Celje vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

This UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round second leg in Celje sets up a fascinating clash between Celje and Ararat-Armenia. The tie returns to Slovenia after the Armenian side claimed a 2-1 home win in Yerevan on 4 August 2026, putting the visitors narrowly ahead on aggregate but leaving everything still to play for.

Celje will look to make home advantage in Celje count, knowing that a single-goal victory could be enough to turn the tie around depending on the aggregate scenario. Ararat-Armenia, meanwhile, arrive with confidence after another head-to-head success and with stronger recent Champions League form overall, but must now show they can manage the game away from home.

With a place in the Champions League play-off round on the line, this match offers a compelling mix for bettors and neutrals alike: Celje’s high-scoring home profile against Ararat-Armenia’s better defensive record and perfect head-to-head record so far in European competition.

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia Key Stats

• Celje’s Champions League campaign so far: 1 win, 1 draw, 1 defeat across 3 matches, with 7 goals scored and 7 conceded.
• Head-to-head: Ararat-Armenia have won both previous meetings, 2-1 on 4 August 2026 in the Champions League and 1-0 after extra time on 24 September 2020 in the Europa League.
• Ararat-Armenia’s Champions League statistics: 3 wins and 2 defeats in 5 games, scoring 9 and conceding 6, with 2 clean sheets.

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia — Tale of the Tape

• Position: Not available vs Not available
• Points: Not available vs Not available
• Goals For: Not available vs Not available
• Goals Against: Not available vs Not available
• Clean Sheets: Celje 0 (tournament statistics) vs Ararat-Armenia 2 (tournament statistics)

Group standings data is not available for either side, but the Champions League statistics provide a clear picture of how both teams have approached qualifying so far. Celje have played 3 matches, scoring and conceding at a rate of 2.3 per game (7 for, 7 against). That profile underlines their open, high-variance style: they can hurt opponents but also leave gaps at the back.

Ararat-Armenia have a larger sample of 5 matches, with 9 goals scored (1.8 per game) and only 6 conceded (1.2 per game). Importantly, they have already kept 2 clean sheets, all at home, and have yet to fail to score in this campaign. While their away record includes both of their defeats, their overall balance between attack and defence looks more stable than Celje’s.

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia Key Matchups

Sandro Lima vs Celje back line

Sandro Lima is Ararat-Armenia’s key attacking reference in this Champions League run. The 35-year-old attacker has made 5 appearances, all as a starter, and has 1 goal to his name. While that output is modest, his consistent presence (5 lineups) and 79 minutes logged suggest he is trusted as the focal point in the final third. Against a Celje defence that has conceded 7 goals in just 3 matches, his movement and experience could be decisive, especially if Ararat-Armenia look to counter and protect their aggregate advantage.

Zidane Banjaqui vs Celje midfield

Zidane Banjaqui has been a high-impact rotational midfielder for Ararat-Armenia. Across 5 appearances, he has only started twice and played 18 minutes overall, yet he already has 1 assist in this Champions League campaign. He also carries a disciplinary edge with 2 yellow cards, underlining his combative style. His ability to provide a key pass or assist in limited minutes makes him an important weapon off the bench, particularly if Ararat-Armenia need to exploit spaces as Celje chase the game.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides have met twice in European competition, both times in Armenia, with Ararat-Armenia emerging victorious on each occasion. Celje are still searching for their first positive result in this matchup.

• 4 August 2026: Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Celje (UEFA Champions League)
• 24 September 2020: Ararat-Armenia 1-0 Celje (AET) (UEFA Europa League)

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction

Stats suggest a finely balanced second leg despite the one-sided head-to-head history. Celje’s Champions League form line of DWL shows inconsistency but also attacking potency, with 7 goals in 3 games and no failures to score. Their home match so far produced a 3-2 win, highlighting both their offensive threat and defensive vulnerability.

Ararat-Armenia arrive with a stronger overall Champions League form of WLWLW, 3 wins from 5 and a better defensive record. Their last-five index is stronger in form (60 vs Celje’s 44), attack (47 vs 37) and defence (68 vs 63). The prediction model leans clearly towards the visitors not losing, giving Celje only a 10% chance of victory, with both the draw and Ararat-Armenia win rated at 45% each. That points to a high probability that the Armenian side will at least protect their aggregate lead.

Given Celje’s tendency to be involved in high-scoring games (all three matches over 1.5 goals) and Ararat-Armenia’s ability to find the net in every Champions League outing so far, another open contest is likely. However, with Ararat-Armenia able to play more reactively and Celje forced to chase, a narrow home win or a draw feels the most realistic outcome on the night, even if Ararat-Armenia remain favourites to progress overall.

Predicted Score: Celje 1-1 Ararat-Armenia

Celje Recent Form

Celje’s Champions League recent form reads DWL. Across 3 matches they have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 7. At home they have played 1 match, winning it 3-2, while away they have drawn once and lost once. They have yet to keep a clean sheet but have scored in every game, underlining a strong attacking output balanced by defensive fragility.

Ararat-Armenia Recent Form

Ararat-Armenia’s Champions League form is WLWLW over 5 matches. They have 3 wins and 2 defeats, all three victories coming at home and both losses away. With 9 goals scored and 6 conceded, they combine a solid attack with a relatively tight defence, especially at home where they have allowed just 1 goal in 3 games. They also have 2 clean sheets and have not failed to score in any match so far.

Celje Possible Starting Lineup

GK: Ž. Frelih or S. Sluga; Defenders: Ł. Bejger, David Castro, A. Dionkou, L. Koútris, P. Širvys, A. Tutyškinas, G. Vodeb, N. Vukasović, D. Vukliševič, I. Ćalušić; Midfielders: M. Zabukovnik, Papa Mustapha Daniel, D. Hrka, F. Jevšenak, M. Kvesić, T. Letonja, R. Požeg, J. Pranjić, S. Sešlar, M. Avdyli, Y. Dukuly, M. Ivanšek, V. Tusha, B. Verbič; Forwards: A. Kotnik, A. Kucys, M. Poplatnik, D. Suhovrsnik.

Celje have used a variety of systems in this Champions League campaign — 4-4-2, 4-3-3 and 3-4-3 — across their 3 matches, underlining tactical flexibility. With no clean sheets and 7 goals conceded, the choice of defensive personnel and shape will be critical. Expect a front line built around A. Kotnik and experienced finisher M. Poplatnik, supported by creative midfielders like S. Sešlar and B. Verbič, as Celje must chase goals while trying to avoid being exposed in transition.

Ararat-Armenia Possible Starting Lineup

GK: A. Nersesyan or Joao Bravim; Defenders: E. Grigoryan, K. Hovhannisyan, Junior Julio, Luís Felipe, A. Malis, Hugo Oliveira, Bruno Pereira, Bruno Wilson; Midfielders: A. Tera, A. Ambartsumyan, M. Ayvazyan, J. Balanta, Zidane Banjaqui, M. Carlier, M. Hovhannisyan, K. Muradyan, E. Poghosyan, Franҫa, A. Serobyan, Z. Shaghoyan; Forwards: P. Ayongo, A. Eloyan, A. Ndour, Sandro Lima.

Ararat-Armenia have predominantly lined up in a 4-3-3 (4 matches) with a single outing in a 3-4-3, suggesting a preference for width and a solid midfield three. Sandro Lima is likely to lead the line, with support from wide attackers such as P. Ayongo or A. Ndour. At the back, players like Bruno Wilson and Hugo Oliveira offer physical presence and discipline, key to withstanding Celje’s pressure. With a 2-1 first-leg lead, expect a slightly more conservative setup, looking to strike on the counter.

Celje Team News

No significant absences reported.

Ararat-Armenia Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Celje:

• None reported.

Ararat-Armenia:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Celje vs Ararat-Armenia

Exactly 3 distinct markets are considered below, based on current form, statistical profiles and available odds.

• Result Tip: Back Celje to win in 90 minutes. The prediction model gives Celje only a 10% chance of victory, with draw and Ararat-Armenia win both at 45%, but the market strongly favours the home side: Celje are priced between 1.36 and 1.48, implying an approximate probability range of 67.6% to 73.5%. Given their strong home scoring record (3 goals in their only home tie) and the need to overturn the deficit, the home win is the market-backed outcome. Representative odds: Home win at around 1.42–1.48.
• Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. Celje’s Champions League matches have averaged 4.6 total goals (7 scored, 7 conceded in 3 games), with all three fixtures going over 1.5. Ararat-Armenia average 3.0 total goals per match (9 for, 6 against in 5 games), and the first leg finished 2-1. With both teams scoring freely and neither having failed to score yet, over 1.5 goals looks a high-probability play. This market is not explicitly priced in the odds block, but it will typically be much shorter than match-winner odds.
• Value Tip: Ararat-Armenia double chance (Draw or Away). The prediction model explicitly advises “draw or Ararat-Armenia and +1.5 goals”, and assigns 45% to the draw and 45% to the away win, versus only 10% for Celje. Yet bookmakers have Ararat-Armenia as clear underdogs, with away win odds ranging from 6.00 to 7.50 (implied probability roughly 13.3% to 16.7%). While double-chance prices are not listed, they will still reflect a generous margin compared with a 90% combined model probability for draw/away. This mismatch between model probabilities and market pricing makes backing Ararat-Armenia on the double-chance a plausible value angle.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.