers point to a side that can create and convert chances. They have scored 5 goals in 3 matches, including a high-scoring 3-2 home win and a 2-1 away victory as their biggest wins. Their average of 3.0 goals for at home in this competition shows they can be explosive at National Stadium Vasil Levski, though they have also conceded 2.0 per home game, highlighting a risk-reward approach.

That attacking intent meets a Qarabag side with flawless defensive tournament statistics. Qarabag have played 3 Europa League qualifiers, winning 3-0 at home and 3-0 away among their biggest victories, and have not conceded a single goal (0.0 goals against on average). Their last-five defensive index sits at 100 in the comparison model, reflecting how hard they are to break down. Whether CSKA’s forward line can finally breach this defence will be central to the outcome.

CSKA Sofia back line vs Qarabag’s clinical edge

On the other side of the ball, CSKA Sofia’s defence has been more vulnerable. They have allowed 3 goals in 3 Europa League matches, with a notable pattern of conceding in the 31–60 and 76–90 minute windows. Their average of 1.0 goal conceded per game, and 2.0 per home match, suggests they can be opened up, especially late on.

Qarabag, by contrast, combine their defensive strength with efficient attacking. With 6 goals in 3 games and an away average of 3.0 goals scored, they have shown they can travel and still dominate in the final third. Their biggest away win of 3-0 underlines that they are comfortable playing on the front foot even outside Azerbaijan. If CSKA are forced to chase the game, Qarabag’s counter-attacking and set-piece threat could exploit the spaces that open up.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides are becoming familiar foes in European and friendly settings, with Qarabag generally having the better of recent encounters.

• 23 July 2026: Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia (UEFA Europa League)
• 27 June 2026: CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag (Friendlies Clubs) – Match Cancelled
• 4 July 2023: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag (Friendlies Clubs)
• 7 July 2021: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag (Friendlies Clubs)

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Prediction

Stats suggest a finely balanced second leg, but with a clear stylistic contrast. CSKA Sofia have been more open and attack-minded, particularly at home, while Qarabag have built their Europa League run on control and clean sheets. The first leg in Baku finished 0-0, reflecting Qarabag’s ability to limit chances but also CSKA’s defensive discipline on the night.

The prediction model gives Qarabag and the draw equal top billing at 45% each, with CSKA Sofia rated at just a 10% chance of winning in regulation time. That implies a high likelihood of another tight contest, where Qarabag’s experience and defensive organisation keep them in control, but CSKA’s home advantage and attacking numbers mean they cannot be discounted. With no reliable goals threshold projection (the goals figures provided are thresholds rather than exact scores), a conservative forecast is appropriate.

Predicted Score: CSKA Sofia 1-1 Qarabag

CSKA Sofia Recent Form

CSKA Sofia’s recent Europa League form is strong: 2 wins and 1 draw from 3 matches. They have shown they can win both home and away, including a 3-2 home victory and a 2-1 success on the road, while also grinding out a 0-0 draw in Baku against Qarabag. Offensively they average 1.7 goals per match, but defensive lapses have seen them concede 1.0 per game, with goals allowed particularly around half-time and in the closing stages.

Qarabag Recent Form

Qarabag mirror CSKA’s unbeaten Europa League run with 2 wins and 1 draw, but their performances have been more controlled. They have recorded 3-0 wins at home and away and then held CSKA to a 0-0 draw in the first leg. Their attack averages 2.0 goals per match, while their defence remains perfect with 0 goals conceded. This blend of efficiency in attack and complete defensive solidity underpins their status as slight favourites to progress.

CSKA Sofia Possible Starting Lineup

GK: D. Evtimov or F. Lapoukhov or D. Nikolov; Defenders: J. Gbamin, T. Ivanov, Adrián Lapeña, Á. Martino, Pastor, Facundo Santiago Rodríguez, A. Tunchev, A. Yordanov, Tamimou Ouorou; Midfielders: G. Chorbadzhiyski, M. Ebong, J. Eto'o, J. Iliev, Bruno Jordão, V. Kaymakanov, A. Nikolov, P. Panayotov, S. Sensi, I. Solet Bomawoko, M. Brahimi, Léo Pereira, A. Piedrahita; Forwards: K. Dodaj, S. Godoy, M. Phaëton, I. Pittas, R. Zhivkov, J. Zwarts.

CSKA Sofia have used a variety of systems in Europa League 2026 — 4-3-1-2, 3-5-2 and 4-4-2 — across their 3 fixtures, reflecting tactical flexibility. With several options in defence and midfield, they can adapt between a back four and a back three depending on game state. Their single tournament clean sheet suggests they may look for a more balanced setup here, perhaps keeping an extra defender or holding midfielder to guard against Qarabag’s counters, while still relying on a deep pool of forwards such as M. Phaëton, I. Pittas and J. Zwarts to find the crucial goal.

Qarabag Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Kochalski, Ş. Məhəmmədəliyev or M. Zlomislić; Defenders: Dani Bolt, J. Gnali, A. Hüseynov, B. Hüseynov, Bruno Langa, Matheus Silva, K. Medina, B. Mustafazadə, S. Niftiyev, B. Varkonyi; Midfielders: E. Cəfərquliyev, Č. Makreckis, H. Jabrayilzade, H. Ibrahim, M. Imamaliyev, M. Janković, Kady, Nicat Khasiyev, Samuel Lobato, Joni Montiel, Mehdi Mutallimli, Pedro Bicalho, A. Bashirov, O. Kashchuk, J. Mouaddib; Forwards: R. Cephas, Behruz Qurbanli, M. Qurbanlı, Z. Sawo, R. Almeyda.

Qarabag have been consistent tactically, using a 4-2-3-1 formation in all 3 Europa League matches so far. This shape underpins their three clean sheets, with a solid back four protected by a double pivot and a flexible attacking band behind the striker. With multiple experienced defenders and creative midfielders like Kady and Joni Montiel available, they can maintain defensive security while still posing a threat on the break and from set pieces in Sofia.

CSKA Sofia Team News

No significant absences reported.

Qarabag Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

CSKA Sofia:

• None reported.

Qarabag:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Qarabag Draw No Bet. The prediction model rates CSKA Sofia at 10%, with both the draw and a Qarabag win at 45% each, underlining Qarabag’s slight edge. The market broadly agrees: away odds range from 2.25 to 2.40 (implied probability roughly 41.7%–44.4%), while home odds sit between 2.90 and 3.15 (about 31.7%–34.5%). Taking Qarabag with draw protection aligns with their unbeaten, three-clean-sheet Europa League run and their superior defensive metrics.
• Goals Tip: Under 2.5 goals. The first leg finished 0-0, and Qarabag have not conceded in 3 Europa League matches, while CSKA’s attack will face their toughest defensive test yet. Despite CSKA’s higher home-scoring average, Qarabag’s controlled style and the high stakes of a qualifier decider point towards a cagey affair with limited goals. Look for under-goals pricing in the main totals market to reflect this pattern.
• Value Tip: Draw in 90 minutes. With the prediction model assigning 45% to the draw and 45% to a Qarabag win, the stalemate is a live outcome. Draw odds range from 3.10 to 3.30 across bookmakers, implying roughly 30.3%–32.3% probability — significantly lower than the 45% assessment from the prediction data. That gap suggests potential value in backing the game to be level after 90 minutes, especially given the 0-0 first leg and Qarabag’s strong defence.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.