CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: UEFA Europa League Preview
CSKA Sofia host Maccabi Tel Aviv at National Stadium Vasil Levski in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round, with the tie finely balanced in narrative terms but heavily tilted towards the Bulgarians on recent evidence. CSKA come into this second leg after a dominant 3–0 “away” win in Batumi a week earlier, putting them firmly in control of the matchup despite this being a neutral-venue series rather than a classic home-and-away in true home stadiums.
From the official prediction model, CSKA Sofia are rated as the more likely side to avoid defeat, with a 45% chance of a home win, 45% probability of a draw, and only 10% for a Maccabi victory. The recommendation is explicit: “Double chance: CSKA Sofia or draw,” and the winner tag is assigned to CSKA with the comment “Win or draw”. That already frames this as a spot where the market might be slightly underestimating CSKA’s floor rather than their ceiling.
Looking at recent tournament form from the prediction data, CSKA Sofia’s league form string is “WWDWW”, meaning they are unbeaten in five Europa League fixtures this campaign with four wins and one draw. Across those five matches they have scored 9 goals (1.8 per game) and conceded just 3 (0.6 per game). Their last-five performance indices underline this: form 87, attack 69, defense 77. They have also kept 3 clean sheets in those 5 games, failing to score only once.
Maccabi Tel Aviv’s Europa League form is shorter but more volatile: “WWL”. In three matches they have scored 6 goals (2.0 per game) and conceded 3 (1.0 per game). Their last-five indices show form 67, attack 46, defense 77. The defensive rating is similar to CSKA’s, but the attack index is clearly lower, reflecting that their impressive 5–0 away win skews the numbers while they have otherwise struggled to create consistently, especially at “home” where they have only 1 goal in 2 games and have conceded 3.
The time-distribution of goals also favors CSKA in terms of sustained threat. They have scored in almost every 15-minute segment between 0–90 minutes, with particular productivity in the 16–30 range. Maccabi spread their goals fairly evenly too, but their conceded goals cluster early (0–30) and late (76–90), which is dangerous against a side like CSKA that keeps pressure throughout.
Head-to-Head
Head-to-head data is limited but emphatic: there is one competitive meeting on record in this campaign. On 6 August 2026 at Batumi Arena, Maccabi Tel Aviv were the designated home team and lost 0–3 to CSKA Sofia. CSKA led 2–0 at half-time and closed out a clean sheet, underscoring both their attacking edge and defensive solidity against this specific opponent. The comparison block reflects that dominance: the h2h index reads 100 for CSKA, 0 for Maccabi, and the goals sub-index is also 100–0 in CSKA’s favor.
The comparison totals give CSKA a 59.3 to 40.7 advantage overall, with a form index of 68–32 and attack 60–40. Defense is rated level at 50–50, which aligns with both teams having multiple clean sheets, but CSKA’s better balance between scoring and preventing goals makes them the more reliable side over 90 minutes.
Odds and Betting Verdict
Turning to the odds, the market prices this closer than the model. Home odds range from 2.23 to 2.41, implying an unadjusted probability band of roughly 41–45% for a CSKA win. Draw odds sit between 2.98 and 3.40 (about 29–34%), while away prices of 2.73 to 3.14 translate to around 32–37%. So bookmakers see this as a near coin-flip between CSKA and Maccabi, with only a slight lean to the hosts, whereas the official prediction gives Maccabi just a 10% chance to win outright and strongly favors CSKA not to lose.
That discrepancy creates the clearest betting angle. With the model advising “Double chance: CSKA Sofia or draw” at a combined 90% probability, and the market effectively pricing a Maccabi win in the low-to-mid 30s, backing against Maccabi looks value-positive.
Betting verdict: The data-driven play is to follow the official advice and back CSKA Sofia on the double chance (CSKA or draw). For those seeking more risk, a small stake on CSKA Sofia to win in 90 minutes is also justifiable given their unbeaten run, the 3–0 first-leg statement, and the comparison indices that clearly favor the Bulgarian side.
