Portugal Begins UEFA Nations League Defence Against Wales
Portugal begin the defence of their UEFA Nations League crown on Thursday night with a familiar weight on their shoulders and a very familiar figure up front. The holders open their 2026-27 campaign at home to Wales, chasing a third title in a competition they have come to treat as their own.
They won the inaugural edition in 2019, edging Netherlands 1-0 in Porto. They climbed back to the top again in 2025, this time surviving a penalty shootout against Spain. No nation has lifted the trophy more often. No one needs reminding in Lisbon.
Now comes a new chapter.
New era, same expectations
Jorge Jesus steps into the technical area for the first time as Portugal head coach, having taken over on July 10 following Roberto Martinez’s exit after the 2026 World Cup. He inherits a squad still stung by that tournament – and still stacked with talent.
Portugal’s run in 2026 ended abruptly in the last 16, beaten 1-0 by eventual champions Spain. That defeat was their first since November 2025 and snapped a long unbeaten stretch that had built serious momentum. It also cast doubt over the international future of Cristiano Ronaldo.
Those doubts did not last.
At 41, Ronaldo has been recalled and is expected to start, chasing yet more goals for a national-team tally that already stands at 146. His presence alone will dominate the build-up, but Jesus has made it clear this is his Portugal now, not a nostalgia tour.
The framework around Ronaldo looks strong. Diogo Costa is in line to start in goal. At the back, the experience of Ruben Dias should anchor a defence likely to include Joao Cancelo and Nuno Mendes, with promising centre-back options such as Antonio Silva or Goncalo Inacio pushing for minutes alongside Dias and youngster João Veiga in the mix.
Midfield is where Portugal can suffocate opponents. Vitinha, Joao Neves and Bruno Fernandes are expected to form the core, a blend of control, energy and incision. Ahead of them, Pedro Neto and Joao Felix offer width and invention, feeding the captain who refuses to fade from the international stage.
Portugal sit in Group 4 of League A, alongside Wales, Denmark and Norway. It is a demanding section, home-and-away fixtures deciding who reaches the quarter-finals. After Wales, Jesus takes his side to Norway before October trips to Denmark and a home rematch with the Norwegians. The margin for error is slim, but the standard is high.
Recent form underlines the sense of a powerhouse reloading rather than rebuilding: across all competitions, Portugal’s last six results read WDWDWL.
Wales back at the top table, but stretched
For Wales, the backdrop is very different.
Craig Bellamy’s team missed out on the 2026 World Cup, falling to Bosnia-Herzegovina in the playoff semi-finals in March. That failure still lingers over the squad, and the Nations League now offers a stage to reset their trajectory against elite opposition.
They arrive in League A on merit. Promotion from League B in 2024-25 restored their place among the continent’s heavyweights, and their overall Nations League record – 10 wins, five draws and seven defeats from 22 matches – shows they know how to navigate this format.
Recent results have been mixed. Draws with Northern Ireland and Ghana in friendlies suggested resilience, but a 2-1 defeat to Romania last time out exposed familiar frailties. Across their last six outings in all competitions, Wales read WWLDDL – a run that flickers between promise and concern.
History does not offer much comfort. Wales have met Portugal four times and won only once, a friendly way back in May 1951. Their single competitive clash came on the biggest of stages: the Euro 2016 semi-final, when goals from Cristiano Ronaldo and Nani sealed a 2-0 win and sent Portugal to the final – and ultimately to the trophy.
Bellamy’s selection headache
If the task was already daunting, the team news makes it tougher.
Wales have suffered a triple blow in the build-up, with Harry Wilson, Nathan Broadhead and Karl Darlow all withdrawing through injury. The absences force Bellamy to reshuffle both his attacking options and his goalkeeping depth.
In response, Leicester City’s David Cornell, Huddersfield Town forward Joe Taylor and Reading midfielder Charlie Savage have been drafted in. They join a squad that is also missing Joe Rodon, Dylan Lawlor, Rubin Colwill and Isaak Davies. It is not the ideal moment to walk into the home of the Nations League’s most successful side.
The likely XI still carries threat. Danny Ward should start in goal behind a back four of Neco Williams, Ben Cabango, Rhys Norrington-Davies and Jay Dasilva. Ethan Ampadu and Jordan James are expected to form the midfield screen, tasked with disrupting Portugal’s rhythm and springing counters.
Higher up, David Brooks, Luke Thomas and Brennan Johnson are set to support Daniel James, who may operate through the middle. James’s pace will be Wales’s sharpest weapon on the break, especially if Portugal commit bodies forward and leave space behind their full-backs.
Wales’s schedule offers no breathing room either: Denmark away on September 27, Norway at home on October 1, then Denmark in Cardiff on October 4. This trip to Portugal is the toughest start imaginable to a gruelling run.
Predicted lineups
Portugal possible starting XI:
- Costa;
- Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes;
- Vitinha, J Neves;
- Neto, Fernandes, Felix;
- Ronaldo
Wales possible starting XI:
- Ward;
- N Williams, Cabango, Norrington-Davies, Dasilva;
- Ampadu, J James;
- Brooks, Thomas, Johnson;
- D James
Prediction
The gulf in depth is hard to ignore. Portugal arrive as double winners of this competition, at home, with a new coach eager to make a statement and a 41-year-old icon chasing more records. Wales, promoted and ambitious, are also depleted and still searching for a post-World Cup identity.
With Portugal’s attacking options and Wales stripped of several key players, the smart money leans one way.
Portugal 3-1 Wales.
If that proves accurate, the real question won’t be whether Portugal can get out of this group – it will be who can stop them adding yet another Nations League trophy to their collection.
