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CSKA Sofia vs OFI Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

CSKA Sofia welcome OFI to National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia on 27 August 2026 for the second leg of their UEFA Europa League play-off tie. After a bruising first meeting in Heraklion, the Bulgarian side face a major task to turn this around in front of their own fans.

OFI took full control of the tie with a 3-0 home win on 20 August 2026 at Pagritio, leaving CSKA Sofia needing a near-perfect performance to have any chance of reaching the Europa League group stage. For OFI, this is now about game management and avoiding complacency, while CSKA must balance chasing goals with not leaving themselves exposed to the counter-attack.

With a group-stage place and significant prize money on the line, this play-off second leg has high stakes for both clubs. Bettors will be weighing up CSKA’s strong overall Europa record this season against OFI’s dominance in the first leg and perfect defensive record so far.

CSKA Sofia vs OFI Key Stats

  • Across 7 Europa League matches this season, CSKA Sofia have 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 9.
  • The only previous meeting between these sides came on 20 August 2026, when OFI beat CSKA Sofia 3-0 in Heraklion in the Europa League play-offs.
  • CSKA Sofia’s tournament statistics show 3 clean sheets in 7 matches, while OFI have kept 1 clean sheet in their only Europa League game so far.

CSKA Sofia vs OFI — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: Not available vs Not available
  • Points: Not available vs Not available
  • Goals For: 10 (CSKA Sofia, 7 matches) vs 3 (OFI, 1 match)
  • Goals Against: 9 (CSKA Sofia) vs 0 (OFI)
  • Clean Sheets: 3 (CSKA Sofia tournament statistics) vs 1 (OFI tournament statistics)

There is no group-table data available for either side, but the broader Europa League statistics give a clear picture of their paths to this play-off. CSKA Sofia have been busy, playing 7 matches with a generally positive record and a goal difference of +1, suggesting a side that can both score and concede.

OFI’s sample size is much smaller, but their single Europa League outing – the 3-0 first-leg win over CSKA – was emphatic. They averaged 3.0 goals for and 0.0 against in that match, underlining both their attacking sharpness and defensive organisation. The second leg will test whether that performance was a one-off peak or a sign of a side genuinely ready for group-stage football.

CSKA Sofia vs OFI Key Matchups

Bruno Jordão vs OFI’s back line

Bruno Jordão has been CSKA Sofia’s most productive attacking midfielder in Europa League action so far. In 2 appearances he has scored 1 goal and also appears among the club’s leading contributors in the assists rankings. His ability to arrive late in the box and contribute directly to goals is crucial for a CSKA side that need to chase the tie.

OFI’s defence, meanwhile, has yet to concede in this Europa League campaign, with 0 goals against from their 1 match and a clean sheet in the 3-0 win over CSKA. The Greek side’s back line will again look to stay compact and deny Jordão space between the lines. If CSKA are to mount a comeback, Jordão’s creativity and goal threat from midfield must find a way through this disciplined unit.

Pastor vs OFI’s wide threats

Defender Pastor has quietly become one of CSKA Sofia’s key outlets. In Europa League play he has 2 appearances and has already provided 1 assist, placing him among the competition’s top assist providers for his club. His contribution suggests he is an important part of CSKA’s build-up, likely overlapping or stepping into advanced areas.

Against OFI, who used a 3-4-3 formation in their only Europa League match, Pastor’s defensive responsibilities will be as important as his attacking ones. The Greek side’s wing-backs and wide forwards can overload flanks, so Pastor must balance his forward runs with the need to protect against counters. His duel with OFI’s wide players could shape whether CSKA can pin the visitors back or are repeatedly exposed in transition.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These clubs have only just begun their European rivalry, with the first leg in Greece setting the tone for this play-off tie.

  • 20 August 2026: OFI 3-0 CSKA Sofia (UEFA Europa League)

CSKA Sofia vs OFI Prediction

Stats suggest a clash of narratives. Over the broader Europa campaign, CSKA Sofia look the more established side: 4 wins from 7, 10 goals scored, and 3 clean sheets show they are capable of grinding out results. Their attacking averages of 1.4 goals for and 1.3 against per match indicate open games where they both create and allow chances.

However, the most relevant data point is the recent 3-0 defeat in Heraklion. OFI’s Europa numbers are built entirely on that match: 3.0 goals scored per game, none conceded, and a penalty successfully converted. Their “Recent Form” in the competition is perfect, with a 100 out of 100 defensive index in the comparison block and a clean sheet already banked.

The prediction model gives OFI a 45% chance of winning again, with CSKA Sofia at just 10% and the draw also at 45%. That points towards a very cautious approach from the visitors, who can afford to sit deep and protect a big aggregate lead, while CSKA must chase the game. The bookmakers, though, see things differently: home-win odds range from 1.58 to 1.65 (roughly 60.6%–63.3% implied probability), making CSKA Sofia a clear market favourite on the night, with OFI priced between 5.00 and 5.80 (about 17.2%–20.0% implied probability).

Balancing those perspectives, the most likely scenario is that CSKA Sofia respond strongly at home, but OFI’s defensive structure and aggregate advantage help them avoid defeat. A tight match where the hosts edge it without overturning the tie looks plausible.

Predicted Score: CSKA Sofia 1-0 OFI

CSKA Sofia Recent Form

CSKA Sofia’s Europa League recent form in tournament statistics reads WWDWWLL across 7 matches. That sequence shows a strong mid-run of four unbeaten games followed by two defeats, one of which was the heavy 3-0 loss to OFI. They average 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match, with 3 clean sheets and only 2 matches in which they failed to score, underlining their usual attacking consistency.

OFI Recent Form

OFI’s Europa League form line is short but perfect: a single match, a 3-0 win at home. Their recent tournament form can only be described as excellent, with 3 goals scored, none conceded, and a penalty successfully converted. While the sample is limited, it gives them strong momentum heading into this second leg.

CSKA Sofia Possible Starting Lineup

Likely key players (not a confirmed XI): D. Evtimov (GK); Pastor, Adrián Lapeña, Á. Martino, Facundo Santiago Rodríguez (defenders); Bruno Jordão, M. Ebong, S. Sensi, M. Brahimi (midfielders); I. Pittas, J. Zwarts (attackers).

CSKA Sofia have used a variety of formations in Europa League play — most often 4-3-3, but also 4-3-1-2, 3-5-2, 4-4-2 and 4-1-4-1. That tactical flexibility suggests they may opt for an aggressive shape here, likely with three forwards and attack-minded full-backs such as Pastor pushing high. With 10 goals in 7 matches and only 2 games without scoring, they will trust their offensive depth, but must be wary of the 9 goals conceded and the risk of being caught out if they overcommit.

OFI Possible Starting Lineup

Likely key players: N. Christogeorgos (GK); L. Dickmann, Borja González, N. Marinakis, D. Nikolaou (defenders); A. Bouchalakis, G. Kanellópoulos, T. Androutsos, Aitor Cantalapiedra (midfielders); T. Fountas, A. Leya (attackers).

OFI lined up in a 3-4-3 in their only Europa League match and may stick with that system after its success in the first leg. With 3 goals scored and a clean sheet, their balance between attack and defence looked excellent. Expect a compact back three, energetic wing-backs and a front line ready to counter into the spaces CSKA must leave as they chase goals. Their perfect defensive record in the competition so far will encourage a pragmatic, risk-averse approach.

CSKA Sofia Team News

No significant absences reported.

OFI Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

CSKA Sofia:

  • None reported.

OFI:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: CSKA Sofia vs OFI

Exactly 3 distinct betting angles, drawn from probabilities, form, and available odds:

  • Result Tip: CSKA Sofia to win (Home). The prediction model leans towards OFI on qualification, but for this single match CSKA are strong favourites with bookmakers at 1.58–1.65, implying around a 60.6%–63.3% chance of a home win. With 4 wins in 7 Europa matches and home advantage as they chase the tie, backing CSKA to win in 90 minutes aligns with both urgency and market pricing.
  • Goals Tip: Under 3.5 total goals. CSKA Sofia average 2.7 total goals per match in Europa (1.4 for, 1.3 against), while OFI’s only game finished 3-0. OFI are likely to sit deep to protect their aggregate lead, which should naturally suppress scoring. Although specific under/over odds for this fixture are not listed, the pattern of CSKA’s under/over distribution (5 of 7 matches under 2.5 and all 7 under 3.5 in their tournament statistics) supports a conservative goals angle. Look for the best available under 3.5 price with your bookmaker.
  • Value Tip: CSKA Sofia win & under 3.5 goals (Bet Builder / Combo). CSKA’s need to win, combined with OFI’s strong defence (0 goals conceded in Europa so far), points towards a tight home victory rather than a goal-fest. With Bruno Jordão and Pastor contributing in attack but CSKA still averaging only 1.4 goals per game, a narrow margin win (1-0 or 2-0) looks realistic. Combining a CSKA win with under 3.5 goals should offer a higher price than the straight home win; check markets around the 1.58–1.65 home odds range for enhanced value on such combos.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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